Before we get to this week’s tournament I wanted to note that the DP World Tour does not return until January 11th for the Dubai Invitational. I am not 100% sure about how much of the DPWT I am going to cover into 2024 so this might be the end of my coverage for this tour for a bit here.
In the next few weeks, I will still have some golf content coming your way with:
I have a VERY small Q-School card that I posted on the Gamblers Paradise Discord1
my normal season-in-review detailed post that I do for every sport after a season is completed
an educational/ primer on golf betting that will help everyone get ready for the 2024 campaign
Let’s have a great final tournament!
-T
Alfred Dunhill Championship - Recap
Another week on the DP World Tour that ends up being a bit ole miss on the hit-and-miss continuum that we have been on for a bit here as another LIV star runs away with a tournament.
Let’s start with the bad - Bradbury and Ferguson basically didn’t show up. I am not sure what I found a bigger kick in the nuts. Bradbury just milling his way around the course for 2 days or Ferguson looking disinterested halfway through his first round, throwing up a 9 on the final hole (a par 5) and then not even bothering to show up on Friday.
We also saw head-to-heads go back to struggling with a 0-2-2, but that almost feels better given that we were in a big hold after the first round.
At least Elivra and Cockerill showed up. Yes, they both struggled over the weekend, but they both played well enough to get themselves where we needed them after Friday. Unfortunately, they played more toward their history on Saturday but were able to recover enough on Sunday/Monday to salvage our Top 20 bets.
AfrAsia Bank Mauritius Open
The Course
The DP World Tour closes out the calendar year of 2023 by heading the the gorgeous island of Mauritius. This will be the 7th playing of this tournament and the 4th at the Heritage Golf Club in Beau Champ, Mauritius.
The Heritage GC has two 18-hole courses on the property and will leverage the brand new La Réserve course, which was co-designed by Peter Matkovich and Louis Oosthuizen (who is in the field and coming off a win last week) and presents itself as the Indian Ocean’s first and only link-style course. The 156-man field with be facing a course plays to a par of 72 across 7,110 yards.
The History
The 2022 edition saw 3rd favorite Antoin Rozner (14-1) capture his most recent DPWT title when he shot -19 to run away from the field on his way to a 5-stroke victory over Alfredo Garcia-Heredia (60-1), at Mont Choisy. The 2019 tournament was won by 18-year-old Rasmus Hojgaard2 who captured his first professional title when he topped Renato Paratore (50-1) and Antoine Rozner (80-1) in a playoff at the Heritage GC. 2018’s tournament was won by Kurt Kitayama. Kurt shot a tournament record -20 to beat S Chikkarangappa and, my guy, Matthieu Pavon (50-1) by 2 strokes.
Antoine Rozener will be looking to be the first ever person to win back-to-back Maritius Opens3. Kurt Kitayama, Dylan Frittelli, and Arjun Atwal all share the aggregate scoring record for this championship at 268.
The Picks:
Given how amazingly hit-and-miss things have been on the DPWT you will likely notice that I am derisking a bit specifically in the amount of risk per outright bet and the amount of overall risk, but still keeping out a 7 to 1 ratio. Let’s see if we can find a winner while laying out just 3.95u of risk.
Outright
0.9u Matthieu Pavon 14-1
0.45u Louis De Jager 28-1
0.16u Andrea Pavan 80-1
0.14u Joeng Weon Ko 90-1
Top 10
0.25u Matthieu Pavon +150
0.25u Louis De Jager +250
0.125u Andrea Pavan +550
Top 20
0.675u Matthieu Pavon -135
0.25u Andrea Pavan +225
0.25u Dan Huizing +240
0.25u Brandon Stone +265
0.25u Joeng Weon Ko +325
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds. I bet them as I write this so they are live within the 45 min or so of publication.
Good luck with all your action!
These are unofficial plays, which means they are tracked as part of my discord play tracking and will NOT be added to the golf results.
Twin brother of DPTWC Nicolai
No one has ever won 2 of these, let alone back-to-back titles.