Recap - Dubai Desert Classic
Another week and another loser on the DP World Tour that was EVER so close to being a monster winner. It is pretty uncanny how that has happened these last two weeks. Two weeks and two guys finishing 1 stroke back.
This week, we entered Sunday with Meronk tied for 2nd, Rasmus and Olesen inside the Top 10, Fox inside the Top 20, and Du Plessis one stroke off the Top 20.
On Sunday we saw Cam Young ride the struggle bus to open the door to everyone chasing and only Rory was able to walk through it. Meronk was a bit of a disaster down the stretch of his round when he really could have grabbed this win.
Unfortunately, the final round also found Rasmus to be the lesser of the Hojgaard twins, Foxy unable to continue the form from Friday and Saturday, Olesen unable to find a fairway and Du Plessis able to find any sort of short grass to crash out of being able to cash any of those tickets some of them by 1 stroke - If all those guys stay exactly as they were heading into the final round, we cash over 1.5u of profit.
Alas, it was a weekend of college student amateurs as Michael Thorbjornsen, the Stanford Senior, was able to join Adrian Meronk as the only tickets we were able to cash for an incredibly disappointing weekend.
Ras al Khaimah Championship
The course:
The DPWT stays in the United Arab Emirates for a 3rd straight week, this time heading to Ras Al Khamiah for the 3rd edition of this golf tournament! This tournament will take place at the Peter Harradine designed-Al Hamra Golf Club, which plays to a par 72 across 7,400 yards.
Now while this event has only been on the DP World Tour for 2 years, this course has been used for several events over the years:
In 2022, with the Qatar Masters being postponed, the DPWT played a one-off event called the Ras al Khaimah Classic at this course - which was contested in back-to-back weeks with the Ras al Khaimah Championship
The Challenge Tour held regular events here in 2016, 2017, and 20181.
In 2018, this event served as the Challenge Tour’s Grand Final
This course cuts a different challenge than the last weeks. Most importantly, this course uses paspalum across the entirety of the property which is a grass strain that is not used widely. Another key difference this week is that the front 9 is the easier side, but similar to last week, the back 9 is the longer side.
That all said, this course will be easier than last week and the prior winning golfers and their scores show that length off the tee over accuracy will carry the day and will help you to lower scores. This course has Par 5’s that are scorable and the three par 4’s under 400 mean we should see plenty of birdies and eagles this week.
Given it is in the desert, but also close to the coast, wind is always a concern on how it could affect things. As it sits right now, it seems like there should not be a ton of wind, though it seems like the weekend could see a bit of wind.
One other thing to note is that while the last few weeks have seen several PGA Tour players (e.g., Rory, Fleetwood, Hatton, Harman, Cam Young, Nicolai, Meronk, Foxy) playing to start the Middle Eastern swing, they have all headed back to the US for Torrey Pines and/or next week’s tournament at Pebble Beach. That leaves a field of 130 true DP World Tour professionals taking aim in the UAE.
Prior results:
2023 - Daniel Gavins shot -17 to win his 2nd and most recent DP World Tour event to beat Alexander Bjork (50-1) and Zander Lombard by 1 stroke. Now that victory was not without a sweat given what happened on the final hole for Gavins, including 2 shots into the drink and a 25-foot double bogey to hold on.
2022 - Nicolai Hojgaard (30-1) shot -24 to win his 2nd professional tournament when he beat 2nd favorite Jordan Smith (20-1) by 4 strokes
2022 - Ryan Fox (50-1) shot -22 to win his 2nd DPWT tournament when he beat Ross Fisher (100-1) by 5 strokes ← this is the Ras al Khaimah Classic
Last year’s first-round leader was Ryo Hisatsune who shot an 8 under 64, before he went +1 the rest of the way to finish T28. Eventual winner Daniel Gavins found himself 4 strokes back after the first round.
The bets:
Given how dialed in we seem on the DPWT I wanted to open it up this week, but I am keeping it a little tighter from a risk perspective as I am concerned when I do not have a ton of course history and things have always been hit-and-miss for me on the DPWT. Add that on top of us having the Farmers Insurance on the PGA Tour this week (picks here) so I am only going with 5u of risk:
Outright:
0.5u Zander Lombard 25-1
0.32u Hoatong Li 40-1
0.28u Alejandro Del Rey 45-1
0.16u Jayden Schaper 80-1
0.13u Johannes Veerman 100-1
0.1u Matthew Jordan 150-1
T10 (0.25u each)2:
Zander Lombard +225
Alejandro Del Rey +350
Pablo Larrazabal +500
T20:3
1u Zander Lombard +100
0.5u Alejandro Del Rey +150
0.25u Hoatong Li +225
0.25u Pablo Larrazaval +225
0.25u Johannes Veerman +250
0.25u Matthew Jodean +275
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds.
Good luck with all your action!
These tournaments were won by Adri Arnaus -17 (2018), Jens Dantorp -15 (2017), and Jordan Smith -20 (2016)
Edit note: this was originally published missing the staking
Edit Note: this was originally published with this saying “match-ups” and it should have said T20. Both Updates were made a 6:20pm ET on 1/23