If you played my DPWT - Open de España card this week you are sitting with 0.2u ticket on Matthieu Pavon at 90-1.
Well after Round 3, he is 2 strokes up on 2nd place and 4 strokes up on the rest of the field so the question becomes - should I hedge?
I always say that hedging is a personal choice as it is something each person should evaluate for their own risk tolerances and bankroll so I cannot tell you what you should do and you really need to decide for yourself.
First and foremost - if you are going to hedge make sure you have a perfect hedge! That means there are no outcomes that cause you to lose both bets. If you are not sure what I mean, I covered this in more detail in Gambling Lessons Learned Part 4.
Thankfully BetOnline has this market (because I asked them for it)!
Now that you understand that let’s talk what I am personally planning and why
I am betting 5.25u on the Field which would profit 3u
If you find that number odd, let me walk you through why I picked it. While he might lose (those odds imply a greater than 50% chance that happens), I think it is unlikely Pavon will drop fully out of the Top 20 so we win our bet on him there. We also have a +275 bet on Valimaki and while he is just barely into the Top 20 right now, I really like the way he is playing so assuming he stays in the Top 20, we will have a 0.3u profit with this hedge. If Valimaki. If Valimaki falls out of the Top 20, we have a 0.6u loss for the tournament. No sweat with that.
This hedge basically gives us a freeroll for the tournament and if Pavon can go wire-to-wire, we cash our big-ticket and walk out with 10u of profit. Seems like a good deal to me!
Let’s go Matthieu!!!!!!