Alfred Dunhill Links Championship - Recap
The weather absolutely ruined the tournament and ultimately shortened the tournament down to 54 holes that were concluded midday on Monday. This delay also killed my normal schedule hence why I am up before the crack of dawn getting this out!
Ultimately we had a small loss of 1.7u thanks mostly to Ryan Fox coming in right near the top of the leaderboard to cash our Top 10 and T20 tickets on him. Other than Foxy, my card was more or less a disaster area and unfortunately was that way as soon as the wind started to blow on Friday. It was like none of our guys had really understood what links golf might look like and only our Scot (Law) was able to not completely crap himself.
acciona Open de España pres. by Madrid
The DP World Tour travels from Scotland to Continental Europe for the acciona Open de España pres. by Madrid, which is the Spanish National Championship. This year the Open de España is taking place at Club de Camp Villa de Madrid’s Javier Arana-designed Negro course, which plays to a par 71 across 7,110 yards.
The 2022 Open was won by tournament favorite Jon Rahm (5-2 odds) when he shot -25 to crush the field as Matthieu Pavon (60-1) came in 2nd by 6 strokes as Rahm captured his 3rd Open de España in the last 4 playings. The 2021 edition saw Rafa Cabrera-Bello (50-1 odds) shoot -19 to Adri Arnaus (40-1) in a playoff, and the 2019 edition saw 3-1 favorite Jon Rahm (-22) win by beating 3rd favorite Rafa Cabrera-Bello (12-1) by 5 strokes.
The 72-hole record for this tournament since its inception under the current format was achieved last year by Jon Rahm. Rahm will also look to become just the 4th1 person to capture 4 or more Opens de España, which would break a tie with his personal hero, Seve.
Given this new course, using 6.25u on the PGA Tour’s Shriners Open, and some of the wild variability on the DP World Tour, I am going with just 4.5u of risk this week on:
Outright2
0.3u Niklas Norgaard Moller 60-1
0.28u Hennie Du Plessis 65-1
0.22u David Law 80-1
0.2u Sami Valimaki 90-1
0.2u Matthieu Pavon 90-1
0.12u on Louis De Jager 150-1
Top 10 (0.25u each) - EDIT NOTE - I forgot to put the “0.25u each” and this was updated 9:26am ET on 10/10. Hopefully most people had inferred this, but my apologies.
Yannik Paul +275
Niklas Norgaard Moller +450
Hennie Du Plessis +450
Top 20
1u Yannik Paul +125
0.5u Hennie Du Plessis +200
0.25u Niklas Norgaard Moller +200
0.25u Sami Valimaki +275
0.25u Nick Bachem +275
0.25u Matthieu Pavon +275
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds.
Good luck with all your action!
Angel de la Torre has 5. Mariano Provencio and Gabriel Gonzalez each have 4.
Jon Rahm is a wildly overwhelming favorite at +215 and so much like horse racing, I am going to try to take some shots to beat the favorite. This obviously is a high-risk strategy so make sure you are prepared for a loss.