Welcome to the 2024 racing season!! As we start the trail to Kentucky for the running of the roses I wanted to take this opportunity to announce my plan for EXPANDED horse racing coverage this year!!
I know this is content that some folks love so I am going to be doing horse racing picks at least twice a month between now and the Kentucky Derby! A few notes on that plan:
These will be exclusively behind the $5/month paywall12. The reason for this decision is that as much as I love horse racing, I would not normally be laying action on it throughout this period and there is an additional cost to buying the data I need to handicap these picks so I am going to use this paywall to defray my costs3.
My posts will have the paywall removed after the final post time for the day so if folks want to look they can
My hope/plan is to do picks more frequently than twice a month if I can
The picks will mostly be focused on the big prep races, like the Holy Bull!
The Triple Crown cards will still be FREE for all, but those who give support will get the initial card sent to them on Friday and then it will be unlocked for everyone after scratches are announced and updated on my card.
For those of you who are new to my Horse Racing content - it always follows a similar pattern:
A recap from our last race day, including all-time horse racing content stats
Race by race analysis where I give you my favorite horses, by race, and a little bit of breakdown for a few of the races. I am going to do my best to add more commentary this year
My single-race tickets
My multi-race tickets
Breeders Cup Recap
I know it has been quite a while since the Breeders Cup (back in November), but, as always, I think it is required of me to provide transparency to the picks I have posted in the past.
As you can see it was a down day for my card. We were able to hit a small pick 4 to help defray the losses in the multi-ticket space and it was nice to see us get on track a bit with Win tickets.
Note: Going forward there will be a 3rd table in the report I produce that shows 2024 year to date so that everyone can see how the content has performed.
Race-by-Race Analysis:
UPDATED FOR SCRATCHES AT 10:30AM ET
Everything below this line is only available to those who financially support this substack.
Race 1 - 5, 7, 4, 1
Race 2 - 4, 5, 6
Race 3 - 2, 3, 1, 5
Race 4 - 5, 4, 1, 3
Race 5 - 4, 9, 1, 5 ← This might be the best race on the card. This thing is wide open and should be competitive as heck
Race 6 - 5, 1, 6, 4
Race 7 - 8, 9, 2, 4
Race 8 - 5, 1, 7, 2, 3 ← 1 is the best horse here but I am going to try and beat her with the 5 and would not be shocked if the 7 wins or we see a longer shot like 2 or 3 content
Race 9 - 7, 2, 5, 6 ← I get that he has won 4 of his 5 times out at Gulfstream, but I really do not get the price on the 1. If he beats me, so be it - UPDATE THAT 1 scratches
Race 10 - 2, 7, 6, 5, 4 ← It was VERY close for me between the 2 and 7 and I am leaning toward the 2 given the course history (3 race = 2 wins, 1 place). I again am going to try and beat the two short prices for the 4 and 6. I sort of understand the 6 price, but the 4 makes zero sense to me unless you are huge into horses for courses
Race 11 - 9, 5, 6, 4, 3 ← Look, I think the 9 horse is the best on here, but I struggle with that morning line price. At their current prices, I think the 5 and 6 horses both have a bunch of value.
Race 12 - Holy Bull - 7, 3, 1, 8, 2 ← Look, it is hard to look at what Fierceness did at the BC Juvenile back in November and think anything other than this horse will be a real threat when we get to Kentucky in May. Now, that said, the prior start was NOT what you would want to see in a Grade 1. We also have Otello (3) who has had 2 races, including one here last month, where he is 2 for 2 on wins. The numbers have not looked fantastic, but good enough for him to be the rightful 2nd place horse. As we look further down the board, Hades (1) is 2 for 2 at Gulfstream with both wins coming in December and that last win looked REALLY good. SeaStreak (8) ran a strong 2nd to Inveigled (2) in his 2nd to last race at GP and 3rd to Otello (3) here at GP back in January.
My list of race tickets:
Below are my tickets for today’s races and these are based on my analysis and my bankroll. PLEASE make sure you are gambling within your bankroll and your limits!!
For today, I am giving myself a $400 bankroll for all the races today. Now for me, that is equivalent to 4u of sports betting risk.
This does NOT mean you have to bet that much too. If you are someone with a more limited bankroll, PLEASE throttle down the amount wagered to a level that is more comfortable for you (e.g., cut every bet in half).
As always, this will be updated after scratches are announced and I will send out a note to everyone to check back!
The first post is at 12:10 pm ET.
My betting card ($336):
Race 1 - Multiple ($17):
$5 on 5 to Win
$2 Exacta 5, 7 / 1, 4, 5, 7 ($12)
Race 2 - Multiple ($22):
$10 on 4 to Win
$2 Exacta Box 4, 5, 6 ($12)
Race 3 - Pass
Race 4 - Pass
Race 5 - Race 2 - Multiple ($52):
$10 on 4 to Win
$2 Exacta Box 1, 4, 9 ($12)
$0.5 Trifecta Box 1, 4, 5, 9 ($12)
$0.5 Pick 4 - 1, 4, 5, 9 / 5 / 2, 8, 9 / 1, 5, 7 ($18)
Race 6 - Multiple ($58)
$20 Exacta 5 / 1, 6
$2 Pick 3 - 5 / 2, 8, 9 / 1, 5, 7
Race 7 - $5 on 8 to Win
Race 8 - Multiple ($28)
$10 on 5 to Win
$3 Exacta Box 1, 5, 7 ($18)
Race 9 - Multiple ($46):
$10 on 7 to Win
$2 Exacta 2, 7 / 2, 5, 6, 7 ($12)
$0.5 Pick 4 - 2, 5, 6, 7 / 2, 5, 6, 7 / 5, 6, 9 / 7 ($24)
Race 10 - Multiple ($34)
$10 on 7 to Win
$2 Exacta 2, 7 / 2, 5, 6, 7 ($12)
$0.5 Trifecta Box 2, 5, 6, 7 ($12)
Race 11 - $4 Exacta Box 5, 6, 9 ($24)
Race 12 - Multiple ($50)
$20 on 7 to Win
$2 Exacta 3, 7 / 1, 3, 7, 8 ($12)
$1 Trifecta 3, 7 / 1, 3, 7, 8 / 1, 2, 3, 7, 8 ($18)
List of Pick 5 and Pick 4 tickets:
These are HIGH risk / high-reward bets. You should view these are 4 and 5-race parlays so if you are going to do these make sure you fully understand the risk you are taking on here.
For those who are interested in this action, I will always give you a proposed ticket for every sequence offered but will delineate what I am betting/tracking by putting those in italics ($240 / $42) and note that the ones in italics also appear above:
Race 1 - $0.5 Pick 5 - 5, 7 / 4, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 3 / 1, 4, 5 / 1, 4, 5, 9 ($108)
Race 2 - $0.5 Pick 4 - 4, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 3 / 1, 4, 5 / 1, 4, 5, 9 ($54)
Race 5 - $0.5 Pick 4 - 1, 4, 5, 9 / 5 / 2, 8, 9 / 1, 5, 7 ($18)
Race 8 - $0.5 Pick 5 - 1, 5, 7 / 2, 5, 7 / 2, 5, 6, 7 / 5, 6, 9 / 7 ($54)
Race 9 - $0.5 Pick 4 - 2, 5, 6, 7 / 2, 5, 6, 7 / 5, 6, 9 / 7 ($24)
You can also do the annual plan at $50/year
If you cannot afford the $5/month, please let me know and we can work something out. Also, if you would like a sample card, let me know and on a one-time basis, I will be willing to share SOME of a card for you.
I normally just watch these races but do not bet all of them so I normally do not have to buy all the data needed. Given this is a new cost for me, I am asking those who are interested in these picks to help chip in for the additional costs!