As a reminder - As we start the trail to Kentucky for the running of the roses I have EXPANDED horse racing coverage this year!!
I know this is content that some folks love so I am going to be doing horse racing picks at least twice a month between now and the Kentucky Derby! A few notes on that plan:
These will be exclusively behind the $5/month paywall. The reason for this decision is that as much as I love horse racing, I would not normally be laying action on it throughout this period and there is an additional cost to buying the data I need to handicap these picks so I am going to use this paywall to defray my costs.
My posts will have the paywall removed after the final post time for the day so if folks want to look they can
My hope/plan is to do picks more frequently than twice a month if I can
The picks will mostly be focused on the big prep races, like the Holy Bull!
The Triple Crown cards will still be FREE for all, but those who give support will get the initial card sent to them on Friday and then it will be unlocked for everyone after scratches are announced and updated on my card.
For those of you who are new to my Horse Racing content - it always follows a similar pattern:
A recap from our last race day, including all-time horse racing content stats
Race by race analysis where I give you my favorite horses, by race, and a little bit of breakdown for a few of the races. I am going to do my best to add more commentary this year
My single-race tickets
My multi-race tickets
[I am only running the above again in case folks missed it a few weeks ago]
In case you are thinking about signing up - my plan going forward is to do the following races:
March 2 - Fountain of Youth (Gulfstream)
March 9 - Tampa Bay Derby (Tampa Bay Downs)
March 23 - Lousiana Derby (Fair Grounds)
March 30 - Florida Derby (Gulfstream) or Arkansas Derby (Oaklawn)
April 6 - Wood Memorial (Aqueduct) or Blue Grass (Keeneland)
April 13 - Lexington Stakes (Keeneland) ← this will be determined based on how things are going at that point and my personal schedule
May 4 - Kentucky Derby
May 18 - Preakness Stakes
June 8 - Belmont Stakes
Now that is a lot and I can’t promise all of them, but I do still promise at least 2 per month, and if this goes well, I may keep doing content throughout the summer.
Holy Bull Recap
Well, that is certainly NOT how I wanted to start our horse racing year. No sugar coating it, that was really poor handicapping by me. I was off the entire day.
Every time I tried to beat the chalk favorite, the horse would win. Every time I tried to use the chalk, they’d get beat by a long shot.
Add it all up and you end up with a really poor day. Nothing more to say than that so let me talk about the reporting above and how to read it.
You will see 3 tables, each one breaks out by all the different types of tickets that we might bet. The top table shows the all-time record for this substack since tracking began Aug 12, 2022. The next table down (the middle one) will show the results 2024 year to date so if you ever want to see how we are doing this year, that is where to look.
Last, but not least, the bottom table details the results of the last event that was handicapped.
Race-by-Race Analysis:
As always, this will be updated after scratches are announced and I will send out a note to everyone to check back!
I am also giving you my thoughts on each of the stakes races on Rebel Day.
11:35 AM ET - WE ARE OFFICIALLY UPDATED FOR SCRATCHES. LET’S HAVE A DAY!
Everything below this line is only available to those who financially support this substack.
Race 1 - 4, 6, 7, 5
Race 2 - 5, 1, 2, 7
Race 3 - 3, 7, 5
Race 4 - 8, 1, 11, 2, 9
Race 5 - 3, 10, 8, 6, 11
Race 6 - 7, 8, 5, 9, 3
Race 7 - 10, 3, 4, 11
Race 8 - 8, 7, 1, 3, 9 ← This reads really as a two-horse race and I am going to lean towards the horse who has won on this track before rather than the horse shipping in. I am also biased as I was a far bigger fan of Curlin than I was Mucho Macho Man
Race 9 - 6, 1, 2, 4, 8 ← These fillies are trying to pick up points so that they can run the Oaks on Derby weekend and I think the 6 is the best of the horses in the field. I understand that some folks will be on the 2 but I think that price is too short and I rather take the 1 coming off a layoff.
Race 10 - 5, 3, 11, 8, 1, 7 ← This is a really big field for this G3. I know he came 2nd last race and did not run well in a big G3 in December and both were at this distance, but I look back at this race in Oct and April last year and think he could take this home. I look at the 3 and think that if the connections can get him to perform he will be right there in the mix. I would be higher on the 11 if he was not so far our from the rail, but he looked really good last time out. The 8 is coming off an allowance win but was lackluster in his 2 races before that including a G1. I think his odds are too short, but I expect he could hit the board.
Race 11 - Rebel Stakes - 11, 2, 7, 1, 8 ← I know many folks will take the safe way out and give you the 7 and Timberlake is a very quality horse from a quality barn and is likely the best horse in the field, but I think this race is going to be more competitive and open. I am going with 11 as I liked how he ran in the Smarty Jones and was a decent 2nd last time out in a G3 here at Oaklawn. The 2 is a really interesting horse as that horse could grab the rail and get himself on the board and be a big factor late. The 1 is a horse I doubt many people will have, especially after a bad G3 where he came in behind the 11, but he looked really good in his shorter races, including a win here at Oaklawn.
Race 12 - 7, 3, 2, 8 ← 7 is the best horse in this field and I do not think it is particularly close
My list of race tickets:
Below are my tickets for today’s races and these are based on my analysis and my bankroll. PLEASE make sure you are gambling within your bankroll and your limits!!
For today, I am giving myself a $300 bankroll for all the races today. Now for me, that is equivalent to 3u of sports betting risk.
This does NOT mean you have to bet that much too. If you are someone with a more limited bankroll, PLEASE throttle down the amount wagered to a level that is more comfortable for you (e.g., cut every bet in half).
As always, this will be updated after scratches are announced and I will send out a note to everyone to check back!
The first post is at 1:00 pm ET.
11:35 AM ET - WE ARE OFFICIALLY UPDATED FOR SCRATCHES. LET’S HAVE A DAY!
My betting card ($271):
Race 1 - Pass
Race 2 - Multiple ($28)
$10 on 5 to win
$3 Exacta Box 1, 2, 5 ($18)
Race 3 - $5 Exacta 3 / 5, 7 ($10)
Race 4 - Multiple ($22)
$10 on 8 to win
$2 Exacta Box 1, 8, 11 ($12)
Race 5 - $3 Exacta Box 3, 8, 10 ($18)
Race 6 - Multiple ($43)
$3 on 7 to win
$10 on 7 to show
$0.5 Trifecta Box 5, 7, 8, 9 ($12)
$0.5 Pick 4 - 5, 7, 8 / 3, 4, 10 / 7, 8 / 1, 6 ($18)
Race 7 - Pass
Race 8 - Multiple ($28)
$10 Exacta 8 / 7
$3 Pick 3 - 7, 8 / 6 / 3, 5, 11 ($18)
Race 9 - Multiple ($48)
$1 Trifecta 1, 6 / 1, 2, 4, 6 / 1, 2, 4, 6, 8 ($18)
$0.5 Pick 4 - 1, 2, 6 / 3, 5, 8, 11 / 1, 2, 7, 8, 11 / 7 ($30)
Race 10 - Multiple ($34)
$10 on 5 to win
$2 Exacta Box 3, 5, 11 ($12)
$0.5 Trifecta Box 3, 5, 8, 11 ($12)
Race 11 - Rebel Stakes - Multiple ($40)
$10 on 11 to win
$2 Exacta Box 2, 7, 11 ($12)
$1 Trifecta 2, 11 / 1, 2, 7, 11 / 1, 2, 7, 8, 11 ($18)
Race 12 - Pass
List of Pick 5 and Pick 4 tickets:
These are HIGH risk / high-reward bets. You should view these are 4 and 5-race parlays so if you are going to do these make sure you fully understand the risk you are taking on here.
For those who are interested in this action, I will always give you a proposed ticket for every sequence offered but will delineate what I am betting/tracking by putting those in italics ($264 / $48) and note that the ones in italics also appear above:
Race 1 - $0.5 Pick 5 - 4, 5, 6, 7 / 1, 2, 5 / 3 / 1, 2, 8, 11 / 3, 8, 10 ($72)
Race 2 - $0.5 Pick 4 - 1, 2, 5 / 3, 7 / 1, 8, 11 / 3, 8, 10 ($27)
Race 5 - $0.5 Pick 5 - 3, 6, 8, 10 / 5, 7, 8 / 3, 4, 10 / 7, 8 / 1, 6 ($72)
Race 6 - $0.5 Pick 4 - 5, 7, 8 / 3, 4, 10 / 7, 8 / 1, 6 ($18)
Race 8 - $0.5 Pick 5 - 7, 8 / 1, 2, 6 / 3, 5, 11 / 1, 2, 7, 8, 11 / 7 ($45)
Race 9 - $0.5 Pick 4 - 1, 2, 6 / 3, 5, 8, 11 / 1, 2, 7, 8, 11 / 7 ($30)