I decided to split out Monday night football this week, for a few reasons, but one of them is that it allows me to use this game to attack some look-ahead lines1!
I am of course thrilled that the first two 3u plays of this year cashed and it is great that they happened to be the same week, but I have gotten a few questions / comments expecting that this will be everyweek and unfortunately 3u plays2 do not happen often as I stick loyally to my standards so hopefully we have more but I can’t tell you for sure until I run my numbers.
Anyway, we are looking at what seems to be a profitable week so let’s close it out!
My NBA Futures Picks will be out later today so please make sure you are signed up to get my picks sent to you via email as soon as they are published
Monday Night Football
Game 16: Raiders @ Cheifs (Monday 8:15 pm) -
Weather Report -
Stat that might matter - Mahomes is 7-1 outright and 6-2 ATS against Las Vegas.
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Cheifs -7 (-115)
Favorite prop - Josh Jacobs TD or over rushing yards
My 2 cents - How about the Raiders last week? I have been betting Jacobs rushing yards over and for weeks I’ve been saying that I expected them to run the ball and stick with it and we finally saw what that looks like. Mahomes looked great on Sunday night against what we all think is a really good TB defense, but I still think the Cheifs offense goes as Kelce goes. To that point, per Matthew Freedman, Kelce has had a bunch of monster games versus the Raiders averaging 8.75 targets, 6.25 receptions for 87.3 yards, and 0.5 TDs since 2016
Verdict -
I am going with the model KC - 7
0.25u on Isiah Pacheco +225 ATD
0.5u 6pt Teaser +150 on KC-1 / TB -1.5 / Dallas +11.5
0.5u parlay +239 on KC -340 / TB -360 / Jacksonville +105
If these lose tomorrow they will be graded this week, if they survive tomorrow I will grade them next week.
One of the things I hate most about Gambling Twitter are all those people who bet “max play of days” all the time. That does not work in the long run, I am sorry.