NBA Finals Game 2 / PGA Hedge
NBA Finals Game 2
Post Season Record - 35-20 for +13.9u
Post Season Record (incl post season futures) - 37-26 for +18.7u
Strategy - I am playing all the plays.
Other Notes - As you can see below that my model doesn’t think this game is worth a bet, BUTTTTTTT I will tell you this is as close to a bettable line as it can be without being one. If this line moves to 4.5 then it will be bettable. Take that information and pair it with the fact that everyone and their mothers are betting on the Warriors and I will personally be betting on the Celtics +4 and as well as sprinkle a little on the money line. As always I want to be transparent with my action.
Play Tables:
PGA Tour
Alright party people, we have Billy Horschel 65-1. I get asked all the time if I really make the bets I tell you all to make, by now you should know that I do, but in case you think I do not…..Here is my ticket
Now, let’s talk hedging!! As I always say, this is absolutely a personal choice and should be based on your personal risk management. Let me lay out some options and then tell you what I am going to do.
First, in golf there are rarely opportunities for a perfect hedge, but today is our day!!!! Given that Billy is so far out front our good friends BetOnline have posted the following wager:
Some options:
Small hedge
Bet $100 +173 - Billy wins 15+u profit, Field ~1.5u profit
Mid hedge
Bet $275 +173 - Billy wins 13.5u profit, Field ~4.5u profit
Large hedge
Bet $425 +173 - Billy wins 12u profit, Field ~7.1u profit
Perfect hedge
Bet $604.39 +173 - you have a profit of 1020.6 no matter what happens
I am personally going with the small hedge for myself and for my model’s performance and here is why:
Billy has been playing really well and a 5 shot lead a sizable one
Given the current standing of my other bets, I feel pretty good that I am going to have a profitable tournament even if Billy turns into Mito or HV3 on us……okay, maybe not if he does what HV3 did last week
The small hedge make sure I have some profit from this wager and as I always preach with bankroll management the 13.5u I am risking here is great, but it is not anything life changing
Honestly this is violating a lot of my view on successful gambling1 but I am due to fucking win one of these and today is my day!!!!
Good luck with all your wagers
Be on the look out for this post later this summer. I have been working on it for about 2 months.