Okay, look, I know I have spent a lot of the last couple of years giving out NBA picks in this space and so I know many of you find it very surprising that I do NOT like the NBA. To be clear, I dislike the NBA regular season. The NBA playoffs are usually pretty good, especially once you get past the first round.
Today’s newsletter will have 3 things:
An update on where we stand with the futures we bet before the season
Additional futures I am adding based on my model’s view of the season (last year these paid off HUGE)
Plans for the playoffs and my picks for this weekend’s games
Let’s get to it!
Futures Check-in
Let’s see what has been graded already:
Totals
1u on 76ers over 50.5 -120 - Win
1u on Raptors over 45.5 -150 - Loss
1u on Celtics under 53.5 -115 - Loss
0.5u on Nuggets over 50.5 -130 - Win
0.5u on Kings over 34 -130 - Win
0.5u on Warriors under 52 -115 - Win
0.5u on Grizzlies under 49.5 -105 - Loss
0.5u on Chicago Bulls not making the playoffs +125 - Win
Other Futures
0.5u on 76ers to win Division +275 - Loss
0.25u on Mavericks to win title +2500 - Loss
0.25u on Mavericks to win WC +1200 - Loss
0.25u on Steph over 26.3 points per game -115 - Win
In total, we have gone 6-6 for -0.62u
Let’s see what is still alive (and current odds1) :
NBA Title
1u on Bucks +800 (Now +275)
0.5u on 76ers +1600 (Now +1000)
0.25u on Nuggets +1800 (Now +1000)
0.25u on Nuggets +1200 added 1/4 - (Now +1000)
Eastern Conference Championship
0.5u on Bucks +350 (Now +130)
0.25u on 76ers +700 (Now +475)
Western Conference Championship
0.25u on Nuggets +850 (Now +350)
Other Futures that are still alive but the odds are no longer up - obviously, most of these are screwed:
0.5u on Giannis MVP +650
0.5u on KD MVP +750 - added 1/4
0.5u on Anthony Edwards Most Improved Player +500
0.25u on Tyrese Maxey Most Improved Player +1200
0.25u on Scottie Barnes Most Improved Player +2800
0.25u on Tyronn Lue Coach of the Year +900
Futures I am adding today
Obviously when evaluating futures we have to take into account what we already have and I am quite happy with where we are positioned, that said, there are two teams the my model thinks are quite good, Boston and Cleveland. Boston’s odds are quite short, so I’m going to pass on them, but Cleveland on the other hand……
Championship
0.25u on Cleveland Cavaliers +4000
Conference
0.25u on Cleveland Cavaliers +1400
Finals Matchup
0.25u on Bostons vs Denver +1100
Series
1.4u on Memphis Grizzlies over LA Lakers -140
Gamblers Paradise Discord
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Playoff Picks
My plan, as of now, is to have model picks for every game of the playoffs. Now once the number of games starts dwindling, I will not be posting when there are no plays, but the nice thing with the playoffs is that I can post multiple days worth of picks at once, as you can see below.
Playoff Performance2: 0-0 +0.0u
For Today and Tomorrow - 1 play for 1u of risk
Strategy - While I have been keeping the stats in the model up to date, I have not been fully running and betting my model so I am going to likely wait until the 1st round is done to start betting it unless it shows a 2u or 3u play as I want to see how it is performing.
Other Notes - None
Plays Table -
As of 4/15 on BetOnline
This will be updated everytime I post