NFL 2021-2022 Season Performance
Thank you
First I just want to say thank you!!! I know I can be verbose but hopefully you have had some fun and made some money with me this NFL season as we turned just short of 35u of profit and that puts us over 50u of profit over the last two seasons.
What’s next
Now that the NFL Season and Post-Season are over I like to take a couple week break from the NFL and then three things happen for me:
I clear my performance chart and start back at zero;
I start my tear down / rebuild of my model; and
I start to dive into draft
I will cover my model tear down / rebuild in an article over the summer so that you all can understand a bit more what that is, how it works, what I do, and what the results of that work are, but I want to touch on the draft for a minute.
I LOVE the NFL draft because it of course gives us an opportunity to wager, but it really lays the foundation for these teams and my player level predictions that drive my early season betting and fantasy football work for each season.
This offseason I plan on providing an NFL Draft preview with wagering information and some of my views on the players. I am NOT an NFL scout nor do I break down 600+ players like the great Dane Brugler1, but I do my best to figure out what is going on and I will use that note lay out some of my fav guys. As you have seen in my columns I make mention of players I liked / didn’t like in the past and I hope to bring some of that content to you.
We have made some good money so after you read this post, take a bit of time to read Pam Maldonando’s great article Betting 101: Football is over. Now what?. It gives some great advice as to what to do with your hard earned winnings and bankroll management.
Now without further ado, let’s get to the season recaps!
Season Recap - Summary
If you started the year with 10k and were doing $100 per unit then you ended the year with close to 13,500 for a return of close to 35%. That is something I am really happy with and proud of and I hope you were able to get on board.
As you can see from the picture below, we did not have a straight line to our season ending profit total, but we got there in the end and it is the reason why you can’t over react to a single week, you have to be disciplined with your bankroll and betting, and you have to stick with the system that works!
Season Recap - Detailed
Like I mentioned above, we had a really great year to put us up over 50u of profit for the two years I have been doing this. Now, you might say we 15u wasn’t that great the first year but remember, I have vastly expanded the amount of content I provided this year and I hope to maintain or even expand that further next year!
The plays coming directly from my TitanicModel had a decent season and produced ~9u of profit, but the real star of the show this season was the addition of the “Parlays / Teasers / Others” section of the weekly column which resulted in 25u of profit for us.
The really interesting thing was that last year our profit was primarily driven by 3u and 2u plays, but this year we had tremendous success with 0.25, 0.5, and 1u plays and slight down years for the more confident picks.
As you will see, I have updated my reporting output to better integrate my model picks and the other action I have been putting out. I hope you enjoy it and I will be look to continue to look to refine / improve it over the coming months so that it works well for next season. I will also be doing a deep audit of the numbers so you might see me republish this article later with any adjustments that are needed (these will be noted as always).
I also want to take this time to show you week by week, exactly how we did:
This is reporting I built during the season to help me track progress and I will roll it out (a cleaned up version) as part of the weekly process going forward.
If you are unfamiliar with Dane, I HIGHLY recommend checking him out over at the Athletic. His draft guide “the Beast” is by far the best guide there is and I keep them year after year so that I can always look back and it is amazing how good he truly is.