NFL Draft 2022 - Part 2
What you will see below is two things.
What I am adding tonight - my view of what I think and what I have been personally hearing
What I ran the other day - I am doing this so that you have everything in one place.
Draft Thoughts - Part 2
For this I am going to go through what I know / think by pick for the top 10 and then some other nuggets:
Pick 1 - I expect the Jags to take Walker. I think all the smoke is because there is fire. He is an athletic freak who measures to what you want but his production is nonexistent. I think he will bust and I hope I am wrong.
Pick 2 - I think there outright dismissal of picking the Oregon DE is ludicrous and they are scared off from taking the CB from Cinci after their flop with Okudah so I think they are taking Hutchinson
Pick 3 - I honestly do not know what they will do. They could use basically everything
Pick 4 and 10 - The more I speak to people in and around Florham Park I am getting the sense they are going to stick and pick at 4 and either take an OL or Cinci corner. On the OL front I think it is could be Neal, but I think they could like the versatility of Ike as he can start at G and move to OT is Becton is really done in Green. I am not sure I see Thibodeaux here but it is possible. I think they are open to staying at 10 if a top guy falls to them but I expect them to move back from there and try to add a pick for next year.
Pick 5 and 7 - There is A LOT of noise that this is going to be Charles Cross in the media. I think it is Neal. I think the Giants try to get out of 7 the question becomes how far are they willing to go back and how badly do they want a pick next year. I have been told there are a number of OL they like later in the 1st round so do not be surprised if they move down and take a G or C
Pick 6 - If the Panthers stay, they are going to take whichever OL is there as their line is hot garbage. That said, I fully expect them to move down as this is there only top 100 pick and they are really talent poor.
Pick 8 - I think they are going WR. There is too much smoke for me here but this is just a guess
Pick 9 - I am not sure what Atlanta will do.
Pick 16 and 19 - Every seems to think New Orleans is going to try package these picks and move up and I would not be surprised about that, but I actually think they stick in here and pick OL and CB.
Picks 15 and 18 - I have heard wild stuff with these picks. I would prepare yourself for the possibility that one of these is a surprise that most teams have in the 2nd round
Pick 24 - The cowboys usually draft from their 30 visit list but their list was rather odd. I think they are going with Kenyon Green or Zion Johnson if they are there
Pick 29 and 30 - Get ready for KC to move up. I am hearing they want a WR and want one badly.
NFL Draft Bets
As always, these are based off of the lines currently posted on either BetOnline or Bovada at the time of publishing.
I am getting these out tonight as I know some folks who live in the states have regulations where you can’t wager within 24 hours of the draft.
New wagers add on 4/26
2u on Evan Neal u6 +100
This line is on BetOnline. I know Bovada is u5.5 +140 or Top 5 +150 and those are perfectly fine, but I like the protection of if he slips to 6 you can get the push should Panthers take him
1.12u on Lewis Cine Top 32 -115
0.725u on Zion Johnson u24.5 -145
0.625 on Kenyon Greene u27.5-125
0.5u on Derek Stingley Jr o8.5 +135
0.25u on Evan Neal as the 5th pick +500
These are the ones that are pending from 4/22:
1.175u on Under 3.5 QB’s taken in the 1st round -235
I do not believe all these mocks that say all these QBs are going early. I figure Willis athleticism will get someone to buy in and then I always think some team(s) from the top of the 2nd will hop up into the back end of the 1st to grab a guy and get that 5th year option.
1u on Garrett Wilson under 10.5 -200
0.875u on Kenny Pickett over 10.5 -175
0.7u on Jordan Davis over 15.5 -140
0.65u on Desmond Ridder under 29.5 -130
0.65u on Kenyon Green under 27.5 -130
0.65u on John Metchie III over 59.5 -1301
0.55u on Charles Cross over 7.5 -110
0.55u on Garrett Wilson 1st WR taken -110
0.5u on George Karloftis under wilson20.5 +115
0.3u on Tyler Smith under 32.5 -120
0.25u on Evan Neal 1st OL taken +155
As we get closer to the draft I may have a few more picks and those will be sent out in another post AND added here so you have a one stop place for all the action.
Draft Thoughts (from 4/22)
Now, let me be clear, I am not Dane Brugler (Note: go get the Beast. It is worth the price of the subscription by itself) as I just watch a ton of college football and use YouTube to help me scout QBs.
Firstly, this year the Draft is lacking elite talent and there is no where that is more apparent than QB. This is also not surprising. Last year every QB needy team knew that they had to get their guy because this year was not good and next year is super top heavy so if I was a QB needy team I would be looking at how can I improve my OL and get my QB EARLY next year (read: be okay with tanking Seattle, you too Atlanta).
Here are my rankings2 of how I think the top guys will be as NFL players, not the order they go:
Desmond Ridder - I love Ridder. The dude wins and wins a ton. I love his athleticism and his experience. Unlike some of the other QB’s in this class who do not lift teammates performance I think he helped others on that Cinci team be better than their talent indicates and his tenacity can be felt through the screen. Bonus for me - he meets every one of the Bill Parcells’s QB criteria3. If I were one of the teams at the top of the 2nd and Ridder was sitting there at say 28, I would ABSOLUTELY go grab him. Do I really think he is a 1st round QB? Not really, but that 5th year option, especially for a QB, is HUGE and even more so for someone I expect to continue to develop.
Sam Howell - I went into this season with him as my #1 QB and he looked dreadful. I was ready to kill him but when I went back and watched UNC I struck by just how bad his team was and I remembered a lot of his teammates left after last season (draft, graduation, etc.). I think he has the tools to be a decent starter in the NFL and is probably worth a mid-2nd round pick but I do not think he is going to be elevating his teammates so you are going to have to have a good team around him for him to be successful.
Matt Corral - I am going to be honest, I reallllly like Corral, but his injuries terrify me. I would not be shocked at all if someone hops up mid to late in the 1st to grab him as he has bags of athleticism and a really nice arm and if he can stay healthy could be a pretty good get, but his playing style leads to him getting hit a lot and he is only 6’1”. His Ole Miss scheme is a bit of a negative for me as well as is the fact he barely meets any of Parcell’s criteria.
Kenny Pickett - His accuracy is probably the best of this bunch and I think he is deceptively athletic (aka athletic white guy), but I think playing at Pitt has caused him to see ghosts and leave the pocket too quickly even through it is a pro-style offense. I love that he is a 4yr starter and got better as the years went on, but I wonder if his Senior season (which was great) may be more of a factor of a really down ACC year. The two gloves this is funky, but the dude has been playing in Pittsburgh which is not known for it’s great weather.
Malik Willis - He can throw the ball a mile and that is wonderful, but has anyone watched his actual games. I have heard the comparisons to Lamar Jackson and that is lazy to me. Lamar came from pro style offense that asked him to do multi level reads, Willis is a run first player in Liberty’s spread scheme. I do not think he will be able to process NFL Defenses (look at his struggles against Syracuse) quickly enough, he is only 6’, I do not think he is accurate enough and I would not want my team drafting him as high as he is going to go.
Limits are low and this is one I would do more on if I could
Yes, you can throw this in my face later when I am wrong about Malik Willis
Be a three-year starter
Be a senior in college
Graduate from college
Start 30 games
Win 23 games
Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio
Complete at least 60% of passes thrown