NFL Playoff Preview
Legendary NFL Head Coach Bill Parcels used to refer to the NFL Playoffs as “the tournament” and would say that he just wanted to get to the tournament and then anything could happen. Well in that in mind I wanted to do my own version of the ESPN “why each team will / won’t win the super bowl” so here we go:
NFC Teams (by seed):
Philadelphia Eagles - This team has been the class of the NFL this whole season (2nd best overall by DVOA) and they are a very talented team sporting a varied offense and an attack D that was close to setting the record the most sacks in the season, BUT they have now had injuries at the worst part of the season (including to their QB) and while their defensive scheme has gotten sacks, it has now struggled in the last 2 years when facing top QBs (they only averaged about 6 incompletions per game).
San Fransisco 49ers - There might not be a coaching staff in football, or at least in the NFC, that can devise a better game plan that this one. Between Kyle Shannahan and DeMeco Ryans they have both sides of the ball covered by two of the brightest minds at their respective crafts in all of the NFL (DVOA ranks them as the best defense and 7th best offense). The big question is obviously the QB position as Brock Purdy was a 7th round pick for a reason and is a rookie and Jimmy G doesn’t engender a TON of confidence, not to mention Shanahan has been on the wrong side of a number of major collapses.
Minnesota Vikings - This team has a talented offense given that it has Justin Jefferson, Adam Theilen, TJ Hockenson and Dalvin Cook (we have to see how hurt he is, but Mattison isn’t a huge drop-off). That means this team is never really out of a game and plays in one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. Though, if you trust Kirk Cousins in a big spot you are asking for problems and this team’s advanced stats have never been good and seem to be getting worse (DVOA has them as the 28th best team in the NFL).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - They will win because have a QB with (checks notes) 7 SUPER BOWL RINGS, but he is working with a rather poorly coached team that seems to struggle every week until late in the 4th quarter when they somehow come back to scratch out wins. The question is how much longer can they look like crap for 3.5 quarters of a game and then win? I do not think much.
Dallas Cowboys - If you are having a discussion with someone and you want to know if their NFL opinions, especially about QBs, are worth taking seriously, ask them “What do you think about Dak?”. If their answer is anything other than “Dak Prescott is top-level quarterback, and while he is notch below Mahomes, Allen and the truly elites, the Cowboys are FAR better with him under center” then they should be dismissed. That said, we have 25+ years of watching Dallas blow it in the biggest of spots and they have a coach who (somewhat unfairly) is viewed as not up to it so until they win the big game it is hard to assume they will win the big game and they come in playing VERY poorly.
New York Giants - Look, there is not much more you can say about the job Brian Daboll and Wink Martindale have done. They have created a winning team, culture, and mentality very quickly with a team that is devoid of much talent. When they go against these better teams, I think that talent deficit will be rather problematic, especially as run D can’t stop anyone (32nd by DVOA) so while they might make it passed the Vikings, I do not think they are making it to the Championship game.
Seattle Seahawks - Another coach in Pete Carroll who did a phenomenal job this year, but let’s be honest - this team stinks and will be outmatched against pretty much any of the teams above.
AFC Teams (by seed):
Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs have by far the best offense in the league, and it is helmed by the amazing Patrick Mahomes at QB. We have seen this team play down to some of its competition so it will be exciting to see them show their best against the best. This team still has a slightly below average defense, so they are susceptible to good offenses and their special teams has been pretty bad all year.
Buffalo Bills - If you are a believer in advanced stats this is the team for you as they are viewed as the best team in the NFL by Football Outsiders. They have a QB that can truly look like superman, and this might be the most complete team in the NFL as Leslie Frazier has their D playing really well even with all the injuries. It is hard to see a ton of weaknesses here, but they very well could be playing on the road and the need to win shootout games and that is always difficult. It is also really hard to know whether the team will use Hamlin’s cardiac event to rally around or find it emotionally taxing.
Cincinnati Bengals - Before the season I wrote the following about Joe Burrow “if he does what he did last year again then I will move him up to Tier 2, but I just want to see it again……I am prepared to be wrong, but I think they take a small step back this year before pushing on next year.”…..Well I was wrong. He is as good if not better than he was last year, but the thing that is not as good is his defense which quietly really led the team to the Superbowl last year.
Jacksonville Jaguars - I guess it turns out having an actual NFL level head coach is a good thing. Who could have guessed? Well, they in fact have a Super Bowl winning head coach who has his young QB improving week-to-week. Unfortunately for Doug Pederson is that his defense is really bad and gives up way too many big plays and against this set of teams, it will not be able to hold up.
Los Angeles Chargers - I have been a fan of Justin Herbert going back to his Oregon days and he continues to be an amazing talent who is as dangerous as anyone when he has the full complement of Keenan Allen, Austin Eckler, and Mike Williams (who got hurt this weekend) at his disposal, but does anyone know how he will perform under the brightest of lights? Also, in almost any of these matchups, the Chargers will have by far the second-best Head Coach on the sidelines
Baltimore Ravens - Lamar Jackson remains a question mark as he has not practiced or played in quite a while, but when he is healthy, he is one of the most unique talents in the NFL. They also have a defense that has gotten healthier and better as the season has gone along. That all said, if Lamar doesn’t play this team can barely move the ball and even when he does play, I have serious doubts whether Greg Roman can get the best out of him.
Miami Dolphins - This team backdoored their way into the playoffs, but they still have one of the most dynamic and terrifying receiving cores I have ever seen. There are not many teams that will be able to cover those guys, but the reason they will lose is that they honestly can’t get those guys the ball. I am not sure I can honestly see them putting Tua on the field and we have seen Teddy two gloves and now Skylar Thompson (whose name sounds more like a super model than it does a starting NFL QB) and neither of them are NFL QBs at this point.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Okay, I know they didn’t make the playoffs, but I love Mike Tomlin and I just want to give him his flowers. How in the hell did he end up above .500 do that with that team?? He is by far the best coach in the NFL and it is not particularly close.
NFL Regular Season Recap
As always, I want to make sure we have transparency on where we are with performance, and while the model didn’t pick any games this week, it did settle a bunch of futures!
Here is what settled this week:
Aaron Rodgers under 4100.5 passing yards - Win
Russell Wilson under 4050.5 passing yards - Win
Zeke Elliot over 900.5 rushing yards - Loss
Dalton Schultz over 5.5 receiving TDs - Loss
Trevon Diggs over 4.5 INTs - Loss
Panthers u6.5 wins - Loss
Eagles to win NFC East - Win
Eagles to be NFC #1 Seed - Win
My book is still showing these as pending, but per my review of the rules these will all be cancelled as they require all the teams involved to play 17 games, but I am leaving them as pending until they are settled:
Falcons least wins
Bills most wins
Ravens to win AFC North
I’ll see you all back here on Friday for my Wild Card weekend newsletter.