Let me start with a mea culpa!
I got asked about not posting the latest performance report with the picks last week and I realized that there was something that I meant to add to the bottom of the post for folks - my apologies!
Every year, during the playoffs, I complete a full audit of my tracking and during that period, I hold off on publishing updated tracking so that the process can play out and any updates that are needed (last year there were 2 updates for a total change of +0.02u). I usually get two main questions about it:
What does this audit entail? In short, I sit down and go through every one of my newsletters and reconcile it to my reporting engine and tick and tie every single pick, their odds, results, etc. I also have someone else do sample-based testing, using a statistically significant sample size, to verify the results are correct as well
Why do it now and not in the offseason? The main reason is that after the season is over I want to be able to publish a final performance report. I want that to be 100% correct and come out timely (instead of having to hold that for 4-6 weeks after the season to get it done).
Hope that helps explain things!
-T
Conference Championship Weekend
AFC Title Game - Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens:
Time, date, and broadcast - Sunday, Jan 28, 3:00 PM, CBS
Weather Report - low to mid 40’s; 10mph wind; rain
Line movement
Open: Ravens -3 (-120); O/U 45 (-110)
1/24: Ravens -3.5 (-115); O/U 44.5 (-110)
Now: Ravens -4 (-110); O/U 44.5 (-110)
Stats that might matter
As Bleacher Report points out, Patrick Mahomes has gone to the AFC title game every season as a starter
This will be Patrick Mahomes’ 2nd true road playoff game of his career, last week was the first.
This is the first time the Baltimore Ravens have hosted the AFC title game
If he does not throw an interception, Patrick Mahomes would tie the NFL record for his 6th consecutive playoff game without one.
Per Action Network, Patrick Mahomes has been an underdog of 3+ 5 times in his career, he is 5-0 ATS in those games.
After last week’s win, as Evan Abrams pointed out, Mahomes is 8-3 straight up and 9-1-1 ATS in his career as an underdog. Further, Kansas City is 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog with 15 outright wins.
Per Ben Fawkes, this will be just the 2nd time in Mahomes’ career that he has been an underdog in consecutive weeks. The last time was in 2018….he won both of those games outright.
Per John Ewing, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce have combined for the most postseason touchdowns (16) by a QB-WR duo in NFL history
Per BR Betting, no team has beaten Josh Allen in the playoffs and then won their next playoff game, but it is not just the playoffs. Per Evan Abrams, teams after facing the Bills are 24-41-1 ATS (37%) last four years (5-11-1 ATS in 2023)
Per Joe Osborne, The Chiefs have gone Under the second-half total in 17 of 19 games this season and Baltimore is a league-best 14-4 ATS in the first half
Per Sharp Football Analysis, Under referee Shawn Smith, home teams are only 17-29-3 against the spread (37.0%) in the last three years
My breakdown of the game
When the Ravens have the ball - Let’s start with the likely MVP of the NFL Lamar Jackson. He is playing elite football right now and I do not expect that to change, especially with Mark Andrews coming back and Likely / Flowers continuing to be a huge threat. While Lamar and the Ravens have been throwing the ball well, their offense continues to be predicated on the run and they are facing a Chiefs’ defense that is not good against the run as they are 28th EPA/play against a running game.
When the Chiefs have the ball - I think the most impressive thing last week in the Chiefs / Bills game was how the Chiefs’ offensive line just absolutely manhandled the Bills upfront. Andy Reid, who is famous for not running the ball across his career, realized it early and just smashed the Bills in the mouth over and over again and they had no response. I think a huge key here will be the success of their OL and their willingness to give Pacheco the ball to move the ball. Now, that said, I think Joe Thuney's injury is a huge problem, and while the Chiefs might be confident it Nick Allegretti, I disagree. I also think we can’t discount the comeback of the Ravens’ best defensive player Marlon Humphrey.
Where I ended up - I am very open in the Gamblers Paradise Discord that I think trends/angles tend to be very overstated, but there is one listed above that I think we really need to pay attention to, and that is how teams fair the week after playing the Bills. The Bills had the ball for over 40 minutes in that game, which means the Chiefs D played twice as much football as the Bills’ D. Tag on to that the fact that game was the final game of the weekend and the Ravens got an extra day of rest here and that adds up to me really liking the Ravens. I think their offense will continue to move the ball on the Chiefs. I also think we actually see a bit of a lower-scoring game here so my lean is to the under as I expect these teams to move the ball on the ground and grind down the clock.
Props I like
Patrick Mahomes over 0.5 INTs (-122)
Patrick Mahomes over 26.5 rushing yards (-115)
Patrick Mahomes ATD (+450)
Gus Edwards over 44.5 rushing yards (-125)
Gus Edwards ATD +125
Lamar Jackson over 66.5 rushing yards (-115)
Odafe Oweh over 0.25 sacks (+280)
NFC Title Game - Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers:
Time, date, and broadcast - Sunday, Jan 28, 6:30 PM, Fox
Weather Report - unseasonably warm mid 70’s; 5 mph wind
Line movement
Open: 49ers -6.5 (-115); O/U 51.5 (-110)
1/24: 49ers -7 (-110); O/U 51.5 (-110)
Now: 49ers -7 (-120); O/U 51.5 (-110)
Stats that might matter
Per Joe Osborne, the Lions have gone 17-4 ATS as an underdog of 4 or more points under Dan Campbell and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games
Per Todd Fuhrman, this will be the Lions’ 2nd game outside since October 22nd
Teams that win their first 2 games at home and then go on the road for the championship game are 0-3 and lose by an average of 19 points
Per Ben Fawkes, the San Francisco 49ers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games, tied for their second-longest home ATS losing streak in the Super Bowl era.
More from Ben, this line would be the biggest underdog the Lions have been all season.
Per John Ewing, under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home in the playoffs
Per Joe Osborne, The Chiefs have gone Under the second-half total in 17 of 19 games this season and Baltimore is a league-best 14-4 ATS in the first half
My breakdown of the game:
When the 49ers have the ball - This game has some really interesting matchups and I am going to start with the 49ers running game vs the very stout Lions rush defense. The 49ers running game is both creative and explosive. They will stick with it when it is not working and then use it to set up their play-action game and eventually bust loose. The normally good Lions run defense struggled last week as the Lions ran at almost 6 yards per clip, but only ran it 15 times as everyone knows the best way to attack the Lions’ D is to throw it. When talking about whether the 49ers will be able to throw it we have to keep an eye on whether Deebo is going to play as the 49ers are a vastly different team with and without Deebo in the lineup. As John Ewing points out, this season the 49ers are 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS when Deebo starts and finishes the game, but are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS when he doesn’t. Another interesting point is that over their last 5 games, the Lions have given up at least 140 yards to the premier slot receiver of the opposing team.
When the Lions have the ball - Here is another really fun matchup because when you think about the Lions and where they are best at attacking it is right up the middle. In fact, Jared Goff targets the middle of the field more than any other QB in the NFL and they are incredibly efficient when doing it. That is where they beat the Bucs and find their success, but here is the conundrum - the 49ers are one of the best teams in the NFL when being attacked in the middle of the field when measured both by advanced analytics and counting stats. That tells you that for the Lions to be successful they are going to need to run the ball (not easy) and attack the 49ers outside the numbers.
Where I ended up - I think the rain really messed things up for the 49ers last week so I am not taking too much away from their offense. I think the 49ers are strongest on D where the Lions want to attack and then they will get pressure on Goff. Goff has the largest difference in QBR this year between a clean pocket and when pressured. This is the 49ers rolling to me. I also know with a banged-up or without Deebo the view is they won’t throw the ball, but I think Shanahan will know that is where you have to attack the Lions and will air the ball out. I also expect that the Lions will be a dreaded public dog. I am not sure really how I feel about the total so going to pass there.
Props I like
Brock Purdy over 279.5 passing yards (-115)
Brandon Auiyuk over 80.5 receiving yards (-125)
CMC over 36.5 receiving yards (-110)
Josh Reynolds under 34.5 receiving yards (-114)
Sam LaPorta ATD (+160)
Kyle Juszczyk ATD (+800)
My bets:
Spreads / Totals
0.5u KC/BAL u44.5 (-110)
0.5u Ravens -4 (-110)
1u 49ers -7 (-120)
Parlays
2u Bal -205 / SF -360 (-111)
Props (0.25u each)
Patrick Mahomes over 0.5 INTs (-122)
Gus Edwards ATD +125
Brock Purdy over 279.5 passing yards (-115)
Brandon Auiyuk over 80.5 receiving yards (-125)