Divisional Weekend
Game 1 - Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens:
Time, date, and broadcast - Saturday, Jan 20, 4:30 PM, ESPN/ABC
Weather Report - 20-25 degrees; partly cloudy; 10-15 mph winds
Line movement
Open: Ravens -8.5 (-115); O/U 46 (-110)
1/18 7 am: Ravens -9.5 (-110); O/U 43.5 (-110)
Now: Ravens -9.5 (-110); O/U 43.5 (-110)
Stats that might matter
These two teams met in Week 1, Baltimore won at home 25-9. The closing line was Ravens -9.5 and the total was 43.5
Per Todd Fuhrman, Lamar Jackson has the 5th-largest passer rating decrease (-29.7) from the regular season (98.0) to the playoffs (68.3) in NFL history (min. 100 att); Lamar is 0-2 SU/ATS as a home favorite in the divisional round; Stroud enters 6-1 ATS L7 games as a dog
Per Evan Abrams, as a favorite of more than a TD (-7.5 or higher), Lamar Jackson is 1-8 ATS over the last 3 seasons; though his only cover was Week 1
Per SharpFootball Analysis, at home, Lamar Jackson averaged 9.3 yards per pass attempt, completed 69.4% of his passes, and threw 14 touchdowns to four interceptions.
Per Joe Osborne, the Texans have gone Under the first-half total in all eight of their road games this season
Per Joe Osborne, the Ravens went 14-3 ATS in the first half this season
My breakdown of the game - This is a really interesting game to try and break down. The Ravens are coming off the bye which should give them a bit of time to rest up but it turns out to not be enough for Mark Andrews to make it back. Everyone saw the Texans absolutely dismantle the supposed vaunted Browns defense, but as I showed in this space last week, their defense was drastically different on the road versus when it was at home. This game screams to me that folks are overrating the Texans and we will find out that the Texans are the dreaded “public dog”. It is almost as if folks have forgotten how good this Ravens D has been all year. One of the big things that could be a huge difference this week is the Raven’s use of play action in this game as Houston has allowed 10.1 Y/A (31st in the league) and a 72.0% completion rate (30th). We could see the Ravens establish their running game early and then use that play action to pull the Texans’ defense apart. I also think that the Texans’ struggle to run the ball on the road and inability to communicate in the cold and on the road will mean they lose. I find the total movement to be quite interesting as we are seeing massive reports of the public hammering the over, yet the number has moved drastically against them, which tells me that the “sharp” money was grabbing the under and pushing it down. The value is likely gone but might be something to keep in mind if we have a quick score or two and you want to grab a live under at a higher number.
Props I like
CJ Stroud over 0.5 INTs (-136)
Devin Singletary under 60.5 rushing yards (-115)
Isaiah Likely over 37.5 receiving yards (-120)
Game 2 - Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers:
Time, date, and broadcast - Saturday, Jan 20, 8:15 pm, Fox
Weather Report - 60 degrees; cloudy; light rain
Line movement
Open: 49ers -9 (-110) O/U 50.5 (-115 / -105)
1/18 7 am: 49ers -9.5 (-110); O/U 50.5 (-110)
Now: 49ers -9.5 (-105); O/U 50.5 (-110)
Stats that might matter
The Packers were the first No. 7 seed to win in the NFL playoffs since the league added a team in the postseason
Per SharpFootball, Over their opening 9 games of the season, Green Bay scored just 1.02 points per drive in the first half of games, which was 31st in the league. Over their past nine games, Green Bay has scored 2.78 points per drive in the opening half of games (third in the NFL)
Per Joe Osborne, 11 of San Francisco’s 12 wins this season were by double-digits
Per Joe Osborne, the 49ers are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games played in January
My breakdown of the game - Speaking of teams that used the bye to get healthy, let’s talk about the 49ers who might have needed that bye to get healthy more than any other team. It is also worth pointing out the 49ers are coming off the bye and the last time Kyle Shannahan had a team with a number 1 seed, he found himself in the Super Bowl. I really like the 49ers in this spot. Yes, I was VERY wrong about the Packers last week when I thought Dallas would be able to their defense easily and it turned out that it was the Packers who would be slicing through my beloved Cowboys’ defense like a hot knife through cold butter, but everything I said last week really does hold this week too. I think San Fran’s offense should be able to take apart Joe Barry’s defense’s softness in the middle. Also, something to think about is that Matt LaFleur was on Kyle Shannahan’s staff for quite a while. From a total perspective, I am actually pretty surprised that this has not moved at all. I really like the under in this game as I think the Packers’ offense might be able to move the ball against the 49er’s defense, but they likely won’t be able to score and if they get behind then the 49ers D will eat.
Props I like
Jordan Love over 0.5 INTs (-173)
Aaron Jones under 67.5 rushing yards (-110)
Brandon Ayuik over 67.5 receiving yards (-115)
Javon Hargrave over 0.5 sacks +150
Game 3 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions:
Time, date, and broadcast - Sunday, Jan 21, 3:00 PM, NBC
Weather Report - This game is in a dome, but that didn’t stop a reporter from asking Todd Bowles about how his team will adapt to the weather.
Line movement
Open: Lions -5.5 (-110); O/U 48.5 (-110)
1/18 7 am: Lions -6.5 (-105); O/U 48.5 (-112/-108)
Now: Lions -6.5 (-105); O/U 49.5 (-115/-105)
Stats that might matter
These two teams met in Week 6, Detroit won on the road 20-6. The closing line was Lions -3 and the total was 43.5
Per Evan Abrams, Baker Mayfield was the most profitable QBs against the spread as an underdog this season, 9-3 ATS, 7-1 ATS in his last 8 as a dog.
Further to that point, per Ben Fawkes, the Bucs, were 5-1 ATS as dogs +4 or greater this year.
Per Joe Osborne, the Bucs are 8-1 ATS on the road this season
My breakdown of the game - I know this might sound silly given the other games, especially the one later on Sunday, but this game might be the most fascinating to me. We have a Lions team that won a playoff for the first time in most of your lives1 and you could see the raw emotion for those players and especially those fans. As someone who lets their mental health and emotional well-being be affected far too often by the outcomes of sporting events played by my favorite teams, I can totally understand that reaction. Now from a handicapping perspective, that worries me coming into this week. That amount of emotion is draining and can lead to a letdown this week. They take on a Bucs team that absolutely took apart a broken Eagles team so they did not have to push too hard and did not have to expend nearly the same amount of energy or emotion. This is going to be a game where I think this spread is going to come into play as I like the Lions to win this game, but as this number has crept up, I think the value is now on the Bucs plus the points.
Props I like
Baker Mayfield over 7.5 rushing yards (-130)
Jared Goff over 0.5 INTs (-124)
Mike Evans ATD (-105)
Game 4 - Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills:
Time, date, and broadcast - Sunday, Jan 21, 6:30 PM, CBS
Weather Report - COLD
Line movement
Open: Bills -3 (+100); O/U 46.5 (-115/-105)
1/18 7 am: Bills -2.5 (-119); O/U 45.5 (-110)
Now: Bills -2.5 (-120); O/U 45.5 (-110)
Stats that might matter
These two teams met in Week 14, Buffalo won in KC 20-17. The line was KC -1.5 and the total was 49
This will be Patrick Mahomes’ true first road playoff game of his career; I say “true” as he played Tampa Bay in a Super Bowl in Tampa, but that is technically a neutral site game
Per Joe Osborne, the Chiefs have gone Under the second-half total in 16 of 18 games this season
Per Joe Osborne, the Chiefs are 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog
My breakdown of the game - If you have any Bills fans in your life you know they are dreading this game. If you do not have any Bills fans in your life, you know they are a group that is both the most optimistic and pessimistic group ever. Deep down they hope and pray and want their team to do well, but they also have had their junk kicked sooooooo many times over the years they have been trained to expect the worst, and the “13-second game” is a perfect example of what they have dealt with over the years. Obviously, we have to talk about the rest advantage that the Chiefs have over Buffalo. Yes, having this game later on a Sunday is really no different for teams coming off a Monday Night Football game, but the full 2 days of rest advantage that the Chiefs have should not be underestimated. I think what will be interesting here is how the Bills’ banged-up defense is able to contend with KC’s passing attack in the 8-15 yard range. Generally speaking, where to attack the Bills is deeper downfield so that to me plays into the Bills’ hands as KC struggles to push the ball downfield as their WR’s have continued to drop balls. From a total perspective, I get that everyone sees the weather and thinks “oh, there is no way they can score in that weather”, but to me, the over here is the play. I think these teams should be able to move the ball on each other and we might find this to be a game of whoever has the ball last will win.
Props I like
Patrick Mahomes over 28.5 rushing yards (-115)
Josh Allen ATD (-121)
Dawson Knox ATD (+400)
My bets:
Spreads / Totals
1u SF 49ers (-105)
1u SF / GB under 50.5 (-110)
1u Tampa Bay Bucs +7 (-125); bought the half point
0.5u Buffalo / KC over 45.5 (-110)
0.25u Bucs TT over 21.5 (-120)
0.5u on KC / Bill 2H total over2
Teasers
1u 7.5 pt teaser Ravens -2 / GB/SF under 58 / TB +14 (+116)
Parlays
2u Ravens -440 / 49ers -450 (-200)
Props (0.25u each)
Devin Singletary under 60.5 rushing yards (-115)
Javon Hargrave over 0.5 sacks +150
Baker Mayfield over 7.5 rushing yards (-130)
Dawson Knox ATD (+400)
Good luck with all your action!
yes, I know many of my readers are quite young
I will be betting this live at halftime