I know many people really loved my long-form Friday newsletters and I apologize that those are now things of that past, but hopefully you still enjoy this new streamlined version of my picks1!
Something to keep in mind early in the season:
My model seems to usually lean towards underdogs the first few weeks which can end up with us having money on some pretty crappy teams
The model seemingly has action on most games this week, so make sure you are personally doing what is right for your risk appetite. Unless noted, I bet everything the model puts out. Even if I do not bet something, which is rare, the model’s picks are tracked as is.
-T
My New Format
As you can see, I have put my picks and analysis into a new format this year. As I found out when I sent my Thursday picks, not everyone understood it so let me break down what it is.
For each game, you will see:
Date - the date for the game
Day - the day of the week of the game
Time (ET) - the time the game will be kicking off
Location - the name of the stadium at which the game takes place
Game # - this is just a number I assign to help with record-keeping
Team Names - You will see the two team names, with the home team on the bottom
Posted - these are the money line odds and spread (quoted from the home team’s perspective) that up when I publish
Model Suggestion - this is the play that my model suggests
Titanic’s Game Notes - these are my brief personal notes on each game (including helpful trends) and, for some, will tell you my personal betting strategy.
The games:
TNF Recap - Well thank a lot Kadarius Toney. Good lord, he could not catch a cold. Ultimately, the model dropped the opening game and we didn’t hit the under but did get the rushing prop so we were -1.3u on the night.
Come join the “Gamblers Paradise” Discord
Gamblers Paradise is a Discord we started to be a haven for gamblers of all levels! Too many discords devolve into trolling, name-calling, rudeness, and Twitter Touts trying to get you to buy their content, but Gamblers Paradise is the exact opposite!
Instead, it is a community of sports and gambling fans who are there watching games together and sharing their thoughts/angles for games.
Other Plays
I am a big believer in recognizing mistakes and making adjustments. It is clear to me that I was doing FAR too much in this section last year, especially early in the campaign. As such, one of the changes going into this year is that I am going to reduce the amount of “other” plays and the risk we are taking we are doing with the target of being less is more.
Totals, Parlays, Teasers, and Props:
0.5u on LA Charges under 26.5 Team Total (-105)
0.25u on Houston / Baltimore over 43.5 (-105)
0.5u on 6pt Teaser (-120) → Cleveland +8 / Green Bay +7.5
0.5u on 6pt Teaser (-120) → Washington -1 / Pittsburgh +8.5
0.25u on 7pt teaser (+131) → Indianapolis +12 / Green Bay +8.5 / Carolina +10.5
0.25u on Pittsburgh / Green Bay money line parlay +418
Player Props
0.25u on Amari Cooper over 56.5 receiving yards (-115)
0.25u on Jalen Hurts over 0.5 INTs (+112)
0.25u on Justin Herbert over 0.5 INTs (+130)
0.25u on Jake Ferguson to score a TD (+350)
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
This cuts down the time and effort it takes me to do my Friday newsletter by 60-70%%