NFL Week 10 Picks
Happy Friday!
Last week was a disaster so let’s get back on track and cash some tickets!!
This is coming on Friday as I believe in democracy and the votes matter:
In case you missed it, I switched back to my v1.0 model and that led to an NBA sweep yesterday for a profit of 3.2u!!!! I am planning on sending out free plays tomorrow, but want folks to vote to help decide what day I send out my free NBA plays1 each week2:
Make sure you are signing up (paid if you want NBA content every day or free for everything else) and you will get my posts emailed directly to you!!
#TitanicModel output:
It is like my model knew it was a bad week last week so it decided that it pulled back as the bets it is calling for are much more limited
3u Plays:
Arizona -10 (-115) - NOTE, this is on BetOnline right now, if you can only get 10.5 or worse, then this becomes a 2u play
1u Plays:
Baltimore -7.5 (-110)- loss
Dallas -9 (-106)
Indianapolis -10 (-110)
New England -1 (-127)3
Tampa Bay -10 (-101)
Las Vegas +2.5 (-103)
0.5u Plays:
Tennessee -2.5 (-120)
Pittsburgh -8.5 (-110)
Green Bay -3 (-120)
Game by Game analysis:
I know this has gotten long in recent weeks so I am trimming this down a bit…..yeah yeah, I know, I am long winded
Falcons @ Cowboys - Cowboys were embarrassed last week as they showed up unprepared and thought they would just waltz to victory. I do not think Dan Quinn and his D will be overlooking this game, but the reason this is a PASS for me, is Matt Ryan. As Mina Kimes pointed out on Twitter earlier this week, in the last 5 games Matt Ryan is 1st in QBR, 2nd in CPOE, and 3rd in 1st Down Rate and frankly I am not sure how the Cowboys stop Pitts. This just seems like too many points and add to that no Randy Gregory and (likely) no Tyron Smith and I would be careful putting Dallas in your survivor pools.
Saints @ Titans - I know my model has this as Titans for a 0.5u, but I like the Saints here. Dennis Allen has their defense playing really well and I think they will make thing really tough on this Titans team. I think this is a matchup of two really well coached team. I am personally ignoring my model and betting on Saints ML @ +130 (1u).
Jags @ Colts - Color me as one of the folks SHOCKED that Jags beat the Bills last week. I think they suffered from the same issue Dallas did of just thinking they could show up and win, (Lee Corso voice) “Not So Fast My Friend”. I am going to bet my model of Colts -10, but for here, I am going to PASS as I have watched a LOT of Wentz over the years and know better than to trust him.
Browns @ Pats - In a week of impressive performances, was Browns ass kicking of Bengals the best one? This line has moved from pick’em to Pats -2.5 (Bovada) and while I think the Browns are the better team, I think Bill B is going to have a game plan that is going to be a problem for the Browns, my model loves NE and has seen them climbing from 17-19 range up to top 10 …..But I think Myles Garrett might ruin this game and neither team seems to have a healthy RB so PASS here.
Bills @ Jets - I think Mike White is coming back to earth and coming back HARD this week and I think last week the Bills were embarrassed and they come back with a fury. Bills -13
Lions @ Steelers - The idea of spending 3 hours watching Big Ben vs Jared Goff makes me want to vomit. PASS, but I am personally betting the under here. Maybe this is when the Lions finally win a game,
Bucs @ Washington - This is a game the Bucs should win and win easily. Their defensive front should own the line of scrimmage and live in the Washington backfield…..but for some reason, I am PASSing here. I don’t know why, but something just doesn’t feel right with this one.
Panthers @ Cards - Sorry, but how is this only 10 points? The Panthers haven’t played well in a while and now Darnold is definitely out. Kyler may or may not back, but either way, this Cards team should run up the score on the Panthers and I am not sure how Carolina is going to score more than 14. Cards -10.
Vikings @ Chargers - You can run all over the Chargers and their DBs keep taking on injuries, but I still really believe in Herbert. That said, were you impressed with how they beat a pretty crappy Eagles team last week? I was not. Also, what the hell happens to kickers when they play for the Chargers. Koo couldn’t make a thing for the Bolts, now he is automatic. It is like the Bermuda triangle of kicking. I know Bryan Broaddus says “all games are must win in the NFL” and sure, but this one is REALLY must win for the Vikings. I think these teams are even and my model thinks so as well. I am going to PASS.
Eagles @ Broncos - Broncos just smashed the shit out of the Cowboys last week. It was dominating. The Eagles on the other hand should have lost to the Chargers by more, but I think Broncos are likely getting over hyped here. I am going to PASS but I would bet the over and lean towards Eagles.
Seahawks @ Packers - (shrug emoji)……. seriously. Do Rodgers play? If so, what does he look like? Wilson is back, but what does he look like? who the hell knows? (shrug emoji) PASS
Chiefs @ Raiders (SNF) - What is wrong with Mahomes is the 500 million dollar question for Andy Reid and the Chiefs. I do not know if he is hurt or if he has something going on in his life but he looks bad. Really bad…..but you know who else is really bad? The NY Football Giants and they just beat the Raiders. My model and I think the Raiders really should be favored so I am talk 1u on Raiders ML +125.
Parlays and Teasers:
I am continuing to tone it down this week. I will likely have one more and a team total on Sunday.
Loss → 1u 7pt tease @ 120 - BAL -0.5 / DAL -2 / NO +9.5
Loss →.25u Long Shot Parlay @ +2448 - Bal -420 / NO +130 / CLE +120 / Ari -500 / Dal -430 / Phi +3 (-120) / LAR -200
1u 6pt tease @ +150 LV +8.5 / NO +9 / Cle +8.5
0.5u parlay @ +115 DAL -429 / LV +3 (-135)
0.5u parlay @ +406 - LV +120 / NO +130
.25u Long Shot Parlay @ +2138 - NO +130 / LV +120/ CLE +115 / Ari -500 / Buf -750 / LAR -195
Best of luck in all your action!
Reminder, even on the free picks day, 3u plays are for paying subscribers only
This one will be more guiding to me than hard date. I try to make sure there is a good mix of qualifying games when I send it
BetOnline’s line.. Bovada is -2.5