NFL Week 11 Picks / Black Friday NBA Sale
I hope you all enjoyed free play Saturday for my NBA picks last week. It netted 6.2u profit and I will be sending the picks around for free tomorrow!
In the spirit of Black Friday, I am offering 20% off my NBA package starting today and running for the next week!!! Make sure you sign up now so that you get the NBA plays release later today!
#TitanicModel output:
3u Plays:
New England -6 (-110) - WIN
Cincinnati pk (-115)
2u Plays:
Tennessee -10 (-115)
Dallas +2.5 (-110) ← I am buying this up to 3
1u Plays:
Buffalo -7 (-115)
Minnesota +1.5 (-105)
San Fran -6.5 (-110)
Arizona pk (-125) - this assumes Colt. If it is Kyler this goes to 2u
Pittsburgh +6 (-110)
Detroit +13 (-120)
0.5u Plays:
Baltimore -4.5 (-120)
NY Jets +3.5 (-110)
Game by Game analysis:
Colts @ Bills - The Bills pummeled the Jets last week as the Mike White rocket came crashing back to earth, but here is the thing with the Bills - they still refuse to run the ball and I am really interested to see how that will impact them as their next few games should test their offense. The Colts D has been hit and miss, and then Bills play my 5th, 2nd, 12th, 6th, 2nd ranked D’s in order. Also, neither of these teams have really beat a good team, but I think Bills take care of business.
Ravens @ Bears - This game opened Ravens -7 and has gotten bet down and down and down and down and for the life of me, I am not sure why. I guess it is an overreaction to them looking like shit last week….While the Bears D and Special Teams have been reasonable this season, their offense hasn’t. The Ravens should win this and win it easily as I think Martindale’s D is going to make Fields very uncomfortable.
Lions @ Browns - I do not know what to do with this game and hope that I do not have to see any of it. The Lions are my model’s worst team in the NFL and some how they might be even worse this week without Goff. BUT of the things I was personally super wrong about last week, the Browns were reallllly high on that list. The Pats just beat the ever loving piss out of them. They look hurt, especially Baker, and their offense looks brutal without Chubb and he might not be back this week. I know I have said all season that Lions were going to blow up survivor pools and the tie last week did that, but I honestly would not be shocked if they won this one.
Texans @ Titans - The Titans should absolutely destroy the Texans, that is my analysis. This game should be 35-3.
Packers @ Vikings - Packers keep chugging along and their Oline play seems to just be getting better, while the Vikings coaching continues to baffle me. They seem to get away from the things they do well and it is rather odd. One thing we sometimes forget to scout is the refs…..From Risk Gosselin - Shawn Hochuli’s crew has this game and the road team have won the last 8 games his crew has officiated and is 18-6 over the last two seasons.
Dolphins @ Jets - I honestly do not know what the Jets are doing starting Flacco. They are not going to the playoffs and while I do not think Mike White is their long term future at QB, he could be a decent back-up and that is a valuable thing to have. On the other hand, we KNOW Flacco is washed up. I wonder if this is actually them tanking. I know my model says bet the Jets here, but I just can’t bring myself to bet on this game.
Saints @ Eagles - This line seems funky. As @JTFOz1 pointed out on twitter, Saints closed +3 @ the Titans last week and are currently +1 @ the Eagles so that implies the difference between the Titans and their best record in the league and the Eagles are 2 points…..Even with Jalen Hurts playing well (last 4 weeks have really good from him and last week he looked like Willie Beaman), this 2 point margin is VERY strange. I also think the Saints actually played pretty well last week and they got BONED by a terrible roughing the passer call that took away and end zone pick. I think Saints win this one.
Washington @ Panthers - I tried to warn you last week2 so I hope you didn’t lost your survivor pick on the Bucs!!! As they say in gambling….if it looks too easy, stay away. That one smelled fishy. I say all this because this one also seems fishy. Carolina looked great last week and their defense has been playing well. Cam gives them a dimension and a leader they haven’t had, but I think this line is too low, to me it should be 6, so something tells me Washington is the play here.
49ers @ Jags - The 49ers really put it to the Rams and Shanahan seems to have McVey’s number in these games. Something to keep in mind going forward, but let’s talk Jags. They were surprisingly feisty vs the Colts last week and I personally think folks are over rating the 49ers coming off last week’s big win.
Bengals @ Raiders - WHAT IS THIS LINE?!? Bengals should be favored by at least a TD. Yes, I might be over reacting the the last two games for the Raiders, but the D fell apart vs the chiefs and let’s not forget they LOST TO THE GIANTS. Yeah, I know, I picked them last week and I was wrong. Very wrong. The loss of Ruggs and his ability to keep the D honest deep is a major problem and I think the Bengals have the offensive weapons to pick apart that D, especially if Gus Bradley runs the same scheme as last week, and they are coming off the bye so I am going with my model’s play and you can call me an idiot when I take the L.
Cowboys @ Chiefs - This should be a fascinating game. Mahomes finally took the underneath stuff that was presented to him last week (13 completions behind the LOS and 19 within 5 yards of the LOS) and I am interested to see how Dan Quinn approaches this matchup. I worry for them if they put Diggs on Hill. That said, the Chiefs D sucks. They aren’t talented enough to make you play left handed and Spags might just dial up the pressure and Dak is great vs the blitz. I think Cowboys should be favored and win.
Cards @ Seahawks - To Kyler or not to Kyler, that is the question……I am going to Kyler. I shouldnt and should be smarter here, but I think he is back and I am going with it and I like have the hook on a 3 point game. I also think the over is the play here as I think Seahawks bounce back from the AWFUL performance last week.
Steelers @ Chargers (SNF) - One of the best calls I made last week was not watching Steelers/Lions. I hope you listened to me in my Friday post and grabbed that under3 . My model says to take Steelers and if I HAD to do something I would do that as I think Chargers are favored by too many. Similar to the Vikings, I am confused by why the Chargers offense seems to have fallen off when folks started to defend against Mike Williams. They should be so much better and I have a crazy amount of respect for the job Tomlin and I think he will have a game plan to stop the Chargers…..not to mention that the Steelers fans will be 80-20 in Cali.
Parlays and Teasers:
I am continuing to tone it down this week.
pending - 1u 7pt Tease @ +120 NE pk / DAL +9.5 / Washington +10.5
pending - 0.5u 6pt Tease @ +150 NE -1 / NO +7.5 / Min +8.5
pending - 0.25u Long Shot Parlay @ +2546 - NE -310 / DAL +120 / CIN -120 / NO +105 / MIN +105 / TB -556
0.5u underdog parlay +955 - DAL +110 / MIN +105 / Was +145
1.2u 6pt tease -120 - NO +8 / Washing +9.5
1u 7pt Tease +120 - Ten -3 / Washington +10.5 / (Thanksgiving) Dallas pk
Best of luck in all your action!
I also hope you don’t pay for a capper who told you to bet an over / under that didn’t exist. I know one very famous one told people to bet “under 42.5” after the line was taken down everywhere or posted MUCH lower on the Big Ben news and then he claimed the win using that number but if you look at the time stamps you can prove he is a fraud on this one. Sorry, that kind of shit really pisses me off.