NFL Week 13 Picks
Happy Friday!!
I will be short and sweet - let’s have a good football weekend. Lot of favorites on my card which has me apprehensive
#TitanicModel output:
2u Plays:
Arizona -7.5 (-110)
Minnesota -7 (-115)
Seattle +3.5 (-115)
1u Plays:
Tampa Bay -11 (-105)
Cinci -3 (-112)
LA Rams -13 (-105)
0.5u Plays:
Las Vegas -1 (-110)
Denver +9.5 (-110)
Game by Game analysis:
Cowboys @ Saints - from yesterday - Call me a homer and whatever, but I like this spot for Dallas. Getting Tank Lawrence back is a HUGE help to that defense and getting a fully healthy CeeDee Lamb back will help the offense regain their rhythm. I know Amari is back as well, but reports are that he still has after effects of COVID and a lot of the coaching staff are out with the virus as well. I also realllllllllly dislike the prospects of Taysom Hill at QB. Look, Sieieman was terrible and they needed to make a change, but Taysom is not going to be the answer and I think Cowboys D win that battle. - This aged well as the cowboys defense is what won them the game.
Bucs @ Falcons - I know it is not great to do but not much sure what to say other than Tampa Bay is a much better team and the Falcons are pretty poor. This line is pretty high. Sorry don’t have a lot of wisdom on this one, but Falcons wins are unimpressive and they have 4 20+ point losses. This is a battle of my 3rd best team @ my 31st best team…..Bucs -11.
Cards @ Bears - Give me the Cards. The Bears are going to have zero ability to keep up with the Cardinal’s offense and Kyler, but I think they try and the over is a good play in this game. I do not care that it is cold or that Kyler is just coming back from injury or the (frankly odd) rumor that Kliff is leaving to go back to college, nope. I am going to have to see Bears do this to believe it and yes I am prepared to see Kyler limping around in the 2nd quarter and feeling like an idiot.
Chargers @ Bengals - What is wrong with the LA Chargers. They look putrid as well. I continue to be a huge Herbert fan so I found it interesting to hear Trent Dilfer mention on Ryen Russillo’s pod1 that he thought they might be asking a little too much from him too soon but he has looked pretty bad the last 3-4 weeks. That said, I continue to love this Cinci team. I think they are still underrated. I am going to go with my model here as the Chargers rush defense is abysmal, BUT part of me is concerned the Bengals are going to have a let down game this week or next - I just feel like one is coming for them.
Vikings @ Lions - I will not tease Kirk Cousins. I will not tease Kirk Cousins. I will not tease Kirk Cousins. I will not tease Kirk Cousins. I will not tease Kirk Cousins. I will not tease Kirk Cousins. I will not tease Kirk Cousins. I will not tease Kirk Cousins. I will not tease Kirk Cousins. I will not tease Kirk Cousins………DAMN IT!!!!
Giants @ Dolphins - I know the Giants won last week and their defense played better than I thought it would, but what an unimpressive win. Their offense is absolutely dreadful and I think they are going to struggle mightily once again with a Dolphins team that is really coming on and while I am not a Daniel Jones fan (thought he wasn’t good at Duke) we know Mike Glennon sucks and sucks out loud. If you want to hear an interesting analysis as to why the Dolphins are playing better, I highly recommend listening to the GM Shuffle2 from Monday where Michael Lombardi gave some interesting insight into Brian Flores and coaching technique.
Eagles @ Jets - I am not going to bet this game and here is why. I do not think the Jets are a TD worse than the Eagles as I am still waiting for someone to please tell me when we are going to see Jalen Hurts throw a ball from the pocket and do it successfully. I said it last week and I will say it again, I do not think he can throw and hey, let’s give the J-E-T-S some credit for last week! I included them as a Money Line in my parlays for a reason, but do you believe in them this week? I do not, but I also don’t believe in Eagles. I think Jets keep this close.
Colts @ Texans - Colts lost a close one to the Bucs on Sunday, but this game here should not be particularly close, but what is holding me back is Tyrod, he has been hit and miss and alternating games. His QBR his last 4 games have been 22.1, 72, 15.5, and 97. Maybe this week will be a good week….maybe not, but I think I will pass for straight bet.
Washington @ Raiders - I frankly do not think either of these teams are very good. I tend towards lean Washington in this, but I do not think Vegas is going to play as well as last week. They do have 10 days rest, but I really do not like Derek Carr.
Jags @ Rams - As Bucky Brooks would say, this is a get right game for the Rams, but gooooooood lord are they soft as pudding. I was dead wrong last week as I thought they would go back to running the ball / play action in the cold in Lambeu and they did anything but that. I wonder McVey, by getting Stafford and not having to paper over the cracks that are Goff, has fully abandoned what made the offense so hard to deal with. They play with zero toughness and please do not message me about OBJ adding it, hard pass.
Ravens @ Steelers - This line got posted at +3 and zoooooooomed to +4.5. Big Ben is done. Sorry. He is a hall of fame QB, but the wheels are well off of that bus at this point. He is washed up. Ravens on the other hand beat the ailing Browns and in the last 3 weeks they have put up a grand total of 42 points to the Browns, Bears and Phins. They probably win this game, and next week vs Browns (especially if Baker keeps playing this way), but then they close with Packers, Bengals, Rams, Steelers, so I think that if they are going to get their o/u of 11 wins they are going to need to go 2-0 in these next 2 games3.
49ers @ Seahawks - There is something very wrong in Seattle and I am starting to believe the rumors that Wilson is going to be asking out of there in a more official way at the end of the season. I am also going to maintain that if you trade 4 first rounders for him then you are making a mistake. He is 33 (happy birthday earlier this week) and I personally think his holier than thou stuff is a complete façade as to who he really is4. I would want no part of that, especially for that price tag. That all said, the 49ers are going to be without there two best players in Debo and Fred Warner so I think Seahawks are the right side here, but I am prepared to be let down.
Broncos @ Chiefs (SNF) - I have loved the Broncos since before the season (still sitting with my over 8.5 wins bet out there) and last week’s game was exactly what I thought they could be - a dominating / suffocating defense augmented by an offense that doesn’t make mistakes, can make a couple big plays a game and bouyed by wildly underrated UNC alum Javonte Williams. That was perfect. This week is another story. I am going to bet with my model (as I do most of the time) as I feel ~10 points is too much, but I worry how Broncos would keep up with Chiefs on a normal let alone the insane track record that Andy Reid has post bye week.
Pats @ Bills (MNF) - You might be surprised to see this here and I will tell you why it is. When I thought about this line I thought it should be Bills -3. My model thinks it should be Bills -2.8. This line has bounced between -2.5 and -3 all week and frankly I think that is right. The weather in Western NY can be BRUTAL as they end to measure snow in feet, not inches and I believe the forecast is calling for lake effect. I am highly unlikely straight bet this game personally (I might throw a little bit on Bills -2.5), but I will watch every minute as I think this will be fascinating and I expect a close game and low scoring.
Parlays, Teasers, and Others:
I am continuing to tone it down this week.
Pending - 1u parlay +123 - Dal -222 / LAR -650 / Min -300
1u 7pt tease +124 - Min -0.5 / NE +9.5 / IND -3
0.5u parlay +413 - Sea +150 / Washington +105
0.5u parlay +468 - Sea +150 / Cinci -158 / Miami +255
1.15u over 27.5 Team Total Indianapolis Colts -115
1.15u under 42.5 points NE / Buf -115
Good luck in all your action! Have a great weekend!
Disclaimer, I took the under on 11 so I do not think they will do this
A bit of story as to how this feeling that I have for a while was confirmed for me…..In the last offseason before Dak signed his extension I got asked a lot “would you trade Dak for Wilson straight up” and my answer was always “While I think Wilson is a better QB, he is older (4.5 years age difference) and I do not think he is a real leader as I think he is a fake person”. One of the people I told that to, will remain nameless, but told me that his company actually brought Wilson in during the offseason to talk to them about being a high performer, every single person walked out of that room thinking “He is nuts and absolutely full of shit”. I do not want to get too far into what this person does for a living but safe to say their business is predicated on being able to read people / situations, tell what is real and fake and then put their money where there mouth is so I trust this judgement.