NFL Week 14 Picks and Analysis
Happy Friday!!
I have gotten some push back recently on at my “Parlays, Teasers, and Others” section with folks saying they lose every week. Well two thoughts:
You do not have to play these or any plays in here. My post is everything that I play. If you see my Model and analysis and think “TG has gone overboard with his Bengals love”, I will not at all be offended if you take a pass or even bet San Fran. While I have been a long term profitable gambler, I am not perfect and I lose specific bets every week.
While in the short run it might seem that these are losing, they are giving us good leverage and I assure you they are profitable. In fact, they have been very profitable this season. While Parlays have a paltry 9-45 record (which seems horrible), remember that on the season parlays are +5.9u. The other profitability for these are as follows: Teasers are +0.6u, Totals are +4u, Money Lines are -0.2u so yeahhhhhhh. Further, if you take into account hedges and futures we are up 9.2u (10 futures and 2 plays below pending).
The all said, let’s have a good football weekend and don’t forget tomorrow is NBA free play day! This is the last weekend of bye weeks so we will have a full slate of games starting again in week 15!
#TitanicModel output:
2u Plays:
Ravens +3 (-120)
Cowboys -4.5 (-110)
Bengals +1.5 (-108)
1u Plays:
Vikings -3 (-120) - win
0.5u Plays:
Titans -8.5 (-105)
Seahawks -9 (-107)
Panthers -2.5 (-115)
LA Chargers -10 (-105)
Bears +12.5 (-110)
Cardinals -2.5 (-110)
Game by Game analysis:
Steelers @ Vikings (TNF) - from yesterday- The defense that the Vikings played on that final possession was atrocious. I honestly do not know what they were thinking other than “don’t get beat deep”, but they oddly thought that when the Lions had the ball on the 8 yard line…..That said, the world has moved too far against the Vikings and I think they are the play here because Big Ben SUCKS. Sorry, he does. If your reaction to the report that he is going to retire or leave the Steelers in this offseason wasn’t met with “no shit” you aren’t paying attention. Mike Tomlin continues to be one of the best coaches in the NFL, but I just can’t see how they win this game.
Ravens1 @ Browns - As bad as the Monday night football game was to watch, I am not sure this one will be much better. The Ravens are the most injured team in the NFL and some how it gets worse each week. Speaking of injuries, while I am sure the bye week did Baker a load of good, I’d imagine he is still in a lot of pain. My model says Baltimore and I think that is the play, but I don’t feel great about it. I will also be betting the under. I think this is going to be like a 17-13 weird game.
Jags @ Titans - Each week it seems there is one game where I say “I hope I do not have to watch any of this game” and this is it this week. My model says Titans -8.5 and I do not have a good reason to doubt it as the Jags seem to be looking to the offseason already.
Raiders @ Chiefs - KC’s defense has quietly been playing fantastic football and I am not sure how the Raiders keep up with the KC offense in this game. I think this is a get right game for that offense and the D will stifle Carr and the Raiders. I actually wonder if the Raiders win again this season. Give me KC laying the points.
Saints @ Jets - Call me crazy, but I love the Jets here and it is really because I am very out on the Saints. I do not care that they have had 10 days off. They look a mess and Taysom Hill can’t throw the ball wit h10 fingers, let alone 9. Watch the Jets win this game.
Cowboys @ Washington - Dallas should win this and win this one easily. I am not sure what is wrong with the offense Kellen Moore has been calling the last 4 weeks (and it has been bad), but the defense has looked pretty good and is getting even healthier and more dangerous with Gallimore and Gregory back. I liked Washington to win last week and I actually think they will make the playoffs because they will beat the Eagles twice and the Giants once, I am just not sure they have the fire power to play with the cowboys, especially with Logan Thomas out.
Falcons @ Panthers - The Panthers fired Joe Brady because they weren’t running the ball enough and couldn’t fix Sam Darnold…..what??. Good luck on this game. My model says Panthers -2.5 and NO THANK YOU. I am fullllllly out on Cam Newton. He is terrible. These are two terrible teams.
Seahawks @ Texans - I was really looking forward to betting this when it was Seahawks -7, but sadly it has moved to -9. The Texans are terrible, really really terrible and they are going to have David Mills QB’ing this team. I would be SHOCKED if the Texans win this game.
Lions @ Broncos - This line has moved from 8 to 10 and my model thought this line should be 9.9 so this has lost all value for me betting wise. Broncos D should crush them, but the Lions have been frisky all season.
Giants @ Chargers - Jake Fromm is starting this game. While I am not sure the Chargers should be favored by this much over anyone and they blew a huge lead to a 9 fingered Burrow, but JAKE FROMM IS STARTING FOR THE GIANTS. I wish anyone who bets on the Giants a lot of luck.
49ers @ Bengals - I tried to tell you I felt that there was a let down game in the Bengals coming and that is why you saw me start adding LAC bets to my “Parlays, Teasers, and Others” section last week. It just seemed like it was going to happen. To me this week is not a question of who the Bengals have, but, as I said last week, it is about who the 49ers don’t have. I love the Bengals. I really do. I do not know why Cinci is not favored.
Bills @ Bucs - Brady has played the Bills 35 times in his career. He is 32-3. That that is complete ownership, BUT as we saw on Monday night, that might just be the Bill Belichick magic. My model sees that this line should be TB -2.2 so I think the Bills +3.5 give some value. I also think this is an interesting matchup. No one can run the ball in the first 3 quarters vs Tampa and the good news is that Buffalo doesn’t care about trying to run the ball, which worries me in cold weather or the playoffs, but doesn’t seem problematic in sunny and warm Florida. I do worry about Bills trying to stop Fournette given the Pats and Colts RBs still haven’t been tackled by a Bills defensive player. I will be betting the over on this one as well.
Bears @ Packers (SNF) - Call me crazy, but I like the model’s play on Bears +12.5. No, I am NOT saying the Bears are going to win this game. THAT would be crazy, but on a cold night in Wisconsin with Fields coming back I like them in this spot to at least backdoor cover.
Rams @ Cards (MNF) - I was wrong about the cardinals before the season, but as soon as the wins started you saw me jump on board as my analytics tell me they have been a top 5 team every week since week 4, including when McCoy was starting!! I know lots of folks didn’t think they’d cover last week and frankly they should have won by more. I think the Rams are as soft as a down pillow but here is the thing, I like the Rams in this spot and here is why - EVERYONE is now on the Cards band wagon and it is too much for me and I do not think that McVay likes that they got embarrassed the last time they played - this is a game the Rams need much more than the Cards.
Parlays, Teasers, and Others:
pending - 0.5u parlay @ 463 - Min -165 / Dal -200 / KC-444 / LAR +2.5
pending - 1u 7pt teaser @ +120 - Min +4 / Dal +3 / Bal +9.5
1u parlay @ +108 - GB -665 / DAL -207 / KC -455
1u 6.5pt teaser @ +135 - Buf +10 / Cin +8 / NYJ +12
1u 10pt2 teaser @ +200 - KC +0.5 / LAC pk / Den pk / Buf +13.5 / Chi +22.5 / LAR +12.5
0.5u parlay @ +372 - Cin +105 / BAL +130
0.25u parlay @ +505 - Cin +105 / NYJ +195
0.25u parlay @ 2435 - NYJ +5.5 / KC -460 / Cin +105 / LAC -481 / Den -480 / Buf-TB O54 / Chi +12.5
Good luck in all your action! Have a great weekend!
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32780223/which-nfl-teams-healthiest-homestretch-do-injury-checkup-all-32
this is called a sweetheart teaser