Week 14
Things of note this week:
This is that last week of byes and we have 6 teams on byes with the week off - Falcons, Bears, Packers, Colts, Saints, and Washington
Per Peter King, From late 1921 until last Sunday afternoon (so a time period of over 100 years), the Chicago Bears were the winningest franchise in NFL history, but with the loss, the winningest team in NFL history is now Green Bay with 787 wins
In Week 13 none of the 4 NFC East teams lost even though they all played and two of them played each other; bizarrely in Week 1 the AFC South had something similar but none of their teams won that week
Per David Purdum, NFL favorites were 12-1-1 straight-up and 10-4 against the spread in Week 13
Per Ben Fawkes, You'd be 24-0 ATS this NFL season if you teased every opponent of the Chargers and Rams by 6 points
Per CBS Sports HQ (via Todd Fuhrman), through Week 13:
Home teams are 99-92-4 ATS; including 21-10 the last 2 weeks
Underdogs are 102-88-4 ATS
Unders are 107-86-2
The games:
Game 1: Raiders @ Rams (Thursday 8:15 pm) win 0.45u
Game 2: Jets @ Bills (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Weather Report - cold with a wintery mix
Stat that might matter -
For the second week in a row, the Jets have regular rest, but their opponent has a mini-bye
Last year vs the Bills, Mike White and the Jets lost 45-17. He went 24-44 for 251, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, and a QBR of 31.8
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I know folks can bitch, piss, and moan about my Jets pick last week and how public it was and sure it lost but did you watch the game or look at the stats? If you go by yardage that game should have been a 32-19 Jets win, but they went 1 for 6 in the red zone with 2 turnovers. Now The Jets get to take on a Buffalo team they beat earlier this year, but this time they are taking Mike White to face a team that dominated him last year (stats above). It seems like the public was undeterred by their loss betting on the Jets this week, but I think the Bills could easily blow them out here so give me the Bills 1H.
Game 3: Browns @ Bengals (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Last week the Browns scored 24 points and none of them were scored by their offense
Per Sharp Football Analysis, the Bengals are 0-4 bs the Browns with Joe Burrow as QB
Per Ben Fawkes, the Bengals have gone 17-3 ATS in their past 20 games, including covering 9 of their last 10
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I am not sure why folks were surprised that Deshaun Cosby struggled last week. He didn’t play football for 700 days (100 weeks) and that last season he went 4-12. Deshaun gets to face a fantastic Bengals D. Their 2nd half performances have been fantastic as they are clearly making adjustments and they are seeing it pay dividends. On the Bengals, I know folks seem surprised that their OL is playing better but I am not. Earlier this season, in this very newsletter, I was saying that they changed too much of their OL and it would take time for them to start to gel. That all said, given how bad the Browns’ offense looked and the Bengals beating the vaunted Chiefs, doesn’t this seem like an overrated vs underrated spot? While my initial inclination would be to take the Bengals, the more I think about it the more I lean toward the Browns. My model says pass, and I think that is right so pass.
Game 4: Texans @ Cowboys (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Per Bobby Belt, the Cowboys have four 49+ point games since 2021, the rest of the NFL has 3
Per Rick Hribar, since Dak’s return, Dallas is 1st in points per drive, TD per drive rate, and third down conversion rate
Dallas is the first team ever to score at least 25 points, throw for 150+ and run for 150+ in 5 straight games
Per @ESPNStatsInfo, Dallas has 6 games with 4+ takeaways since Dan Quinn took over as DC in 2021, two more than any other team in the NFL
Per Ben Fawkes, the Cowboys are an NFL-best 20-8 ATS since the start of last season
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Dallas -17 (-114)
My 2 cents - I am honestly not sure what to say about these two teams and this game. This game includes one of the most talented teams in the league hosting likely the worst team in the league. Dallas should absolutely batter the Texans and it really does not matter that they are turning back to Davis Mills. I expect this to be a blowout of mammoth proportions as I have no clue how the Texans’ OL is going to deal with the Dallas DL. The Texans run a college offense and I expect Dallas to commit 8 or 9 to the box and try and force Mills to beat them. What concerns me? The Texans are going to want to beat their in-state foe while the Cowboys will be hearing all weak how amazing they are. Frankly, as a Dallas fan, I am much more concerned about them pissing away the Jags game next week and I think this Dallas team is going to demolish them so (and I can’t believe I am saying this) I am laying the points).
Game 5: Vikings @ Lions (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Futures update - With a win, the Vikings would cash our NFC North champ ticket
Stat that might matter -
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Minnesota +2 (-110)
My 2 cents - How many teams get on the plane after a game vs the Vikings and think “How did we lose that game?” It is wild. Look at their stats from last week and they should have lost that game if the Jets could do ANYTHING in the red zone. Raise your hand if you looked at this line and were like “ooooo Vikings look great”. It is fine you can put down your hand. This is clearly a bs line that the books are giving out to suck in as much Vikings money as can be had1. Count me out of that. I am taking the Lions (as I said on Tuesday). As for the total, I like the over and specifically the Lions TT over (up to 27.5) because as you look at the advanced numbers the Lions have a top 10 offense (pretty balanced too) and the Vikings D is suspect, especially against the pass (DVOA pass D is 24th).
Game 6: Jaguars @ Titans (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
The Jags have won back-to-back games only 1 once in their last 45 games
The Jags are 2-5 in 1-score games this year and are overall 4-8 ATS
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Tennessee Titans -3 (-135), yes I bought the half point
My 2 cents - Trevor Lawrence got the shit beat out of him last week. I was about as wrong as I could be about both of these teams last week so take all I am about to say with a grain of salt, but I really like the Titans to bounce back just as they did last year when they got embarrassed by the Pats (h/t to Joe Osborne). The Jags have one of the worst D’s in the NFL (my model has them 27th; DVOA has them 29th) and they do a terrible job playing assignment sound. I think given that, the Titans will be able to scheme open some plays. On the flip side, if they were fully healthy I would really like the Jags’ ability to move the ball through the air here and would be looking hard at Kirk’s receiving yards and Lawrence’s passing yards but Lawrence still hasn’t practiced so I do not think he is going to play….I’m telling you now if Lawrence plays I am going to take the total over for 0.5u.
Game 7: Eagles @ Giants (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Weather Report - could be rainy and pretty chilly
Stat that might matter -
Per Sheil Kapadia, Hurts from the pocket vs. TEN: 27-for-33 for 370 yards and 3 TDs
The Eagles have the 2nd-highest red zone TD percentage (73.8%), but the Giants have the 5th-best red zone D TD percentage in the NFL (48.9%)
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I was absolutely wrong last week about the Titans-Eagles game. They absolutely housed the Titans. The Eagles saw what I did, which is that they would struggle to run vs the Titans and so they turned to their passing game and the Titans had zero answers, especially given how well their OL blocked to give Hurts time in the pocket (stats above). It was truly a massive performance and I would be concerned if we see a letdown here, but I am concerned by how badly the Giants performed at the end of that game last week. I am still not entirely sure how they blew that win. A super interesting thing is that my model has the Giants as the 12th-ranked D, but Football Outsiders ranks them 28th and they seem equally bad vs the pass and run based on their calculations. If I was getting cute, I might take Philly 1H line and then Giants full game, but as I have been too cute recently I am passing on that strategy and will just grab the Eagles 1H. I do like the under here.
Game 8: Ravens @ Steelers (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Weather Report - rainy
Stat that might matter -
Per Mike Sando, Prior to last week teams were 0-206, since 1995, when they committed 2 turnovers, didn’t force a turnover, and scored 10 or fewer points, the Ravens made it 1-206
Titanic Model Output - 3u on Baltimore Ravens +2 (-110)
My 2 cents - Greg Roman can’t leave for Stanford soon enough. His offensive game plan is atrocious and he has misused Lamar all year. He needs to be under center and throw the ball more than he is. Now he is hurt and they have to turn to their backup who I actually do not this is THAT big of a drop-off in the scheme Roman runs. Last year Lamar was hurt and Huntley led the Ravens to a 16-13 OT loss vs the Steelers, but (and I can’t believe I am saying this) that Steelers D was far better than this one. The Steelers like to try and run the ball, but the Ravens have the 6th best run D by DVOA. My model LOVES the Ravens here and I am inclined to follow and get hurt again. Let’s go Ravens!
Game 9: Chiefs @ Broncos (Sunday 4:05 pm)
Futures update - with a win and LAC loss, we cash our KC to win the AFC West ticket
Stat that might matter -
Denver would now be 10-2 if their offense scored 18 points in regulation2
Unders in Broncos games are 11-1 this year
The Broncos have the worst red zone offense, scoring a TD 37.5% of the time, while the Chiefs have the 3rd-worst red zone defense, allowing a TD 65.9% of the time
The Cheifs have the 2nd-best 3rd down offense, converting 51.4% of the time, while the Broncos have the 3rd-best 3rd down defense, allowing a conversion 31.9% of the time
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on KC -9 (-110)
My 2 cents - This is the first of two games between these two games and generally speaking, I like to take the home dog in divisional matchups, especially with a team that has a fantastic defense (the Broncos D is number 1 in my model), but per Football Outsiders (who has them ranked 7th overall) the clear weakness is their rush D. While we generally think of the Cheifs as being amazing passing (they are), but they are also really good running it this year (rushing DVOA 11th). I was on the Bengals last week and I think KC bounces back here.
Game 10: Buccaneers @ 49ers (Sunday 4:25 pm)
Weather Report - more rain
Stat that might matter -
Per Adam Schefter, Tom Brady is now 137 in the regular season, and 2-43 including playoffs, when trailing by at least 13 points in the 4th. His 2 wins are SB LI vs the Falcons and last Monday vs the Saints
Per Ben Fawkes, Brady's Bucs are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games
Per Action Network, this will only be the 2nd time Brady is an underdog to a rookie QB
Titanic Model Output - 1u on San Fran -3 (-120)
My 2 cents - Purdy3 looked pretty competent last week and, while I believe in Kyle and his unbelievable stats with poor QBs, I think that Jimmy G's injury killed my SF SB and NFC title tickets. I would not be shocked at all if we see Josh Johnson playing at some point for them and do pretty well. For this week, what about the TB performance against the Saints makes you think they will be able to move the ball against this fantastic 49ers defense? What would this line have been had Ingram gotten that first down the other night? I know sharp money has bet this line down and I am happy to take a lower number, even if it means I am going to have to look myself in the mirror after this loss and know my dumbass bet on Brock Purdy over Tom Brady…..San Fran.
Game 11: Panthers @ Seahawks (Sunday 4:25 pm)
Titanic Model Output - 2u on Seattle -3.5 (-115)
My 2 cents - I know my Seahawks bet lost last week, but I still think it was a good bet as they turned the ball over twice in Rams territory. The Seahawks continue to be underrated by the talking heads on TV, but my model still has them as a top-10 team in the NFL as it really loves their offense, but thinks their D is suspect. They take on a Panthers team that has been much improved since Steve Wilks took over as they have been better about relying on their young and improving OL and D’Onta Foreman’s bruising running style. While I think they will find some joy in running the ball on the Seattle D, I think the Geno Passing attack will be too much so I am laying the points with the Seahawks.
Game 12: Dolphins @ Chargers (Sunday 8:20 pm)
Stat that might matter - Rich Hribar has some stunning stats about how bad the Chargers D is
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - If you are into “x team needs this game” handicapping then this is one of those games as it is clear the Chargers absolutely NEED this game, but what we saw last week is that when you can get pressure on Tua and speed up his process his ability to perform drops off dramatically and he starts to miss throws. That said, I do not believe the Chargers will be able to get that type of pressure and I expect Miami to at least convert one 3rd down (they went 0-7 last week). I love that the Dolphins stayed in Cali last week and I think this is just a bad matchup for the Chargers, especially on D. As Sharp Football Analysis points out, the Chargers give up 20+ yard plays more frequently than any other team and Miami is the 2nd best in producing those plays. I like Miami here and I really like the over.
Free College Football Bowl Picks Pool
I like to try to come up with fun ways to engage with folks so, if you are interested in this college bowl season, I am running an entirely free-to-enter college football bowl picks pool where you all will be picking each game against the spread. There will be monetary prizes for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and last places.
All The Plays
Model Plays:
3u play
Ravens +2
2u play
Seahawks -3.5
1u plays
Cowboys -17
Titans -3
49ers -3
0.5u plays
Rams +6 - win
Vikings +2
Chiefs -9
Parlays, Teasers, Other:
Loss - 0.575u 6pt teaser -115 on Raiders pk / Ravens +8.5
pending - 2u on Lions -2.5 (-107)
1u on Bills -6 1H (-110)
1u on Eagles -4 1H (-110)
1u on Miami -3 (-11)
0.5u on over Miami TT 27.5 (-125)
1u on Mia / LAC over 52.5 (-110)
0.5u on Phi / NYG under 44.5 (-110)
0.5u on TB / SF under 37 (-110)
2u on 6pt teaser -120 on Ravens +8 / Eagles -1
0.5u on 6.5 teaser +135 on Dolphins +3.54 / Chiefs -2.5 / Jaguars +10
1u parlay +133 on Eagles 1H -230 / Miami 1H -160
0.5u parlay +134 on Seattle -197 / 49ers -180
0.5u parlay +272 on Ravens +110 / Lions -130
0.25u parlay +440 on Eagles -340 / Lions -130 / Dolphins -175 / Seahawks -200
Player Props5
0.5u on Zeke Elliott over 68 yards rushing (-113)
0.5 on Kirk Cousins to throw a pick (-103)
0.5 on Amon-Ra St Brown over 83.5 receiving yards (-115)
0.25u on Mark Andrews to score a TD (+179)
0.25u on Russell Wilson to throw an INT (+106)
0.25u on Christian McCaffrey over 96.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115)
0.25u Long Shot Parlay of the Week - Like this tweet and subscribe to the substack to enter the giveaway contest!!
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
This is now the 3rd time this season that sportsbooks have been fucking with the Vikings lines. They did it vs Dallas (they wanted Cowboys money), they did it last week against the Jets (they wanted Vikings money) and they are clearly doing it here too. Let’s see if they go 3-for-3.
Some fun context to how bad their offense has been Denver’s offense has scored 45 points since Halloween, and the Cowboys scored 54 on Sunday and the Cowboys scored 7 touchdowns vs the Colts while Russell Wilson has 8 all year.
I was not a huge fan of him in the draft but some of my scout contacts really liked him and had him in the 4th or 5th round and they are thrilled he is going to get a chance
yeah yeah, don’t tease through zero
Some other props I like: Isiah Mackenize to score a TD +300; over 3.5 FGs Sea / Car -105