Some interesting trends and nuggets for your enjoyment this week:
NO MORE BYE WEEKS!
We have 3 Saturday games this week
Per Dave Tuley, through Week 14:
Favorites are 136-67 SU and 104-100-9 ATS
Home teams are 113-90 SU and 93-101-9 ATS
Unders are now 115-91-2; prime time unders are 29-15 and went 1-3 last week after a 3-0
2 weeks ago
Per Gilles Gallant, plus money INT props are now 75-77 +18.25u on the season after going 6-2 for +5.5u last week
Per Adam Schefter, the Ravens, Eagles, Lions, Cowboys, and 49ers all have playoff-clinching scenarios this week, while the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots are the only 2 who have been eliminated
Some Week 14 / Week 15 / team specific notes1:
Per Dave Tuley, in week 14, favorites went 7-8 SU (4-10-1 ATS); Unders went 6-8-1
Per Adam Schefter, The Raiders’ 63 points last night were the 2nd most in NFL history for a team that was shut out the prior game and the most they have scored in NFL history
More on last night’s game, it is a perfect illustration of why I think blind following trends/angles is a bad idea. Per Ben Fawkes, going into last night 4 teams were 10-3 to the under and two of them were the Raiders and Chargers. More to that point, here is Joe Osborne showing the very real stats about how bad the Raiders offense has been related to their team totals each week.
Per Raheem Palmer, the Browns D and the Cowboys O seem to have similar style home-road splits in their performances with them being significantly better at home than on the road
I highly recommend checking out Ben Baldwin’s analysis each week
The games:
We took a pass on Thursday night, but I hope you read the analysis. If you did and were more adventurous than I was you would have cashed both the Raiders -3 and the over of 34.5. I have gotten asked “Why do you break down every game even if you do not bet them” and that is exactly why. I hope folks are using these newsletters as a tool within their handicapping and maybe someone was leaning on those bets, saw that I kinda liked them too, and then went for it.
Saturday games:
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Sunday early games
Sunday late games:
College Bowl Pick’em Contest
The College Bowl season starts on Saturday, December 16th, and I am running my annual College Football Bowl Pick’em. The contest is completely free and you can win real money prizes!!
Pick a winner against the spread for each of the College Bowl games (to be eligible you MUST be a subscriber of the Substack). I am going to personally put up $200 for prizes (which will be paid in BTC). It will be $100 for first place, $50 for 2nd, $25 for 3rd, and $25 for last place. Come join us!
Night games:
Other Plays
Note that we have games on Saturday so I will see how that goes and then likely use that to gauge how much more risk to take on Sunday so be ready for a bigger-than-normal Sunday update.
UPDATE 10:15 AM - Okay so we had a slightly positive day yesterday with 0.6u of profit and all of our multi-left plays stayed alive. For today, I had planned more action but honestly I think we see lots of Dogs covering so going towards teasers today! Let’s get after it today!
Other bets
1u Washington +6.5 (-107)
Teasers
Pending - 1u 7.5pt teaser - Lions +3.5 / Bears +10.5 / Jaguars +10.5 (+113)
Pending - 1u 7pt Teaser - Vikings +10 / Cheifs -2 / Bears +10 (+124)
Pending - 0.5u 6.5pt teaser - Den-Det o41.5 / Dal-Phi o43.5 / Phi-Sea o41 (+150)
0.5u 7pt teaser - Panthers +10 / Bears +10 / Bucs +10.5 (+127)
0.5 7pt teaser - Saints +1.5 / commanders +13.5 / Jags +10 (+131)
Parlays
Pending - 0.5u Lions -213 / Packers -173 (+132)
Pending - 0.25u Jaguars +3.5 / Bears +3.5 / Vikings +3.5 (+456)
0.5u Bears +3 / Saints -245 / Bucs +3.5 (+384)
Props (0.25u each)
Pending - Justin Fields ATD +220
Loss - Justin Jefferson ATD +162
Pending - Gabe Davis under 35.5 receiving yards (-115)
Pending - Jake Ferguson over 42.5 receiving yards (-110)
Pending - Matthew Stafford over 0.5 INTS (+110)
Pending - Jalen Hurts over 0.5 INTS (+130)
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
I highly recommend giving all these accounts a follow as I just cherry-pick info, but they have tons of really great information