First and foremost, I want to wish you all and your families a happy and healthy holiday season. Whether you celebrate Christmas, Chanukah, Kwanza, anything else or nothing at all, this is an amazing time of year to spend with friends and family and take stock of the last 12 months. As such, I will have a 2022 year in review next week so be on the lookout for that!
Just a warning as I LOVE my betting card this week so be careful given how this week has gone.
Going to keep this one a bit shorter and sweeter this week. Let’s get to it!
Week 16
Things of note this week:
Note that MOST of this week’s NFL games are taking place on Saturday (Christmas Eve) so make sure you keep an eye on the days and time for each game below.
The 2 South divisions are a combined 23-55 against teams outside their own divisions
With Minshew, Folk and McSorley starting this week, we are now up to 59 starting QBs this year
A lot of these games will be played in absurdly cold temperatures, but remember the wind is really the thing to watch for
Per CBS Sports HQ (via Todd Fuhrman), through Week 15:
Home teams: 112-107-5
Underdogs: 118-100-5
Home underdogs: 49-37-3
Unders: 120-101-2
The Games:
Game 1: Jaguars @ Jets (Thursday 8:15 pm) - Loss -2u
Christmas Eve:
Game 2: Bills @ Bears (Saturday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
The Bills are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games
Titanic Model Output - 2u on Buffalo -8 (-110)
My 2 cents - The Bears remain a really frisky team and they are a team that is hard to count out getting a ton of points, but that is exactly what I am doing here and here is why - The defenses that are good against this single wing offenses are the ones that have a really fast defense, especially if they have fast LB’s and with Matt Milano playing the Bills have exactly that. Fields had a total of 91 yards passing last week and that is not going to keep this in the game as the Bills have the 3rd best passing offense (by DVOA) vs a Bears pass defense that is really poor (30th by DVOA). I am going with my model, and I am laying the points.
Game 3: Saints @ Browns (Saturday 1:00 pm)
Futures Update - Even a half sack will cost us the Myles Garrett under 13.5 sacks ticket
Weather Report - I am not meteorologist but this seems like the one that will have the most weather impact with cold, snow and (most importantly) 30mph winds
Stat that might matter -
Per Ben Fawkes, the total for this game is the lowest in the NFL since 2008
Titanic Model Output - 1u on New Orleans +3 (-116)
My 2 cents - I know a lot of people look at this game and say “Nope, no thank you”, and I get that 100%….That said, give me the points because I am just going to keep fading Deshaun Cosby every single chance I get! Also, I think Dennis Allen’s D is going to give Cosby some issues and I really think both of these teams are not very good so in that case I like the points.
Game 4: Texans @ Titans (Saturday 1:00 pm)
Futures Update - Titans are 7-7 and we have them under 9 for the season so as long as they do not go 3-0 (Texans, Cowboys, Jags) then we at least push our ticket
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Tennessee -3 (-113)
My 2 cents - It appears the match up here is going to be Malik Willis and Davis Mills so the question to me is what defense would I rather rely on. Well we know Tennessee can’t cover, but Davis Mills and their injured receiving corps is not going to be able to challenge them in a way that makes me worried. I know folks will see that they gave the Chiefs a game last week but look at the yardage, it was 502 to 219, that is blow out worthy. I totally get if folks want to stay away from this game, but my model likes the Titans so I am going with it.
Game 5: Seahawks @ Chiefs (Saturday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
The Seahawks played the 49ers last week; per Trey Wingo, in the game after they play San Fran, teams are are 1-12 on the season
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Seattle +10 (-107)
My 2 cents - I know you saw the pick here and rolled your eyes, but as they say in boxing “styles make fights” and I just see the Seahawks as a bad matchup for the KC D. I think the Seattle passing offense (5th by DVOA) will be able to move the ball on this porous KC pass defense (25th by DVOA) and keep this game closer than this line indicates so give me the points.
Game 6: Giants @ Vikings (Saturday 1:00 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Prior to the Vikings comeback teams with a 30-point lead were 1458-1
Per Sharp Football Analysis, Vikings are 10-0 SU as a favorite this season (only 5-4-1 ATS), but the Giants are 6-3-1 (8-2 ATS) as an underdog
Titanic Model Output - 1u on NYG +4 (-110)
My 2 cents - This easily could be the moment that the Vikings live up to their record and win 35-7 and I do not think the Giants are all that great, BUT I think the Giants will look at the game plan Dallas had against the Vikings and say “Why can’t Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence do what Micah and D-Law did and ruin the game?” I think they are right, because we all know if you hit Kirk he is going turtle. Also Vikings LOVE playing these close games and that is the type of game the Giants thrive in so give me the Giants and the points.
Game 7: Bengals @ Patriots (Saturday 1:00 pm)
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Oh man, what the hell was that by the Patriots. They look so poorly coached, especially on offense. Their play calling is atrocious. At some point, if we have to start to ask what happened to Mac Jones between last year and this year and is it as simple as the transition from McDaniels to Patricia? This really seems like the Bengals should be favored by a TD and yet they are only favored by 3. WHY IS THAT?!? Where is this Pats respect coming from? Why do I want to put all of my money on the Bengals money line?!? Why does my model this this line is right?!? That is wayyyyyy too many things that scare me so PASS.
Game 8: Lions @ Panthers (Saturday 1:00 pm)
Futures Update - Panthers are 5-9 and we have them under 6.5 for the season so as long as they do not go 2-1 or better (Lions, Bucs, Saints) then we will cash our ticket
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Lions -2.5 (-115)
My 2 cents - Is there a team getting more love than the Lions? sure they are 6-1 their last 7 games and they have played well, but they beat Zach Wilson led Jets, a fraudulent Vikings team, handily crushed the Jags, lost to the Bills, beat a bad Giants team, barely beat a bad Bears team, struggled to beat a bad Packers team…All I am saying that it is sometimes who you play, rather than how you play. I know my model like the Lions, but I think the Panthers are going to win this game, so I am going to pass.
Game 9: Falcons @ Ravens (Saturday 1:00 pm)
Titanic Model Output - 2u on Baltimore -6 (-114)
My 2 cents - okay, I know all of you are going to roll your eyes at this, but I LOVE the Ravens in this spot. They are really good stopping the run (6th best in the NFL) and the Falcons can only run the ball as that is their best part of their offense and unfortunately Ridder has not looked good at all. I do not see the Falcons being able to score in this game. Yes, I am terrified of this Greg Roman offense (seriously, how do you throw the ball 30 times last week and not keep feeding Gus bus and JK Dobbins), but I am a believer and going down with this Ravens ship so I am going to play this for 1u and then going to use them in exotics as I think they win but cover a TD could be sketchy.
Gamblers Paradise Discord
I know I bring this up each week when I tell you about the Discord and my giveaways, a fun chat as well as me talking about props on there that can help pad your bankroll, but this past Monday a few of us were talking about the Cowboys/ Eagles line well before the Hurts news came out. Come join us and make sure you do not miss out:
Game 10: Washington @ 49ers (Saturday 4:05 pm)
Futures Update - We have 49ers u10 and they are obviously at that number already, so any win and we lose the ticket.
Stat that might matter -
While almost every team is getting shorter than normal rest this week, Washington played late into the evening Sunday night in a divisional matchup, while San Fran is coming off a mini-bye.
Washington gets Chase Young back into their lineup
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - When I started to breakdown the games this one was one I honestly wasn’t sure what to do with it. I know a lot of the world will be betting on the 49ers and I expect them to be in a ton of teasers (including my own), but there is something that gives me a bad feeling here. I do not know why, but this scares me. I was very happy to see the model passed on this game as I think this line is pretty much dead on so I am passing as well.
Game 11: Eagles @ Cowboys (Saturday 4:25 pm)
Futures Update - As long as Zeke averages 42 or more rushing yards per game for the remainder of the season he will go over 900.5 rushing yards; Need Dalton Schultz to score 3 times and Diggs to pick 2 balls to win those futures. Eagles have a couple of scenarios to clinch our NFC East ticket and #1 seed (12-1!!!) ticket.
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Philly +4.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - Unfortunately, this game will once again be marred by the fact that we are not getting the two starters (only once in the last six meetings). In all transparency, I bet Dallas -1.5, then again at -2.5 and the money line. We talked about it on the discord (as discussed above), but at this point this line has moved so much that I am going to pass and I am really ready to have my weekend ruined when I lose a fortune on my favorite team. I know my model sees a little value at this line, but I would want to see it get back to the +6 / +6.5 range before I bet on the Eagles as I am not entirely sure that the difference is that great between Hurts and Minshew and I think the Eagles will run the ball a bit more and their rhythm RPO attack should hurt a Dallas team that can’t stop the run without Hankins and LVE. I know everyone seems to think this is going to be a score-fest but I like the under.
Game 12: Raiders @ Steelers (Saturday 8:15 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Per Action Network, Derek Carr is now 19-29-1 ATS on the road since 2017
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - The Raiders can’t cover anyone and it is shocking how badly the Pats were at trying to attack it. This week I expect that the Steelers will be able to make them pay, especially with frisky Kenny Pickett back. This is a fantastically coached team vs a team that really should not have won last week so normally I would fade the Raiders, but my model is taking a pass and I am as well as laying points with these Steelers QB’s is not really something I want to do.
Christmas Day:
Game 13: Packers @ Dolphins (Sunday 1:00 pm)
Futures Update - As long as Aaron Rodgers stays under the avg of 336 passing yards per a game we will cash under 4100.5 passing yards
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Miami -3 (-130) - I bought the half point
My 2 cents - This is a really interesting game. I think folks saw the Packers beat the heck out of the Rams and think they have their ship righted, but to me that is more of an indication of how bad the Rams really are. On the other hand, you have the ‘Phins who I (incorrectly) thought would struggle in the cold of Buffalo. They really held their own and I think they will win this game so I am going with my model and I expect these teams to come out firing. Another reason I really like Miami in this spot is that this is their first home game in a month as they return for 3 road losses. They now have a couple extra days of while the Packers come off a Monday night game.
Game 14: Broncos @ Rams (Sunday 4:30 pm)
Futures Update - As long as Russell Wilson stays under the avg of 415 passing yards per a game we will cash under 4050.5 passing yards
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Denver -2.5 (-120)
My 2 cents - In his weekly pick column, The Ringer’s Sheil Kapadia wrote “If you are finding time to watch this game on Christmas, it can mean only one thing: Your family is annoying the hell out of you and you need to get away. (Entirely possible, and we won’t judge you!)” and he is exactly right. You know I have been killing the Broncos all year, but I think they beat this atrocious Rams team so I’ll lay the points.
Game 15: Buccaneers @ Cardinals (Sunday 8:20 pm)
Futures Update - As long as Hollywood Brown stays under the avg of 114 receiving yards per a game we will cash under 925.5 receiving yards
Stat that might matter - With the loss last week, Tom Brady broke an 85 game win streak where he led by 17+ points
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Arizona +9 (-124)
My 2 cents - The Bucs continue to be awful, but luck out here as they get to face Trace McSorley. This is another Christmas game that I can’t imagine why folks would voluntarily watch this shit show……all I am going to end this with I am not sure that Tampa should be favored by this many points vs anyone, but I am not going to put my money on this crap, pass.
All The Plays
Model Plays:
2u plays
Jets pk - Loss
Bills -8
Ravens -6
1u plays
Saints +3
Titans -3
Seahawks +10
Giants +4
Dolphins *3
Cardinals +9
0.5u plays
Lions -3
Broncos -2.5
Parlays, Teasers, Other:
Pending - 1u on 6.5pt teaser +141 on Ravens -1 / Bills -2.5 / NY Giants +10.5
Pending - 1u on 6pt teaser -120 on Ravens -1.5 / San Fran -1
Win - 0.5u on Jaguars TT under 20.5 (-150)
1u on 7pt teaser +127 on Washington +14 / Patriots +10 / Panthers +9.5
0.5u on 7pt teaser +131 on Washington +14 / Patriots +10 / Cardinals +16
0.5u on 6pt teaser -120 on Raiders +8.5 / Saints +91
0.5u on GB / Mia 1H over 24 (-115)
0.5u on Dal / Phi under 46.5 (-110)
0.25u on Washington / 49ers over 37.5 (-105)
0.25u on LAR / Den under 36.5 (-108)
0.5u on Falcons TT under ← this line is not posted yet so as long as it is 14 or higher I will be betting this. I will tweet when I do
1u parlay +105 on Bills -400 / Broncos -155
1u parlay -106 on Bills -400 / Dolphins -180
0.5u parlay +429 on Panthers +125 / Saints +135
0.25u parlay +518 on Panthers +125 / Giants +175
0.25u parlay +570 on Saints +135 / Colts +185
Player Props
Loss - 0.25u on Trevor Lawrence to throw an INT (-139)
0.5u on Saquon over 101.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115)
0.5u on Goff to throw an INT +122
0.5u on Miles Sanders over 74.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115)
0.25u on Dawson Knox to score a TD +290
0.25u on Watson to throw an INT (+144)
Loss - 0.25u Long Shot Parlay of the Week
Just a reminder for the NFL as we head to the end of the season, as games become meaningless I will likely have less coverage and Week 18 is usually a no or very minimal bet week for me. I am still not sure what, if anything, I will be doing for the post-season so let’s finish strong and see where we land!
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
Edit note: this originally had a typo of raiders +2.5, but that was obviously the line I was teasing up to 8.5 so that has been updated