First and foremost, I want to wish each of you a happy, healthy, and safe holiday period.
Whether you celebrate Christmas, Chanukah, Kwanzaa, Diwali, something else, or nothing at all, I still think the end of the year is a magical time and a time we all should try to remember how lucky we all are. Yes, some are luckier than others, but we all have some things to be thankful for and it is always a good time to remind ourselves of that and also to remind those around us how much we appreciate them.
Okay, enough with the sappy shit. Let’s get to the picks!!
-T
Some interesting trends and nuggets for your enjoyment this week:
This week we have 2 Saturday games and 3 Monday games.
Programming Note - Given that we have multiple games on Saturday and Monday, I am definitely going to have a Sunday update and possibly even a Monday update as I want to see how games go before I push too hard this week. I have some action on games I want to lay, but I want to see how injury reports shake out so make sure you are ready for that update!
Per Dave Tuley, through Week 15:
Favorites are 148-71 SU and 113-94-12 ATS
Home teams are 124-95 SU and 102-105-12 ATS
Unders are now 124-98-2; prime time unders are 30-17 and went 1-2 last week
Per Gilles Gallant, plus money INT props are now 76-80 +16.5u on the season after going 1-3 for -1.75u last week
Playoffs:
Baltimore, Dallas, Philly, and San Fran are all officially in the playoffs
The Jets, Pats, Titans, Commanders, Panthers, and Cardinals are all officially eliminated
Per Adam Schefter, the Browns, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Lions can all lock in spots this week.
Some Week 15 / Week 16 / team specific notes1:
Per Dave Tuley, in Week 15, favorites went 12-4 SU (9-4-3 ATS); Unders went 9-7
Per ESPNStatsInfo, the Ravens / 49ers is only the second time in the last 10 years that the top two Super Bowl favorites will meet in a Dec. or Jan. regular-season game
Does it feel like tons of teams are relying on backups this year? David Helman points out, 12 teams that have started 2 QBs this season, another 4 that have started 3 QBs and the Browns & Vikings have needed 4. That is 18 of the 32 teams that have had to play backups.
Per the Action Network, Teams after scoring 60+ pts in their previous game are 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS since the 1970 merger so keep an eye on the Raiders this week.
There is a lot of talk about how the Cowboys always fold down the stretch and how last week’s game was emblematic of that. Well, the Cowboys are 12-3 in December with Mike McCarthy as coach. Further, since he came into the league, Dak Prescott is 20-7 in December. Those 20 wins are 4th most in the NFL over that time period as Rodgers, Mahomes, and Brady have 21.
Per Evan Abrams, Dak Prescott is 6-13 straight up in his career on the road vs. over .500 teams, including 0-3 this year. That is 114th out of 116 QBs in profitability during his time playing.
I highly recommend checking out Ben Baldwin’s analysis each week
The games:
Thursday Night Recap
We hit our over and that last TD and two-point conversion got us to the second leg of our teaser so that is always nice! My any-time TD bets continue to be a complete jinx for the player as Kupp didn’t score and he stayed under his yardage props.
Saturday games:
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Christmas Eve early games:
Christmas Eve late games:
Christmas Day (Monday):
Other Plays
Similar to last week, we have games on Saturday so I will see how that goes and then likely use that to gauge how much more risk to take on Sunday so be ready for a bigger-than-normal Sunday update and I might even have a Monday update!
UPDATE 10AM ET - Well we had a good Thursday and Saturday and are sitting up 2.2u and all of our parlays/teasers are still alive. I am going to add a small bit here, but not a ton as we have a fair bit of exposure still out there, especially on the Vikings, which is shaping up to be a key game for us.
Other bets
0.25u Ind-Atl under 45 (-110)3
Teasers
Pending - 1u 7pt teaser Cowboys +8.5 / Vikings +10 / Chargers +19 (+127)
Pending - 0.5u 6pt teaser Saints +10 / Texans +8.5 (-115)
Pending - 0.5u 7pt teaser Steelers +10 / Dallas +8 / Chiefs -3 (+124)
0.5u 7pt teaser NYG +20.5 / Ari-Chi over 36 / Cle - Houston u47 (+135)
Parlays
Pending - 0.5u on Bills -800 / Steelers +3.5 / Vikings +3.5 (+302)
Pending - 1u Seahawks -170 / Chiefs -500 (-110)
Pending - 0.5u Falcons -140 / Bills -810 (-108)
Pending - 0.25u Steelers +145 / Vikings +135 (+476)
0.5u Jags -118 / Falcons -152 (+206)
Props (0.25u each)
Loss - Cooper Kupp ATD +120
Pending - Russell Wilson over 0.5 INTs (+150)
Pending - Jalen Hurts over 0.5 INTs (+131)
Win - Josh Allen over 0.5 INTs (+100)
Pending - Jake Ferguson ATD (+225)
Pending - Chuba Hubbard over 73.5 rushing yards (-124)
Pending - Bryce Young over 13.5 rushing yards (-118)
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
I highly recommend giving all these accounts a follow as I just cherry-pick info, but they have tons of really great information
At 10:18 am this was updated to correct a typo. It had said Ind-Hou but obviously that’s not a game being played and should have said Ind-Atl