Before we get into the games this week I wanted to talk about betting Week 18 in the NFL. This is one of the most fun, but craziest weeks to bet. You are not 100% sure who is going to play and for how long in many of these games. You can make money this week, but I tend to be a bit more selective and reticent with my action.
One other thing to keep an eye on is the “must have it” games, where one team needs to win and you think that the other team has nothing to play for. I know what I am going to say is about to sound like I am saying 2 + 2 = a carton of milk, but it tends to be smart to fade the team that needs the game. Per what I heard on VSIN, since 1990, in the final two weeks of the year featuring one team that is eliminated and the other team needing it - the team needing the game is 64-100-4 ATS.
Part of this is the folks just assume teams who are eliminated won’t try, but that is not the case, especially for teams where the coach will be coming back next year. Pair that with the fact that teams playing for their lives can be tight and, if things start bad, they can get worse quickly.
One last thing is that starting next week, and throughout the playoffs, the format for picks will change a bit. For each game that will include:
my game breakdown
props I like
weather report
line movements
stats that might matter
The recaps will drop to the bottom and the format for picks will look quite a bit more like last year’s more detailed write-ups, so I hope you all are looking forward to that!
-T
Week 17 Recap
I have belabored points enough so I will be brief here - Well, last week was not what I had hoped and we dropped 1.9 units. Atlanta was really our key game and they got absolutely smoked.
Futures that settled1 and move to 5-14 +1.8u:
Green Bay over 7.5 - Win
Browns most improved team - loss
Browns to win AFC North - Loss
Denver to miss the playoffs - Win
Browns to make the playoffs - Win
Bengals to win the AFC - Loss
Bengals to win the SB - Loss
Week 18 games:
Saturday games:
Gamblers Paradise Discord
Early Sunday games:
Sunday late games:
Other Plays
I will definitely be back Sunday for an update this week.
UPDATE 11AM - Okay, the final Sunday of the NFL season is here!! Keeping it a little lighter this week! Let’s get after it!
Other bets
Teasers
Pending - 0.5u 6pt teaser Panthers +10.5 / Titans +10 (-110)
Pending - 1u 7pt teasers Ravens +10 / Bears +10 / Cowboys -6 (+127)
0.5u 7pt teaser Broncos +10 / Panthers +11 / Titans +10.5 (+131)
1u 7pt teaser Broncos +10 / Cowboys -6 / Bengals -0.5 (+127)
Parlays
1u Chargers -165 / Bengals -350 (+106)
0.5u Dallas -900 / Atl-NO over 42 (+112)
Props (0.25u each)
Pending - Justin Fields over 55.5 rushing yards (-117)
Pending - Geno Smith over 0.5 INTs (+130)
Pending - CJ Stroud over 0.5 INts (+135)
Pending - James Conner ATD +110
Pending - Brandin Cooks ATD +140
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
Note that I only grade things as wins when there is a clinch