Some interesting trends and nuggets for your enjoyment this week:
As of right now, it is expected that the Midwest and Northeast will experience some extreme weather on Sunday, especially wind, so that is something we should take into account when handicapping
We have two teams off this week with the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers taking the week off.
The San Fransico 49ers are the only remaining team undefeated against the spread at 4-0-1, but there are 3 winless ATS teams1
Does it feel like scoring is down? It is!! Per Gilles Gallant, the number of TDs through week 5 has gone from 453 to 443, to 386 to 376 over the last 4 seasons
Per TruMedia’s database (since 2000), only 3 teams have performed better than this year’s Dolphins in terms of EPA per drive2
Some Week 5 / Week 6 specific notes
Per John Ewing, NFL teams getting +50% of bets are 44-27-3 (62%) ATS this season; the best public start since 2005.
Per John Ewing, since 2003, winless ATS teams in October or later have gone 71-61-5 (54%) ATS; Underdogs that are winless ATS have gone 50-36-3 (58%) ATS.
Per John Ewing, since 2003, winless NFL teams in October or later have gone 145-128-6 (53%) ATS; Including 41-29 (59%) ATS as double-digit underdogs.
I highly recommend checking out Ben Baldwin’s analysis each week3
The games:
Really interesting how my model has passed on so many games this week but when it has decided to take a crack it is taking big swings. Will be interesting to see how it does!
I got asked about it last week so here are the games that would have qualified for 0.5u bets IF I was keeping them in:
Panthers +13.5
Colts +4
Cardinals +7
Chargers +2.5
TNF Recap - We didn’t bet the game and I am glad we didn’t as I was almost certain to bet the Broncos +10.5 and would have lost by the hook. Instead, we aimed small and hit small so we picked up our Wilson pick nice and early. It also seems like a matter of time before he is benched, let’s just hope it happens soon enough for us to cash our 22-1 ticket.
Note - The first Sunday game is in London (COYS!!) and takes place at 9:30 am ET.
Other Plays
One of the reasons I am so big on transparency is that I can tell you who I am betting and you can see my record and choose what is right for you (e.g., follow, fade, follow only some) so to that end….reminder from Thursday - the below have not been profitable so far so something to keep in mind when you are thinking about what to bet.
Totals, Parlays, Teasers, and Props:
Spread / ML
1u Dallas Cowboys ML (-135)
0.5u Carolina Panthers +13.5 (-107)
0.5u Cleveland Browns +10 (-110)
0.5u Chicago Bears ML (+135)
0.25u Seattle Seahawks ML (+130)
Totals
0.5u Detroit Lions / Tampa Bay Bucs over 42 (-110)
0.5u New England Pats / Las Vegas Raiders under 41.5 (-113)
0.25u San Fransisco 49ers Team Total under 23.5 (-120)
Teasers
1u 7pt tease on Pats +10 / Seahawks +10 / Bears +10 (+120)
0.5u 6.5pt tease on Panthers +20 / Giants +21 (-120)
0.5u 6pt tease on Patriots +8.5 / Texans +7.5 / Eagles -1 (+147)
Parlays
1u Jaguars -195 / Eagles -310 (+100)
0.5u Texans +105 / Patriots +130 (+372)
Props (all 0.25u)
Brock Purdy over 0.5 INTs (+140)
CJ Stroud over 0.5 INTs (+125)
Josh Allen over 0.5 INTs (-105)
Jalen Hurts over 0.5 INTs (+140)
Christian Kirk to score a TD (+175)
Jakobi Meyers under 56.5 receiving yards (-115)
Note with the “other” section, I use multiple books to bet so as I construct these the odds/spreads can be different between the books and between bets.
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
NYG are 0-5; Panthers and Broncos are 0-4-1.
2011 Saints, 2007 Pats, and 2004 Colts
I realized as I was prepping for this week that I forgot to add the actual link last week. Sorry about that.