NFL Week 6 Picks / DFS Update
Happy Friday!!!
Last week didn’t go as planned with winners, but I really appreciate the feedback I got from folks. From everything I hear, the game-by-game analysis was a huge hit so you will see I moved that up to the top of the post. If you want to just skip to my model plays / teasers and parlays than just scroll down until you see the page breaks.
Let’s crush this week!
Game by Game analysis:
Dolphins vs Jags (London) - My numbers have the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 2nd worst team in the NFL right now, BUT they have Miami as THE WORST. I know my model says to take the Jags and the points and I am looking HARD at it as I am really note sure the Dolphins should be favored by more than a FG against anyone at the moment. Also, if you are here for the Tua love and think him playing makes a huge difference, you are in the wrong place. Go check out Warren Sharp and his overpriced picks for that. I am going to PASS.
Packs @ Bears - I tried to warn you all last week about the Packers. They are not looking right and nothing about last week’s missed kick-o-rama changes that view. The Bears on the other hand had a defense that turned back the clock to 1985 with an absolute spanking of the Raiders1. If my guy Justin Fields2 is good to go, then so am I, Bears +6 and don’t be surprised when you see the Bears and their ML in my teasers and long shot parlays below
Bengals @ Lions - I will try not to pull anything patting myself on the back last week for warning you all about taking this frisky Lions team to lightly against that very strange Vikings team. That team has so much talent and I have heard for years how great of a coach Zimmer is, but that team is all over the place. All that said, this Bengals team is legit and I think they are going to cruise here, Bengals -3.5
Texans @ Colts - The Colts played 3 good quarters of football versus the Ravens to kill my model’s 2u bet on Monday. Do we think they can do it again? On the other side you have the Texans who did the same vs the Pats to win us our 1u play (apologies for the late add, I will try not to have that happen). I am honestly not sure which team is for real. I am going to PASS, but would not be at all surprised to see this game go over the total.
Rams @ Giants - This could get really ugly, but I wonder if the Rams know that and this is a bit of a let down game for them. If the line was in the 6.5-7.5 range I would be ALL OVER the Rams here, but the let down prospects worry me so PASS. This is a good tease candidate.
Chiefs @ Washington - Am I the only one who watches Tyler Heineken3 and think “Damn, if he had some really good coaching he might be dangerous”? Maybe, but would you be shocked at all if the Chiefs were up 10 or 13 with like 3 min left and Heineken drives to score with like 30 seconds left for the back door cover? Yeah, me either PASS
Vikings @ Panthers - Freaking Sam Darnold. They bossed that game and managed to screw it up. Mike Lombardi is right, if you win the 4th quarter you are winning these games. As Eminem would say “Can the real Vikings please stand up?”. I think Vikings look at the game plan Dallas had vs the Panthers and try to bully them with the run game and augment with their own 2 outstanding WRs, while Kirk is no where close to as good as Dak, I do like them in this spot and no CMC is helping me here I like Vikings -2.5.
Chargers @ Ravens - My numbers have these as the the 7th and 8th best reams in the NFL and I think that is about right. If Ravens let Lamar throw the ball early (or at all these last few years4) we easily win our MNF bet. Herbert is another one I have loved since his time in college, he made a shitty Oregon team good. I really don’t know so PASS, but can’t wait to watch.
Cardinals @ Browns - Well, I still don’t get why everyone was on Lance and the 49ers last week and it worked out for me. I do get why folks like the Browns, but at some point we are going to have to have a conversation that Baker seems to struggle in the 4th quarter of big games. He just does. No Chubb is also a big one for me, though so is no Chandler Jones. Count me in as a Kyler believer (I wasn’t before the season - see: Futures bet of Arizona under) until he gets hurt, which is coming. Cards +3.5 is my pick and I will be using their ML as well. **BET CANCELED DUE TO COVID** I hate doing this but the COVID thing is running through their team and I’ve heard we are going to get more positives.
Raiders @ Broncos - If you have been following my account you know I had Den over and Vegas under futures from before the season so it will likely not surprise you to hear that I liked Denver before the firing / resigning of Gruden and that has not changed. I believe Denver really should be favored by a TD BUT this might be a galvanizing moment for the Raiders. I am going to PASS.
Cowboys @ Patriots - Dallas did what I was waiting to see which was completely dominate that Giants team. Yeah, I know. Saquan, Danny Loose Change and Golladay all got hurt, but the only reason that game was close at halftime were Cowboys’ mistakes. Raise your hand if you have been convinced by single performance the Pats have had this season…….yeah, me either. I get worried about Tyron’s neck but I trust Jerry when he says Tyron is going to play so I do not think the Pats offense can score with Dallas and if they try to take away the running game Dak is going to wing the ball around. I am going Cowboys -3.
Seahawks @ Steelers - I know what my model says above, but if you have the stomach to bet on Geno Smith or this WASHED version of Big Ben then god bless you. I am a PASS.
#TitanicModel output:
Looks like my model thinks the lines the books have up are much closer to “right” than in previous weeks.
2u Plays:
Cin -3.5 (-105)
Ari +3.5 (-120)
1u Plays:
Chi +6 (-115)
Hou +10 (-110)
Sea +5 (-110)
0.5u Plays:
Jax +3 (-115)
Car +2.5 (-105)
Den -4 (-110)
Dal -3 (-116)
Parlays and Teasers:
(pending) 3 team, 7 pt Teaser for 1u @ +120 - Phi +14 / KC pk / Buf +1
(pending) Long shot parlay of 0.25u @ +3493 - Jax +150/ Chi +175 / Cin -180 / Ari +140 / Buf -250
(pending) Parlay of 0.5u @ +504 - Cin -180 / Min -125 / Den -185 / Buf -250
Parlay 1u @ +248 - Dal -180 / LAR -481 / KC -310 / Buf -250
6.5 pt Teaser 1.3u @ -130 - LAR -3 / KC -0.5
Daily Fantasy:
It looks like McLaurin is going to be out so making updates to my lineup
QB - Prescott 7,1000
RB - Henderson Jr 6,000; Mixon 6,400
WR- Amari Cooper 6,000; Chase 6,700; Woods 6,100
TE- Henry 3,900
Flex- Shenault Jr 4,900
DST - Buffalo 2,900
Best of luck in all your action! Let’s cash some tickets!!
Yes, I do think the Gruden news starting to come out on Friday had an effect, but that was a really really impressive performance
I was of the opinion that draft should have been a discussion between Lawrence and Fields for the number 1 pick. Yup, I am that much a believe in him.
Yup, I made the dad joke. Don’t care. I’m a dad.
Just like Justin Fields, I have been on the Lamar train since his time at Louisville. I could NOT believe he got drafted so late and think they have under utilized his throwing for years…In case you think I am always right about QB’s I also LOVED Paxton Lynch….whoooops