Some interesting trends and nuggets for your enjoyment this week:
We have 6 teams off this week with the Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, and Houston Texans taking the week off, but as Peter Schrager points out, we have a full slate of games next week.
There are no longer any undefeated teams ATS while the Broncos and Panthers1 are the teams left winless vs the spread (0-5-1).
I touched on lower scoring last week, well:
In Week 6 teams averaged 18.4 pts per game, the lowest since Week 15 in 2014.
Unders have hit at a 61.5% clip, the highest since 1991
The average total thus far is 44.1, the lowest since 2011
Only 3 AFC teams (Pats, Titans, and Broncos) are under .500, while the NFC has 6 teams underwater.
There is a coastal storm brewing in the Atlantic so keep an eye on the winds in Philly, NJ, New England, and Baltimore.
Some Week 6 / Week 7 specific notes
Per Mike Clay, the Miami Dolphins scored 70 points in week 3 vs the Broncos. The NY Giants have scored 71 points this season.
Per The College Kids, The Philadelphia Eagles are 84-47-1 with Lane Johnson and 13-23 without him. Their numbers for points per game, 3rd conversion %, and 4th down conversion % are all drastically different as well
Per Joe Osborne, in their games this season against the Cowboys, 49ers, Seahawks, Dolphins, and Bills, the Giants offense has scored just one total touchdown.
I highly recommend checking out Ben Baldwin’s analysis each week
The games:
I got asked about it 2 weeks ago so here are the games that would have qualified for 0.5u bets IF I was keeping them in:
Saints -1 (Loss)
TNF Pick Recap - Well that was freaking frustrating. The Saints came out early and looked absolutely lifeless. Looked like we got a pick to get a push on the 1H under. That got overturned, Jags made the FG to scrap that. Then the Saints come all the way back to tie the game. The Jags score on a long play. Saints march right down the field and their TE drops a WIDEOPEN TD. oh well.
Other Plays
I finally was profitable with these picks last week so that means it is time to go ALL IN!!!!! Just kidding! These picks have a long way to go to be profitable so make sure you do what is right for you….
Totals, Parlays, Teasers, and Props:
Spread / ML
1u Falcons +2.5 (-105)
1u Ravens -3 (105)
0.5u Colts +3 (-110)
0.25u Bears +120
Totals
0.5u Buf / NE over 40 (-110)2
0.5u LAC / KC over 48 (-105)
0.25u PIT / LAR over 40 (-110)
0.25u Dolphins team total under 24.5 (-115)
0.25u Green Bay Packers team total over 22.5 (-115)
Teasers
0.5u on 7.5pt teaser - Colts +10.5 / Falcons +10 / Steelers +10.5 (+110)
0.5u on 6pt teaser - Seahawks -1.5 / Falcons +8.5 (-120)
0.5u on 6pt teaser - Bills -2.5 / Chargers +11.5 (-115)
Parlays
1u on Seahawks -350 / Packers -125 (+131)
0.5u on Rams -175 / Ravens -150 (+160)3
0.5u on Colts +3 / Ravens -150 (+218)
0.25u on Colts +120 / Falcons +120 / Bears +145 (+1086)
Props (all 0.25u)
Bijon Robinson over 84.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115)
Matt Gay over 6.5 kicking points (+100)
Jordan Love over 1.5 passing TDs (+110)
DK Metcalf anytime TD (+140)
Brock Purdy over 0.5 INTs (+170)
Note with the “other” section, I use multiple books to bet so as I construct these the odds/spreads can be different between the books and between bets.
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
The Panthers are on a bye so they will still be winless next week
EDIT NOTE: This post originally said “over under 40” The correct bet was over and was updated accordingly at 11 a.m. on Oct 21 when identified
EDIT Note: This post originally said “Ravens -415 / Ravens -150”. Obviously that is not correct and it was supposed to say Rams. This was updated accordingly at 4pm on Oct 21 when identfied