NFL Week 8 Picks and Analysis
Happy Friday!
My NBA Model testing has been going on since Monday (so only 4 days of action) and it is going really well. Here is the current performance:
The best part is that the more data I get, the model’s performance should only improve!!! Please make sure you subscribe to make sure you don’t miss a beat:
Let’s crush this week and cash some tickets!!
EDIT: Make sure to also check out my Sunday update:
#TitanicModel output:
I was asked to move this back to the top so here you go.
2u Plays:
Seattle -3 (-116) - released Wednesday
1u Plays:
Arizona -6 (-113) - released Monday - LOSS
Buffalo -13.5 (-116) - released Wednesday
Cleveland -3.5 (-110) - released Wednesday
Cincinnati +10.5 (-115)
New England +4.5 (-110)
Denver -3 (-115)
New Orleans +4.5 (-105)
0.5u Plays:
Carolina +3 (-105)
Chicago +4 (-109)
Tennessee +2.5 (-102)
Game by Game analysis1:
I want to start with an admission - I am a pretty confident person and I believe in my football knowledge, analysis, and model, but I am human so when I saw that EVERYONE was on the Eagles last week (including many folks I like and respect) and the line went from LV-3 to LV-1, I got concerned that maybe I just fully missed on that bet……In all reality I should have jumped it from 2u to 3u using that LV-1 and banked the profits for all of us. I still don’t get what everyone was looking at with that one.
Panthers @ Falcons - Has Arthur Smith finally unleashed the monster that is Kyle Pitts?!? If so, this team might be a dangerous proposition. That said, do I really give them a ton of credit for beating what I think is a pretty crappy Miami Dolphins team? NO!! Panthers on the other hand just got their asses kicked by the Giants. PASS, I am out on both of these teams.
Dolphins @ Bills - I am not a fan of Tua. I haven’t been since he was drafted. That 2nd pick last week was awful…….all that said, I think he actually played really well last week. If their defense could have stopped the Falcons from completing a sideline fade to Pitts they would have won that game. The Bills are my 3rd best team and we have seen them take teams that aren’t very good and destroy them this season 2 TD’s is a lot to give up, but I am going with Bills -13.5.
49ers @ Bears - I owe everyone who follows me an apology. I believed in Kyle. I thought that going against a relatively vanilla Tampa 2 defense, that lost its 2nd best player, with 2 weeks to prepare would be something he could smash. He did that for 1 drive. Then his defense couldn’t figure out “The ball is soaked and the wind is blowing so any deep ball will be short SO DO NOT COMMIT DPI”. I love Justin Fields and have, but I agree with Trent Dilfer’s assessment of last week2 - the game looked like it was moving too quickly for him and his coaching staff is doing him zero favors. If 49ers didn’t no show, I would pick them, but they did so it is a PASS
Steelers @ Browns - A washed QB vs a hurt QB. My model thinks these teams are 19th and 17th best NFL teams respectively and I think that is fair so you are going to ask why I am going Cle -3.5. Here is the reason: I think the Steelers offense is that bad. I do not think they will be able to score more than 14 points in this game.
Eagles @ Lions - I I am going to keep saying this….the Lions are going to blow-up survivor pools one of these weeks. They gave Rams a decent fight and I loved them going YOLO ball last week. Why not?!? I see this as a super trendy pick for the Lions to pick up their 1st (and likely only win of the season). I would not be surprised at all if that happens here, but would I think it is just as likely that I check the score at halftime and it is 24-3 Eagles. I Love to zag on everyone who says Lions win this game, I am going Eagles -3 .5 (-110) because while I know the Lions are no good and I know folks are keying on Miles Sanders being out, but they don’t really run the ball.
Titans @ Colts - Is there something you would like to do less than try and tackle Derrick Henry? I mean, good lord. That was quite the performance last week and this smells like the classic let down. Colts won a game I didn’t think they would win, but to me, they did it with smoke and mirrors. They had 95 yards of pass interferences to help them and without that I think they were riding the struggle bus, but that weather was ATROCIOUS so I am not sure there is a ton to take away. I am going to PASS, but I am leaning Colts.
Bengals @ Jets - The last 3 weeks my model has had the Bengals rated as the 9th, 7th and now 5th best team in the NFL. They should SMASH the Jets. If this line was under 10, I would jump on it with both feet. The reason I am not all over this is that the Jets S-U-C-K SUCK SUCK SUCK. The Bengals likely will keep things vanilla and might be looking past this team. On the other side the Jets just traded for the corpse of Joe Flacco and might actually do their best Dan Campbell YOLO impression and make this a game. PASS.
Rams @ Texans - I feel badly for the 4th seen in the NFC. As we sit here today, there is a clear gap between the top 5 NFC teams and the rest and it looks like the 5th team is going to be either Rams or Cards…..being the team that wins its division and has to play one of those two? WOOOOOOF. The Texans are bad, but if Tyrod is back, they are much more dangerous. Do not forget how great he was playing before he was hurt. PASS
Patriots @ Chargers - I know you this is going to be a pick many people but I really like that my model is on the Pats. That is where I was leaning as well. I wish I could give you a bunch of sentences why, but I really don’t have much other than I like this spot and their run game. I was all ready to take Pats +6 but the line has been bet down to +4.5 so not it is a PASS for me.
Jaguars @ Seahawks - When I look at this game I wonder if I will watch 5 minutes of it other than to do my analysis for gambling purposes. I think showing this to prisoners might violate the Geneva Convention……That said, one of these teams is well coached by a former college national championship coach and the other is the Jaguars. I am betting against the Jags Sea -3.
Washington @ Broncos - Last week Washington got to the redzone 4 times in the 2nd half and they came away with a grand total of 3 points. That is play calling and execution. As Mike Lombardi points out all the time, being a 20-20 team will help you roll up stats but won’t win you games. I was high on the Broncos coming into the season, but they just haven’t held up and my model has had their ranking go from 4 to 11 to 14 to 22 to 21 that last bunch of weeks, I know this is Capt Obvious but that is NOT A good trend. I think they win this game but not enough to put it on this list. PASS
Bucs @ Saints - My model LOVES the Saints. It believes this game should have them favored by 1pt instead of getting 5. I have gone back and rewatched the MNF game from this past week and what really worries me is their lack of weapons outside of Kamara. The Bucs are the Bucs. When they are right, they are a freight train rolling down hill. My model’s love is scaring me off so I will PASS.
Cowboys @ Vikings (SNF) - Okay - time to peek behind the scenes - I actually start this note on Tuesday each week and write as much as I can given normal life happenings and then I make updates throughout the week …..This is what I wrote on Tuesday → “If you haven’t figured this out yet from my twitter, I will be clear here - I am a Dallas Cowboys fan. Have been my entire life. The big thing with this is that I consume more information (good AND bad) about this team than I do any other team. I am taking Vikings +3 for a few reasons. 1) I am not sure if Dak is going to play and if he doesn’t the Vikings will be favored. 2) I am not sure Dak is going to be healthy if he does play. 3) Even if Dak plays, I expect the Vikings to be a really tough prospect for the Boys, it’s just a bad matchup for the Dallas D and middle of Dallas O-line. I think someone will be driving at the end of this game to try and win it and while my heart will be praying it is a healthy Dak and the Cowboys win, my feeling is that it will be tight either way and I want the points and will be using Vikings in my ML parlays and teasers.” - Well looks like the betting market thinks Dak won’t play so PASS.
Parlays and Teasers:
(Loss) 6.5 pt teasers, 1u @ +135 - Arizona pk / Philly +33 / Minnesota +8
(Loss) 0.5u parlay @ +304 - Ari -270 / Cle -165 / Den -165 / KC -469
0.5u Parlay @ +698 - NO +185 / NE +180
0.25 Long shot parlay @ +2144 - Cle -195 / Den -165 / Phi -185 / KC -469 / Ind -140 / Car +145 / Cin -565
1u parlay @ +355 - Cle -195 / Phi -185 / Car +3
1u 7pt teaser @ +200 - Cle +3.5 / KC -3 / Car +10 / Cin -3.5
Best of luck in all your action!
Unless otherwise noted, these are using the units the model suggests. If they are spread bets they are “to risk” bets. If they are ML bets they are “to win” bets.