Some interesting trends and nuggets for your enjoyment this week:
No teams on the bye this week
Favorites1 are 68-38 SU and 52-49-5 ATS
Home teams2 are 57-48 SU and 51-48-5 ATS
Unders are 66-41-1 and 18-7 for primetime games
There are no longer any undefeated teams ATS while the Panthers are the teams left winless vs the spread (0-5-1).
Joe Osborne has a fun tweet about teams with big quarter and half betting records this season
Some Week 7 / Week 8 specific notes
As we head toward the trade deadline this felt fun to point out, AJ Brown has more receiving yards than all of the Titans WR’s combined
Per Ian Rapoport, if the Ravens beat the Cardinals this weekend their Guard Kevin Zeitler will have beaten every NFL team in his career. That makes him the 17th person since 1991 to achieve this.
Per Ben Fawkes, in Week 7, all 8 games with a ticket count over 70% at Draft Kings, the other side won ATS
Per Gilles Gallant, plus-money INTs are now 53-39 +25.9u on the season, and yes bets on INTs in general are 117-92-1 so far as well
Per Joe Osborne, Justin Herbert’s QB stats are starkly different in the 1st half vs 2nd half of games
I highly recommend checking out Ben Baldwin’s analysis each week
The games:
These are the games that would have qualified for 0.5u bets IF I was keeping them in:
Bills -9 (Loss)
Titans +2.5
TNF Pick Recap - Well we mostly sat out of the game last night and I am glad we did. We are still alive on the teaser.
Gamblers Paradise
I know I am always talking about how much fun it is to come to the Gamblers Paradise Discord and how it is a great place to come hang out and talk about sports and gambling and that is true, but there are also some other unique aspects given that I am posting winner there each week.
That is right, last week my college football picks went 8-3-1 and I hit a nice 12-1 parlay for $700!
The best part of the parlay was that it was a FREE giveaway where I gave one person in the Discord HALF MY WINNINGS! Can you afford to miss out?
Other Plays
I finally was profitable with these picks last two weeks so that means it is time to go ALL IN!!!!! Just kidding! These picks have a way to go to be profitable so make sure you do what is right for you….
Totals, Parlays, Teasers, and Props:
Spread / ML - My model has taken plenty of action for me so going to pass here. I would have taken the Packers’ ML, but a 2u play on the spread is enough for me.
Totals - unfortunately some of the ones I was targeting have moved a bit so going to tease those.
0.5u Cowboys / LAR over 45.5 (-110)
0.5u Saints / Colts over 43 (-115)
0.25u Houston Texans under 22.5 team total (+110)
Teasers
Pending - 0.5u on a 7pt teaser Bills -2.5 / Packers +8 / Steelers +9.5 (+120)
1u on a 7pt teaser Colts +8 / Steelers +9.5 / Panthers +10.5 (+120)
0.5u on a 6pt teasers Broncos +13.5 / Commanders +13 (-110)
0.5u on a 7pt teaser NO-IND o36 / CHI-LAC o39.5 / HOU-CAR o36.5 (+120)
Parlays
1u Ravens -450 / Chiefs -350 / Cowboys -280 (+113)
1u Packers +110 / Cowboys -285 (+184)
0.25u on Colts +100 / Green Bay +110 / Panthers +155 (+971)
Props (all 0.25u)
Breece Hall over 68.5 rushing yards (-130)
Jordan Love over 1.5 TD passes (+130)
Justin Herbert under 264.5 passing yards (-115)
CJ Stroud over 0.5 INTs (+124)
Patrick Mahomes over 0.5 INTs (+102)
Jared Godff over 0.5 INTs (+141)
Note with the “other” section, I use multiple books to bet so as I construct these the odds/spreads can be different between the books and between bets.
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
There were 2 pick-ems
Does not count the 3 neutral site games