Honda Classic - Recap
Oh man, what a wild week, and while I wish we did better a profit is always okay in my book. Our guys started really great Thursday morning, the guys who played Thursday afternoon were atrocious. We saw something similar Friday where the guys out earlier played well and the guys later in the afternoon had a terrible day, BUT thankfully we only saw one T20 bet go down with the cut and we were able to cash a number of our head-to-head matchups!
Saturday saw many of our guys struggle and I did not have a ton of hope going into Sunday. Then on Sunday, we got good round after good round after good round from our guys to battle back into T20 contention.
Obviously, not only did we not get the outright winner, but none of our winner bets came anywhere close - which sucks. I love Sunday winner sweat and we didn't get one. On the T20 front, we got 2-4 but we get a small 0.4u profit which I am more than happy to take because when I went to bed Saturday night I thought we were going 0-6.
I want to focus on the Head-to-Head’s for a moment. Going into this week we were 22-21 for -5.3u on the season. Hardly earth-shattering, but certainly not good. This week we went 5-2 for 2.1u of profit.
Arnold Palmer Invitational
The PGA Tour continues in Florida with a trip to the Orlando suburb of Bay Hill, and a strong field to contest this tournament (23 of the top 25 and 44 of top 50 in the OWGR) and a well-rested one given the fact many skipped last week’s Honda Classic. This course plays to a par of 72 across ~7,460 yards.
While this is viewed as a “full field” event, it actually has 120 players so that is something to keep in mind if you are looking at make/miss the cut bets as fewer players will be dropped than normal.
The 2022 edition saw Scottie Scheffler shoot 5 under par to back up his Phoenix Open win and beat Tyrell Hatton, Billy Horschel, and Viktor Hovland by 1 stroke. Can he do it again this year?!? The 2021 edition was won by Bryson DeCahmbeau (-11) who topped Lee Westwood by 1 stroke and 2020 saw Tyrrell Hatton (-4) beat marc Leishman by 1 stroke.
The event 72-hole stroke record was shot by the late Payne Stewart (264) in 1987, the to-par record is held by Buddy Allin’s -23 in 1973, and the record for wins in this event is Tiger Woods who won this event a stunning 8 times1, most recently in 2013.
Let’s get to this week’s card (10.9u2 of risk):
Outright3:
0.75u on Scottie Scheffler +1000
0.5u on Patrick Cantlay +2200
0.25u on Keith Mitchell +5000
0.25u on Keegan Bradley +7500
T20
1.05u on Patrick Cantlay -105
0.5u on Keith Mitchell +180
0.5u on Keegan Bradley +240
0.25u on Min Woo Lee +375
0.25u on Adrian Meronk +400
0.25u on Byeong-Hun An +6004
Matchups
1.53u on Luke List over Ryan Fox -153
1.4u on Tyrrell Hatton over Jordan Speith -140
1.33u on Adrian Meronk over Christiaan Bezuidenhout -133
0.72u on Rickie Fowler over Adam Scott -144
0.69u on Matthew Fitzpatrick over Shane Lowry -138
0.67u on Patrick Cantlay over Justin Thomas -134
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds. I bet them as I write this so they are live within the 30 min or so of publication.
Daily Fantasy
Okay, I am going to take a really small shot here (about $20-$25 worth of action):
Homa 9,700
Cantlay 9,100
Hatton 8,300
Mitchell 8,000
Brandley 7,600
Meronk 7,200
Good luck with all your action!
When I say this is stunning, much of what Tiger has accomplished is, but no one else has won this tournament even 3 times!
Edit note, this was originally published showing 10.8u and was updated t0 10.9u
Something I get asked often is about First Round Leader (FRL) bets and do I make them? The answer is yes! As I have said many times in these newsletters, I often take the guys that I have outright action on and bet them as FRL as well for VERY small amounts (usually under $10). That said, I do not give those as official picks as my calculations are not specific to this type of bet and there is an additional risk as you are open to dead heat rules costing you significant amounts of your winnings.
Sorry, edit note, forgot to put the odds here