St Jude Championship - Recap
Cantlay missed that putt on 18 by a quarter of an inch and that is how fine the margins can be. Then you think about Glover’s long putts on 13 and 14 and you realize we were ohhhhh so close to cashing 18u of profit in one ticket and having over 14u of profit for the week. Oh well. We move to 2-1 in playoffs this year1.
Instead, we walk away with a disappointing 4.4u loss. I am as frustrated as anyone to lose this week, but I would happily take a guy in a playoff every single week if I could and then see where the chips fall.
Really not a ton to say about the rest of the card. I missed badly on the T10 picks, especially with Tom Kim struggling so badly during the weekend. Thankfully Jaeger was able to back door a Top 20 for us to help a little bit.
BMW Championship
The PGA Tour travels from Memphis to Olympian Fields, Illinois for the 2nd leg of the FedEx Playoffs. This tournament is restricted to just the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup Standings. This event has no cut and only the top 30 in the standings after this tournament will move on to the Tour Championship2.
This year’s BMW Championship is hosted by the historic Olympia Fields Country Club North Course (the 99th-best golf course in the country) which plays to a par of 70 across ~7,450 yards. This course is a VERY stern challenge for these golfers and one only has to look at the list of tournaments hosted here, which include 2 PGA Championships, 2 US Opens, a US Am, and the 2020 BMW Championship, to understand this is a big boy golf course.
The 2022 BMW saw Patrick Cantlay (20-1 odds) capture his 8th and most recent PGA Tour title when he shot -14 to beat Scott Stallings (125-1) by 1 stroke at Wilmington Country Club. The 2021 edition saw Patrick Cantlay (25-1 odds) shoot -27 to capture the first of his back-to-back BMW titles when he topped Bryson Dechambeau (16-1) in a playoff at Caves Valley Golf Club, and 2020 saw John Rahm (-4) win as the second favorite (9-1) when he topped tournament favorite Dustin Johnson (8-1) in a playoff at this year’s course.
While I was not able to find the winner at the BMW last year we did have a reasonably nice week with a 4.5u profit which was a 41.3% ROI.
While this is a big tournament there is only so much value in the T10 and T20 slots given that it is a small field so I was going to try to get 10u of risk out here but ended up with a little less (9.1u risked) so I am going to use 1.25u of my bankroll on something else….:
Outright3:
2u Rory McIlroy +700
1u on Viktor Hovland +1600
0.5u on Tyrrell Hatton +3000
0.25u on Benny An +6000
0.25u on Sahith Theegala +11000
T10:
0.675u on Rory McIlroy -135
0.25u on Viktor Hovland +130
0.25u on Tyrrell Hatton +200
0.25u on Sahith Theegala +450
T20
1.5u on Tyrrell Hatton -150
0.7u on Russell Henley -140
0.7u on Sungjae Im -140
0.25u on Si Woo Kim +105
0.25u on Benny An +115
0.25u on Sahith Theegala +135
Matchups - Once again taking a pass here and will have some on Gamblers Paradise discord
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds. I bet them as I write this.
DP World Tour - ISPS Handa World Invitational
I am debating expanding coverage into DP World Tour going into the fall and next year where I take outright shots each week for about 2-3u, so let’s try for this week using 1.25u of our bankroll:
0.375u on Romain Langasque +2000
0.25u on Adrian Otaegui +2500
0.25u on Matthew Southgate +3000
0.25u on David Law +3300
0.125u on Paul Waring +6500
Note - I am all for transparency so as always so these will be tracked and added to my reporting next week. Note that I am useing smaller than normal unit sizes and something I have been toying with doing is allowing myself to deviate from the 0.25, 0.5, 1u, standards more frequenly so my reporting has been adjusted to show results by bet type rather than bet amount. I still have the amounts in the background and that can be re-produced whenever requested.
Daily Fantasy
Given the short field this week and next week I am going to take passes on DFS.
Good luck with all your action!
We won in playoffs with Hovland at the Memorial and Bhatia at the Barracuda.
Remember that the points are quadrupled.
My calcs are showing value at Scottie (anything over +700), Rory (+700) and Cantlay (+1200). I am going to try to get action on all 3 of these using parlays, but if you wanted to focus on one, I would go on Rory so that is why he is my 2u play.