I will have a longer post in the coming days (possibly weeks) as to what to expect from the substack but wanted to get this out now so we can attack some value!
Where things stand with golf
Soooooo here is where things stand with golf this season and all time:
That is all the official picks since I have started this spot and where we will pick up from…… HOWEVER, if you had been paying attention to the Gamblers Paradise Discord you would have won another 10.56u of profit two weeks ago when we CRUSHED the Waste Management Open by nailing Scottie to win 14-1 amongst a host of other bets. I was clear when I posted those picks they were unofficial for better or for worse so they will just be filler in the pockets of those who participated.
The Honda Classic
The PGA Tour has wrapped up its West Coast swing and now heads to the South East for the Florida swing! The first stop will be the very tough PGA National Resort and Spa in Palm Beach Gardens Florida1, a course that plays to a par 70 across ~7,125 yards.
When I say this course if though, the Twitter Account PGASplits101, laid out a bunch of great facts, and here are some of the notable ones:
Toughest non-major course at +1.53
-15 water holes - 8 holes with approach hazards; most water balls past 3 years
Highest double-bogey or worse % on Tour
"Bear Trap" holes 15-17 play at +0.21
The 2022 edition saw Sepp Straka become the first Austrian to win on the PGA tour when he shot -10 to beat Shane Lowryby 1 stroke. The 2021 edition saw Matt Jones (-12) beat Brandon Hagy by 5 strokes and 2020 saw Sungjae Im (-6) beat Mackenzie Hughes by 1 stroke.
The event 72-hole record is -24 (264) which was shot by Justin Leonard in 2003. The record for wins in this event is Padraig Harrington, Mark Calcavecchia, Johnny Miller, and Jack Nicklaus who each won 2 times.
With so many long shots winning recently in this event and very few big names, I am going to look for some home run shots. Let’s get to this week’s card (about 9u of risk):
Outright (0.25u on each):
Jhonattan Vegas 40-1
Adrian Meronk 45-1
Stephan Jaeger 55-1
Will Gordon 70-1
Brandon Wu 100-1
T20
0.5u on Jhonattan Vegas +165
0.5 u on Stephan Jaeger +220
0.5u Will Gordon +285
0.25u on Joseph Bramlett +260
0.25u on Brandon Wu +325
0.25u on Sam Stevens +400
Matchups
1.34u on Aaron Baddeley over Ryan Moore -134
1.32u on Will Gordon over Russell Knox -132
0.785u on Sungjae Im over Shane Lowry -157
0.69u on Brandon Wu over Erik Van Rooyan -138
0.6u on Stephan JAeger over Christrian Bezuidenhout -120
0.375u on Ben Griffin over Ben Taylor -150
0.3175u on Cam Davis over Harris English
As always, I am using BetOnline to pull these odds.
Daily Fantasy
Alright, this will be back next week.
Good luck with all your action!
If you happen to be in the area, I HIGHLY recommend going to Rocco’s Tacos which is about 5 minutes from the course