Recap - Travelers Championship
Well, I will keep it brief this week. That was quite the tournament and while Cantlay came back to contend a bit on Sunday, he was never really in it and so we basically break even this week
The nice thing is we did see our head to head matchups finallllllly start performing like they had been with a 5-0-2 record!
Rocket Mortgage Classic
The PGA Tour leaves the east coast and heads to the Midwest with a trip to Detroit Golf Club (a great fly over from last year). This Donald Ross-designed course plays to a par 72 over a distance of close to 7,400 yards. While this is a long-ish course it plays rather easy.
The 2022 edition saw Tony Finau, the second favorite, at 14-1 odds, capture his 2nd win in a row when he shot -26 to cruise to victory over Patrick Cantlay (10-11), Taylor Pendrith (60-1), and Cam Young (18-1) by 5 strokes. The 2021 edition saw Cameron Davis (100-1 odds) capture his first and only PGA Tour title when shot -18 and beat Troy Merritt (80-1) and Joaquin Niemann (20-1) in a playoff, and 2020 saw Bryson DeChambeau (-23) win as a 6-1 favorite when he rolled to a 3 stoke victory over Matt Wolff (100-1). The event’s 72-hole-to-par record is -26 (262) shot by Tony Finau last year. Per Ron Klos, (who does EXCELLENT work), there have been 2 favorites who have won and 2 long shots in the 4 editions of this tournament so something to keep in mind.
One interesting thing to note is that this event was moved up in the golf calendar by about a month this year so it will be interesting to see how that affects the course which should play super soft given all the storms and rain they have had. We will see the deepest field this tournament has ever had with 14 of the top 40 and 38 of the top 100 in the world golf rankings scheduled to take part.
For context, last year we did not hit the outright, but we were still able to capture a 4.2u profit (56% ROI), primarily driven by a very strong T20 showing2.
NOTE: this is the same exact set of plays that was sent to those who financial support this Substack exactly 12 hours ago.
I am going with 9.25u of risk this week:
Outright3:
0.75u on Rickie Fowler 14-1
0.5u on Max Homa 18-1
0.25u on JJ Spaun 60-1
0.25u on Benny An 60-1
0.25u on Beau Hossler 70-1
T10 (0.25u on each):
Rickie Fowler +180
Ludvig Aberg +500
Austin Eckroat +600
T20:
1.1u on Rickie Fowler -110
0.5u on Max Homa +115
0.5u on JJ Spaun +165
0.5u on Benny An +210
0.25u on Austin Eckroat +250
0.25u on Kevin Yu +360
0.25u on Taylor Pendrith +375
Matchups
0.75u on JJ Spaun over Tom Hoge -150
0.75u on Benny An over Justin Suh -150
0.69u on Sepp Straka over Nicolai Hojgaard -139
0.66u on Austin Eckroat over Brendon Todd -132
0.3175u on Rickie Fowler over Justin Thomas -127
As always, I am using BetOnline, DraftKings, and Bovada to pull these odds.
Gamblers Paradise Discord
I know I talk about joining the Gamblers Paradise discord every week, but if you want to be there with us watching the Belmont Stakes this week, getting picks from others on MLB and UFC, and hanging out with a great group!
Daily Fantasy
For those unfamiliar with Daily Fantasy, this is a game you can play (I use Draft Kings) where they give you a budget and use allocate that budget to golfers and use their scoring criteria to try and win money. The dollar values you see below are the “salaries” for each golfer I select. You can mirror what I do, do your own thing, or do some combo and as always I am just showing what I am doing, and is good for me.
Let’s take a pass this week:
Good luck with all your action!
Cantlay was obviously the favorite
This is going to be a new section I add each week so folks can see how we did last year.
For my parlays this week, I am going to try to add Finua, Tom Kim and Hideki to my dance card, each of between 0.25u and 0.5u.