Recap - Travelers Championship
Well, I will keep it brief this week. That was quite the tournament and while Cantlay came back to contend a bit on Sunday, he was never really in it and so we basically break even this week
The nice thing is we did see our head to head matchups finallllllly start performing like they had been with a 5-0-2 record!
Rocket Mortgage Classic
The PGA Tour leaves the east coast and heads to the Midwest with a trip to Detroit Golf Club (a great fly over from last year). This Donald Ross-designed course plays to a par 72 over a distance of close to 7,400 yards. While this is a long-ish course it plays rather easy.
The 2022 edition saw Tony Finau, the second favorite, at 14-1 odds, capture his 2nd win in a row when he shot -26 to cruise to victory over Patrick Cantlay (10-11), Taylor Pendrith (60-1), and Cam Young (18-1) by 5 strokes. The 2021 edition saw Cameron Davis (100-1 odds) capture his first and only PGA Tour title when shot -18 and beat Troy Merritt (80-1) and Joaquin Niemann (20-1) in a playoff, and 2020 saw Bryson DeChambeau (-23) win as a 6-1 favorite when he rolled to a 3 stoke victory over Matt Wolff (100-1). The event’s 72-hole-to-par record is -26 (262) shot by Tony Finau last year. Per Ron Klos, (who does EXCELLENT work), there have been 2 favorites who have won and 2 long shots in the 4 editions of this tournament so something to keep in mind.
One interesting thing to note is that this event was moved up in the golf calendar by about a month this year so it will be interesting to see how that affects the course which should play super soft given all the storms and rain they have had. We will see the deepest field this tournament has ever had with 14 of the top 40 and 38 of the top 100 in the world golf rankings scheduled to take part.
For context, last year we did not hit the outright, but we were still able to capture a 4.2u profit (56% ROI), primarily driven by a very strong T20 showing2.
I am going with 9.25u of risk this week:
Outright3:
0.75u on Rickie Fowler 14-1
0.5u on Max Homa 18-1
0.25u on JJ Spaun 60-1
0.25u on Benny An 60-1
0.25u on Beau Hossler 70-1
NOTE: This week I am doing something for the subscribers who provide financial support for this substack. They are getting the FULL card right now (7:30 pm ET) 12 hours ahead of those who get it free so this whole newsletter, without the paywall, will be re-published at 7:30 am ET tomorrow morning.
I know this is something folks will not like, but I need to find a way to give back to those who support this space and this is the best way to do it. I promise to never do this for a major, but I might do it from time for time for the smaller events.
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