Are you having fun yet?
Since the start of the 2022-2023 wrap-around calendar, we have had 6 tour events and I have picked the winner in 4 of them:
Shriners Children's Open - Tom Kim 25-1
CJ Cup in SC - Rory McIlory 7-1
World Wide Technology Championship - Russell Henley 50-1
Cadence Bank Houston Open - Tony Finau 20-1
As you will see in the performance report below, we have already had 24 units of profit and are maintaining a 38% ROI. I do not profess to be the best golf bettor in the world nor am I a professional gambler, but you will be hard-pressed to find someone who is doing a better job on golf than I am.
I do not charge for this substack, but it does take significant time and effort so I appreciate a couple of people who have reached out to provide tips!! Honestly, it is so nice to feel appreciated so I wanted to publicly thank those people.
If you want to also send a tip, but are not sure how, you can always just DM me on Twitter or Discord, you can hit the or just reply to this email!! I am happy to take contributions, no matter how big or small!!
Cadence Bank Houston Open - Recap
I am going to keep this brief but how about Top Gun Tony!!!! Another week and another relatively easy winner! I really can’t get over having 4 outrights in 6 tournaments. I am honestly just so proud. We need to get the boat righted on T10, T20, and head-to-head’s but to me, that is more about the variance associated with these events with shallower fields.
Those who were with me last year when I hit 65-1, 10-1, and 50-1 in three straight weeks, as part of an 8 straight week profit streak, likely know what I am about to say, but gambling is not easy and there are always ebbs and flows to it. It is highly unlikely that I keep hitting outright winners at a 66% rate so while I will do my best to keep the ball rolling like this, do not be shocked if we have some regression.
Programming Note
This is the final full-field golf tournament of the fall calendar as the PGA Tour will head to Bermuda next week for Tiger’s Hero World Challenge and then Naples for a team event called the QBE Shootout.
Neither of these presents the same opportunity to bet (Tiger’s tourney only has 20 golfers) so I won’t have posts for these. That said, any action I do have will be posted on the Gamblers Paradise Discord, so please join up and come check that out.
After these events, the PGA Tour takes a break until the first week of January when they kick off the year with the Tournament of Champions in Hawaii so I will be back in full swing once we get to 2023.
See you all then!
RSM Classic
The PGA Tour stays in the South but moves east to the Atlantic Ocean coast to visit Sea Island Golf Club in Saint Simons Island, Georgia. This tournament is played across this country club’s two 18-hole courses with the Seaside Course playing to a par of 70 across 7,000 yards and the Plantation course playing to a par of 72 across 7,160 yards.
This event, and its predecessor the McGladrey Classic, have been hosted at this location every year since its inception in 2010. While the 2021 edition was won by Talor Gooch with a score of -22 (3 strokes back in 2nd was Mackenzie Hughes), the 3 before that were all won in playoffs by Robert Streb (over Kisner), Tyler Duncan (over Webb Simpson) and Charles Howell III (over Patrick Rodgers).
I honestly do not see a TON of value this week so I am not going to push it just because things have been hot and this is the last full card for a while1. Let’s get to this week’s card (about 6.5u of risk):
Outright:
0.5u on Brian Harman +2200
T10 (0.25u on each):
Keith Mitchell +400
Andrew Putnam +530
T20
1.3u on Tony Finau -130 (canceled with his pre tournament withdrawal)
1u on Brian Harman +135
0.25u on Lee Hodges +360
Matchups
2.25u on Tony Finau over Seamus Power -225 (canceled with his pre tournament withdrawal)
0.695u on Matt Kuchar over Kevin Kisner -139
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds. I bet them as I write this so they are live within the 30 min or so of publication.
Daily Fantasy
These will be back once we get to the Hawaiian swing.
Good luck with all your action!
This is a mistake inexperienced bettors make all the time! To be successful long-term in gambling you have to take what the market gives you but not force it just for fun. Sometimes that is the universe (and bookmakers) telling you to step back for the week.