My Golf Process
Given I have not covered this topic recently and I know we have many new folks on the Substack so I thought it would be a great thing to lead off this week’s newsletter with the process I follow that has led to over 83 units of profit in under a year.
Gambling is both an art and a science and as much as I love my models, those of you who have been with me for a while know that, I do not always strictly stick to my models and use my views (i.e., judgmental overlay) to guide my picks in golf.
Each week I run my calculations and I use that to identify what value is on the board. Most weeks I might see a maximum of 6 to 8 golfers that have outright value, but as you have seen I normally dedicate about 1u of risk to the outrights so I sift through those to identify those I personally like. Then, I also use that information, as well as the calcs for T10 and T20 to build my betting card for the week.
For golf, you have likely seen my rule of thumb for risk is as follows:
7.5-10 units of risk for normal golf tournaments (e.g., Valspar, Valero, fall calendar)
10-12.5 for designated events (e.g., Bay Hill, RBC Heritage) and
12.5-15 for the Majors
The reason I have staggered them like this is that the bigger and deeper the field I am usually able to find value and often books have more options of things to bet on.
Then each week for a normal regular tournament, I normally dedicate (obviously these numbers go up the more I am risking):
1-1.5u for outright
< 1u for T10
2-3.5u for T20
Remainder for H2H’s, Make/Miss cuts, etc.
The above is just a general guideline that I personally have come up with and thus far it has worked well, but clearly, I adjust by the week and by personal feel. For example, I was pretty clear last week that I was intentionally trying to stay close to 8 units of risk because of the fact that it was the week before a big major so things could get wonky.
When I bet I am betting completely prepared for a total loss. Yes, I LOVE to win and hope to win, but expectations should always be a loss and if you are uncomfortable with a bet, you should not make it. While everything is tracked and reported, you should also know, I do not look at anything between a 5u profit or loss as anything notable.
If you have any questions, I am more than happy to answer them. You can just reply to this email or DM me on Twitter or Discord.
Gamblers Paradise Discord
Once again, I highly recommend going to this discord as we have some lively discussions and you can even get some of my picks early (like when I sent out Patrick Cantlay bets a few hours ago) or see when I post about tee times! Seriously, come join the community.
Recap - Valero Texas Open
End of round 1: I am writing this around 11am ET on Friday as that is when I have time and most of these guys are wrapping up their rounds. It is hard to be unhappy with where we stand. We have several guys in striking position and our big T20 bet just needs not to have a nightmare tomorrow for us to have a nice shot at all of our guys making the weekend. We also have a couple of matchups that we might be able to cash at the end of R2. The wind is supposed to blow today so we could see some scores slide backward.
End of round 2: Well things are not looking good for the outright bets but we have already cashed 3 of the matchups and came oh so close to cashing all 4. Hopefully, Coody falls off and we can take that one down too. SiWoo did end up with a nightmare but was able to make the cut. Let’s hope he bounces back.
End of round 3: Well that sucked. We have an ok shot at a profit but not a great one and Kirk had a super weird round. He is in striking distance but will need some magic to get to a win. Coody started off +4 but birdied 6 times to get back on track and Bhatia did us no favors so that last match-up is looking all but dead. We might get away with a positive week with our T20’s.
Final wrapup1 - Never a doubt!!! HAHAHA I will never have a problem with a winning week and especially sweeping our match-ups (thank you Akshay Bhattia and his unreal comeback including going birdie-birdie to finish to win his match-up). We have had a rough go of outrights and Kirk gave us a little fun when he went 3 straight birdies to close the gap to 2 strokes but immediately pissed down his leg on 9, 10, and 11. That said, the only really big thing I regret is my Si Woo Kim picks. The numbers were close, but on the wrong side and I was debating between him and Hideki as I thought one or both of them would be up there and I got scared off my Hideki’s WD because of his neck. Oh well.
This is a new chart I have been working on that I will now be publishing every month-end that shows how my picks have performed each month (blue line) and cumulatively to date (orange line). What this I think shows really nicely is that we grind small profits week to week, but rely on hitting a few outright bets to really boost profits.
The Masters
After a week off for the majority of the biggest golfers in the world, the golf world will head down Magnolia Lane to Augusta National for “a tradition unlike any other…..the Masters”!!! Augusta National Golf Club plays to a par 72 across 7,545 yards, which includes a newly redesigned/lengthened 13th hole.
For those who are unfamiliar, The Masters is the first of the 4 majors on the golfing calendar and its history stretches back to the late great Bobby Jones, who founded Augusta National in 1932. While some other courses and tournaments are older in the US, there is something about the Masters week that feels so special.
Three things we need to keep in mind while dialing up our Masters’ bets this week:
Given the decision to allow qualifying LIV Tour members2 to play in the majors, this will be our first time this year seeing how the breakaway tour players stack up against their former colleagues. It is interesting to note that while many of the best PGA Tour players take off the week prior to the Masters, all of the LIV guys played last week in Orlando (and Brooks won) as LIV schedules most of their events against lesser PGA Tour events like last week's Valero Texas Open.
The Masters has the smallest field of any of the majors with only 88 players competing this week3. As such, the Masters’ cutline is top 50 and ties (rather than the normal top 65 and ties) so this is something you should keep in mind as you watch the leaderboard over the first 2 days.
Only Jack Nicklaus won the Masters after winning the Valero the prior week (he actually did it twice), so you can count me out on Corey Conners.
The 86th playing of the Masters saw Scottie Scheffler continue his blazing hot start to the 2022 calendar year when he shot -10 and beat Rory McIlroy by 3 strokes to capture his first major championship. The 2021 edition saw Hideki Matsuyama (-10) capture his first major title when he topped Willy Z by 1 stroke, and 2020 (which was played in November due to the COVID-19 pandemic) saw Dustin Johnson (-20) capture his 2nd major title when he beat Sungjae Im and Cam Smith by 5 strokes.
The event’s 72-hole record is -20 (268) was shot by Dustin Johnson in late 20204. Jack Nicklaus holds the record for most Masters' wins with 6, but Tiger is only 1 behind with 5 and we expect that he will do his best to close that gap this week. Scottie Scheffler will try to become only the 4th man to ever defend his title at Augusta5 and if he can do it, I wonder how he will top the amazing menu he put together for the champions' dinner this year6.
Because this is a Major the menu of bets that we have available to us is a bit bigger than normal and, as I described above, I tend to extend my bankroll a bit further than normal. If you are NOT comfortable with extra risk, please DO NOT bet as much as I am.
I think we are going to see the absolute cream rise to the top, especially those guys who are ball strikers so do not be shocked that many of these guys are shorter odds7.
NOTE: This is a LOT of risk and I am betting this absolutely prepared for this to be a total loss so make sure you bet within your means.
Okay, I have gone on long enough, let’s get to this week’s card (about 14.1u of risk):
Outright :
1u Scottie Scheffler +750
1u on Patrick Cantlay +2000
0.5u on Cam Young +5000 (placed July 19)8
0.5u on Jason Day +3000
0.25u on Hideki Matsuyama +5000
T10 (0.25u on each):
Patrick Cantlay +140
Viktor Hovland +280
Hideki Matsuyama +330
T209:
1.25u on Patrick Cantlay -125
0.55u on Jason Day -110
0.5u on Cam Young +100
0.5u on Hideki Matsuyama +130
0.25u on Viktor Hovland +110
0.25u on Joaquinn Niemann +180
0.25u on Mito Pereira +220
Cut bets
1u on Tiger to Make the Cut -200
0.25u on Bryson DeChambaeu to Miss the Cut +120
0.25u on Min Woo Lee to Miss the Cut +240
Matchups
1.65u on Viktor Hovland over Brook Koepka -165
0.7u on Patrick Cantlay over Justin Thomas -140
0.645u on Talor Gooch over Alex Noren -129
0.6u on Dustin Johnson over Cameron Smith -120
0.515u on Tiger Woods over Sergio Garcia -10310
0.3225u on Tony Finau over Collin Morikawa -129
0.3175u on Cameron Young over Max Homa -127
0.3175u on Russell Henley over Brian Harman -127
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds.
Daily Fantasy
For those unfamiliar with Daily Fantasy, this is a game you can play (I use Draft Kings) where they give you a budget and use allocate that budget to golfers and use their scoring criteria to try and win money. The dollar values you see below are the “salaries” for each golfer I select. You can mirror what I do, do your own thing, or do some combo and as always I am just showing what I am doing, and is good for me.
Had a decent return last week with a small profit. Going with about 0.25u worth of risk:
Cantlay 9,500
Finau 8,900
Cam Young 8,600
Hideki 8,400
Niemann 7,800
Power 6,800
Good luck with all your action!
As you will see on the report, the date is March 31, but that is just so the March-to-date section shows all of the March bets. It was a down month where we lost just under 1u. Obviously, that is not good enough for me but it really was a grind with basically every tournament coming down to the final holes for us. Let’s hope April treats us better and is a lot less sweaty.
I think this was absolutely the correct decision. The PGA Tour does not run The Masters, US Open, or Open Championship and each has very specific qualifying criteria, as much as I do not like what LIV is doing if guys qualify then they should be able to play.
The 89th person who should be there is Aaron Wise. If you have not seen, he withdrew this week to focus on his mental health. I as someone who believes that therapy is absolutely something everyone should go to, I wish him all the best and can’t wait to bet on him when he comes back!
The record for an April tournament is -18 (270) shot by Tiger Woods in 1997 and Jordan Spieth in 2015
Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo, and Tiger Woods
For those who are unfamiliar with this tradition which started in 1952, prior to the Masters being played, all living former champions are invited to a dinner that is hosted by the current reigning champion (pic from last year’s dinner). That Champion gets to set the menu for dinner and traditionally that individual picks food that is local to the area they grew up, Scottie (who is from Texas) clearly did this year as did Hideki at his dinner last year.
Per Golfodds.com, over the past decade, winners of the Masters have held average pre-tournament odds of 27.1/1, with the longest being Matsuyama at 60/1
If you did not bet this back then DO NOT bet this now. The odds are far below what my calculations say they should be to bet
I know some folks like more action so the one I left off the list is Sungjae Im +110
Look, the Tiger Make the Cut bet is -200 and T40 is -350, and I LOVE Tiger so I am emotionally betting him.