My New Methodology
As you likely saw on my Twitter feed over the last two weeks you saw that I have been very honest with myself about how unacceptable my golf results have been so far this year. They have been, in a word, dreadful. With that, I spent a lot of time digging into what I felt I was doing wrong and came up with a new plan of attack. I know this is going to sound silly but the big change is that I was trying to pick winners and I have changed to finding golfers that are undervalued at their odds.
Last week I tried that new plan of attack and published my picks for folks to see on twitter:
Outrights
Matsuyama +2800
Power +5000
Munoz +6600
Bubba +7500
Hoge +10000
T10 / T20:
Now, I did not hit the winner but I came VERY close and it is hard to not be pleased with the results of 88.6% ROI!!! This is going to reset my records with v2.0 going forward.
I am hopeful that this week will be more of the same, but please make sure you are sticking to the units that work for you and are ONLY betting money you can afford to lose.
The PGA Championship
The 2nd major of the year this year is being played in Tulsa, OK. This course is a Par 70 that stretches 7,500 yards with elevation changes and deceptively large greens (more on this momentarily). This course has only 2 par 5’s and each one measures out over 630 yards!
The course has not hosted a tournament of this level since 2007 when Tiger won the Wannamaker here. Now, it should be noted that since then the course has gone through a restoration so it will play differently than it did 15 years ago.
When handicapping golf it is often important to understand what other courses are similar in construction and type of play1. When looking at this course it should be somewhat comparable to Shinnecock2 and Augusta National. Where this course will really be similar to Augusta is on and around the greens. Credit to Golf Digest for pointing out the architect of these greens is the same who designed those that are used of the Master.
The weather is expected to cool as we go into the weekend, but Friday should be around 90 and in that part of the country you can always get a freak short intense thunderstorm. I expect the course to be firm and fast and I wonder if wind becomes a factor.
One question with the PGA Championship is “Will it play like a US Open"?” While this course won’t give up super low scores, I do not think that is what the PGA wants and I expect that the rough will be manageable for these golfers, though their ability to scramble around these greens will be of extreme focus. I think winning score will be in the -7 to -10 range.
I am sure you have heard this stat but every time they have had this a major at this location the winner was leading or tied for the lead on Friday and only 2 have won who weren’t in the lead on Thursday. 39 of the last 40 major champs were in the top 50 of the world golf rankings, only exception was Phil last year.
This reads to me like a really deep field so I am going with some longer shots (and 1 outright hedge) let’s get to my picks:
Outright (0.25u on each):
1u on Scheffler, Rahm, McIlroy, Thomas, or Speith +205
0.25u on Hideki Matsuyama +22003
0.25u on Corey Conners +7500
0.25u on Cam Young +8000
0.25u on Sebastian Munoz +15000
0.25u on Alex Noren +15000
0.25u on Mito Periera +17500
T10 (0.25u on each):
Cam Young +650
Russell Henley +900
Alex Noren +1000
Si Woo Kim +1100
T20
1u on Hideki Matsuyama +130
0.5u on Cam Young +250
0.5u on Sebastian Munoz +400
0.5u on Alex Noren +425
0.25u on Si Woo Kim +450
0.25u on Aaron Wise +450
Make / Miss Cut
2u on Bryson DeChambeau to miss the cut +1104
1.5u on Tiger Woods to make the cut -150
0.25u on Will Zalatoris to miss the cut +255
0.25u on Viktor Hovland to miss the cut +275
Match ups
1.34 on Xander Schauffele over Viktor Hovland -134
1.29u on Hideki Matsuyama over Viktor Hovland -129
1.20 on Jordan Speith over Collin Morikawa -120
1.10 on Cam Smith over Collin Morikawa -110
0.845u on Hideki Matsuyama over Dustin Johnson -169
0.5u on Shane Lowry over Will Zalatoris +100
0.5u on Joaquin Niemann over Will Zalatoris +112
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds that are live at the time of publication.
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Daily Fantasy
Going to take a swag but going to personally keep my action a little light give how heavy I went on the card above
Cam Smith 9,700
Matsuyama 9,200
Lowry 8,700
Conners 8,000
Cam Young 7,600
Munoz 6,800
Good luck in all your action!
This is why you see me bring up “Pete Dye course” early and often in the PGA tour calendar
Thanks to Pam Maldonado for pointing these out!
You can likely get better odds but I try to make sure I am giving odds that are readily available or the worst I am seeing
He has not been healthy in a while and he just had surgery. I am honestly not even sure he will end up playing (which would result in your money being returned) and if he does play I am not sure he can make it 36 holes let alone score to make the cut.
his short game is a nightmare