BMW Championship - Recap
That was a hell of a tournament that provided a ton of drama down the stretch and it is always great when the best golfers in the world get together to play a tournament.
I will never be unhappy with a 41% ROI, which is exactly what we pulled in this week to bring us just shy of 64 units of profit total. We whiffed on the outrights picks though it was so nice to see Keegan Bradley at the very top to finish round one1 even if he fell apart.
Had really nice profits for T10, T20 and Head-to-Heads which is exactly as I always hope! They were quite the sweat, especially the head-to-heads but I did hit the longest T10 out there2!!
The TOUR Championship
The PGA Tour completes its 11 month wrap around calendar with the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. This tournament is restricted to just the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup Standings. This event has no cut and the winner of this tournament will win a LARGE paycheck and the title of Tour Champion, a 5 year PGA Tour exemption, and the Calamity Jane3.
East Lake plays to a par of 70 across ~7,350 yards. As I covered in my FedEx Cup Playoff explainer (bottom of this link) the majority of players will not be starting this week at even par, but rather an altered score given how they finished in the standings after last week’s BMW.
As we start to breakdown the odds this week it is important to remember that since the PGA Tour switched to this format there have been 3 FedEx Cups and the last two have been won by the guy starting at -10 and with only the 2019 edition being won by someone further down, Rory who started at -5.
This is a challenging course and I expect the winner to have shot in the neighborhood of -10 to -13 across the four rounds of play. The question will be the scoring once you take into account their adjusted scores. Obliviously with a more limited field, we have more limited options, so given the complications of this tournament, make sure you keep an eye specifically on the type of bets we are making this week.
Here are my tickets (about 11.5u of risk - all bets are showing the risk amount):
Outright (including adjusted strokes):
1u Scottie Scheffler +200
0.25u on Sungjae Im +2800
0.25u on Matthew Fitzpatrick +4000
Outright (72 hole score):
0.5u on Scottie Scheffler +1200
0.5u on Matthew Fitzpatrick +1800
0.25u on Aaron Wise +4000
Match ups (including adjusted strokes)
2.44u on Cam Young over Viktor Hovland -122
1.78u on Aaron Wise over Tom Hoge -178
1.22u on Scottie Scheffler over Xander Schauffele -244
0.66u on Rory McIlroy over John Rahm -132
0.625u on Cam Young over Joaquin Niemann -125
0.25u on Cam Smith over Sam Burns +100
Match ups (72 hole score):
0.635u on Cam Young over Sam Burns -127
0.625u on Max Homa over Brian Harman -125
0.6u on Tom Hoge over Sepp Straka -120
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds. I bet them as I write this so they are live within the 30 min or so of publication.
Programming Note
As I do with all my sports, I will be sending a season recap email in the next week or so and then will start my tear down and rebuild of my calcs in anticipation of the new PGA Tour calendar which starts Sept 15th with the Fortinet Championship, then a mini break for the Presidents Cup4, and then we start to fall season in earnest with the Sanderson in Mississippi.
Given that, you will not hear much from me on the golf beat for the next 5-6 weeks, but do NOT worry, you will have tons of NFL content coming your way and I will be back to cover golf once the season starts again!
Daily Fantasy
There are only 30 guys this week so I am taking a pass.
Good luck in all your action!
I get asked about FRL bets all the time and while my model doesn’t account for this specific permutation, as I have been saying on the discord and twitter, I always through a little bit of action on this bet and it worked out nicely this week with a 50-1 hit……but more importantly I WON A HAT!!!!!
A silver replica of Bobby Jones’ putter as East Lake was Bobby’s home course
I do not expect to have bets for the Presidents Cup as I will be traveling to attend this event