BMW Championship - Recap
A course record 61 to complete a MASSIVE comeback to win the BMW? Is that too much to ask? Not for Viktor Mother Fucking Hovland!!!!!!!! LET’S GOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! Our 9th outright winner this year and it feels so good!
If you won with us this week, I ask that you please consider helping to support this Substack!
We also had a small profit for T10’s as Rory also got to the top 10 and a minor loss for T20’s, mostly due to the ill-advised big bet on Hatton who was positioned really well until he went double, birdie, bogey, bogey to end his round and JUSTTTTT make the Tour Championship.
I also took a really small shot at the Handa World Invitational and while we did not get a winner (Congrats to those who bet on Daniel Brown who absolutely bossed that tournament) we did have 2 guys end up in the Top 10 so I will likely do similar again this week below.
The TOUR Championship
The PGA Tour completes its 11-month wrap-around calendar with the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. This tournament is restricted to just the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup Standings. This event has no cut and the winner of this tournament will win a LARGE paycheck and the title of Tour Champion, a 5-year PGA Tour exemption, and the Calamity Jane1.
East Lake plays to a par of 70 across ~7,350 yards. As I covered in my FedEx Cup Playoff explainer (bottom of this link) the majority of players will not be starting this week at even par, but rather an altered score given how they finished in the standings after last week’s BMW.
As we start to break down the odds this week it is important to remember that since the PGA Tour switched to this format there have been 4 FedEx Cups. Two of those have been won by the guy starting at -10 while both the 2019 and 2022 editions were won by someone further down, Rory both times2!
This is a challenging course and I expect the winner to have a score in the neighborhood of -20 as this is just a very long course so keep an eye on the good drivers. The question will be the scoring once you take into account their adjusted scores. Obliviously with a more limited field, we have more limited options, so given the complications of this tournament, make sure you keep an eye specifically on the type of bets we are making this week.
Last year we had a pretty poor betting time at the TOUR Championship, losing 4.8u for -41.8%.
Here are my tickets (about 7.4u of risk):
Outright (including adjusted strokes) - Look, I see value on Scottie +150 but I can’t honestly bet that so I am going with some small shots:
0.25u on Patrick Cantlay +2000
0.25u Max Homa +3500
0.25u on Xander Schauffele +3500
0.125u on Russell Henley +9000
Outright (72-hole score)3:
1u Xander Schauffele +1200
0.5u on Russell Henley +2500
0.25u on Si Woo Kim +5500
Top 5
0.25u on Max Homa +225
0.25u on Xander Schauffele +250
Top 10
1.35u on Xander Schaufele -135
0.5u on Russell Henley +145
0.5u on Collin Morikawa +200
0.25u on Si Woo Kim +250
Matchups (72-hole score):
0.785u on Tommy Fleetwood over Brian Harman -157
0.575u on Patrick Cantlay over Jon Rahm -115
0.3u on Jason Day over Emiliano Grillo -120
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds. I bet them as I write this so they are live within the 30 min or so of publication.
DP World Tour - D+D Real Czech Masters
Not Ziti last week, so let’s try for this week using 1.375u of our bankroll:
0.5u on Adrian Meronk +1400
0.5u on Nicolai Hojgaard +1600
0.25u on Adrian Otaegui +3500
0.125u on Alex Fitzpatrick +5000
Programming Notes
As I do with all my sports, I will be sending a season recap email in the next week or so (targeting 8/31 or 9/1) and then will start my tear down and rebuild of my calcs in anticipation of the new Fall PGA Tour calendar which starts Sept 15th with the Fortinet Championship, then a mini break for the Ryder Cup, and then we start to fall season in earnest with the Sanderson in Mississippi.
Given that, you will not hear much from me on the golf beat for the next 5-6 weeks, but do NOT worry, you will have tons of NFL content coming your way and I will be back to cover golf once the season starts again!
I will be publishing my NFL Futures newsletter on Monday, Aug 28th! It will initially go out to ONLY those who financially support the Substack and then it will be re-released on Wednesday, Aug 30, for everyone!
Daily Fantasy
There are only 30 guys this week so I am taking a pass.
Good luck with all your action!
A silver replica of Bobby Jones’ putter as East Lake was Bobby’s home course
He started 5th and 7th
I am targeting Cantlay, Morikawa, and Homa for parlays.