Recap - Mexico Open
Round 1 Recap - Some really good (Jaeger Bombs!!!) and some really bad (Luke List is going to be the death of me), but lots of golf left to play. Let’s see how today goes and we can have a decent assessment.
Round 2 Recap - Other than Piercy flirting with a course record not much went right for us on Friday. The silver lining is that we only lost List and went 1-2 on head-to-head, but we’ve got a lot of work to do at the halfway point.
Round 3 Recap - Well there is the course record but it was Rahm who did it. Saturday wasn’t nearly as bad as Friday for us but still leaves us with work to do as a bunch of our guys are sitting JUST outside the top 20. Let’s get it today.
Mexico Open Tournament Recap - Well that was super lame for us, but so fun to see Finau and Rham battle it out. I love Finau and it was nice to see him finally start to settle his nerves in the final groups when he is winning. As some noticed, last week I talked about my experiment looking to focus on Woodland and Finau and one follower turned $125 into over $1900 and someone else hit a +1175 parlay!!! Make sure you are following along!
Wells Fargo Championship
The PGA Tour now heads from Mexico to suburban Charlotte1 to contest the Wells Fargo Championship which returns to North Carolina after its one year in Maryland!2
This 156-person tournament takes place at the Geroge Cobb-designed Quail Hollow. The championship course, which hosted the 2017 PGA Championship and is set to host the 2025 PGA Championship, plays to a par 70 across 7,160 yards and includes the feared hole combination of 16, 17, and 18 called the “Green Mile”. Having been to Quail for last year’s Presidents Cup, I will tell you that this course feels and plays far longer than the posted yardage.
The 2022 edition saw Max Homa at 40-1 odds win his second Wells Fargo title by shooting -8 and beating Keegan Bradley, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Cam Young by 2 strokes. The 2021 edition was won by Rory McIlroy (-10) at 18-1 odds who beat Abe Ancer by 1 stroke and in 2019 Max Homa (-15) got his first PGA Tour victory when he beat Full Swing star Joel Dahmen by 3 strokes3.
The event's 72-hole record is -21 (an aggregate of 267) was shot by Rory McIlroy in 2015, which was his second title. Only Max Homa and Rory have won this tournament multiple times, with Rory winning it three times (2010, 2015, and 2021) all of which were at Quail!
Given that this is the first elevated event in 3 weeks and is probably the last big tournament before the PGA Championship so we have a really deep field but does not include either of the top 2 players in the world4.
Given this is an elevated event I am going with a bit more risk this time with ~11.8u risked:
Outright5:
1u on Rory McIlroy +750
0.5u on Cam Young +2000
0.5u on Justin Thomas +2500
0.25u on Sungjae Im +2800
T10 (0.25u each)
Justin Thomas +250
Sungjae Im +300
Wyndham Clark +550
T20
1u on Sungjae Im +110
0.5u on Cam Young +100
0.5u on Justin Thomas +105
0.5u on Jason Day +135
0.25u on Wyndham Clark +220
0.25u on Webb Simpson +3756
0.25u on Jospeh Bramlett +475
Matchups7
1.44u on Justin Thomas over Max Homa -144
1.44u on Beau Hossler over Brendon Todd -144
0.865u on Rory McIlroy over Xander Schauffele -173
0.765u on Stephan Jaeger over Alex Noren -153
0.67u on Cam Youn over Matthew Fitzpatrick -134
0.345u on Wyndham Clark over Brian Harman -138
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds.
Make sure you are coming over to the Gamblers Paradise Discord where we are chatting all things sports and better. The Discord is entirely free and there are a ton of folks on there talking about the bets they like, the games they are watching, and you can even get some of my picks early (like this week!)
Daily Fantasy
For those unfamiliar with Daily Fantasy, this is a game you can play (I use Draft Kings) where they give you a budget and use allocate that budget to golfers and use their scoring criteria to try and win money. The dollar values you see below are the “salaries” for each golfer I select. You can mirror what I do, do your own thing, or do some combo and as always I am just showing what I am doing, and is good for me.
Let’s take a fun swag ($50 worth):
Sungjae Im 9,100
Justin Thomas 8,900
Cam Young 8,700
Theegala 8,200
Clark 7,800
Webb Simpson 7,200
Good luck with all your action!
If you happen to be in the Charlotte area for the tournament, some suggested places to eat are:
Midwood Smokehouse - Generally viewed as the best BBQ in Charlotte and it does not disappoint
Steak 48 - Make sure you make a reservation ahead of time and have your credit card limits raised, but the food is AMAZING
Little Mama’s or Angeline’s - Two rather good Italian restaurants
Viva Chicken - This is Peruvian rotisserie chicken that won’t hurt the wallet but will make your tastebuds happy
Last year Quail Hollow hosted the Presidents Cup so it did not host its traditional Wells Fargo Championship
The 2020 edition was canceled due to the outbreak of COVID 19
Rahm is taking a week off after playing a few in a row, including last week’s solo 2nd trying to defend in Mexico, while Scottie is taking a pass as we have Texas tournaments on either side of the PGA Championship and, being from Texas, he always likes to support his local tournaments so this was his chance for a couple of week break before those.
I am doing less on Sungjae as he is one of the two guys I am targeting for my parlays this week (I want to get him 32-1 odds), the other I am targeting is Viktor Hovland (want to get him over 28-1) and if I get both of them I will look to add to my Cam Young position.
This one is not really supported by the numbers but this is his home course as his house is next to the 7th tee.
I tried to keep action under 12u of risk this week so if you want more action here are more matchups I like but didn’t make the cut:
0.3375u on Rory McIlroy over Patrick Cantlay -144
0.3u on Webb Simpson over Francesco Molinari -120
If you want even more action you can double the Rory vs Xander one, I only did it to win a half unit as that is laying a TON of juice and you could add more to the Hossler over Tood matchup