Recap - AT&T Pebble Beach
While we had a profit in Bahrain with my DPWT picks, we did not turn out to be so lucky at Pebble Beach.
First and foremost, I hope everyone in that area of the world is safe. The videos and stories coming from late yesterday and overnight are really quite worrying. It is hard to see/hear those and think about golf, but, alas, that is what we need to do.
Ultimately, the rain-shortened tournament1 led us to a 1.5u loss.
While a 1.5 unit loss is certainly not bad or noteworthy, it really feels like this could and should have been a bigger win (looking most of our guys moving in the right direction on Saturday in the wind, including Hosseler and Bradley falling JUST outside the Top 10) or it could have been a bigger loss (no one really contended and we could have seen guys fall out of the top 20.
All-in-all we cash a few nice Top 20 tickets with Hossler +175, Bradley +210, and Hubbard +375 to get us a decent profit there. We also had a tidy little profit in the match-up space, though it was quite something to see all of them (win or loss) be so lopsided.
WM Phoenix Open
The course:
The PGA Tour continues its West Coast swing2 as it heads to Scottsdale for its normal Super Bowl weekend party in the desert! Do you remember in Happy Gillmore (RIP Chubbs) where they are talking about how he changed the people who come to golf tournaments and how they are all rowdy and drunk now? Well, the Phoenix Open is pretty much exactly that in real life (tell me another tournament where this happens). Yes, that is something we need to take into account when we handicap as not every player can handle the ambiance that comes with this event or feel comfortable taking off their shirt the 16th green.
Thankfully we are done with the split courses now so this tournament is staged entirely at the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale. The Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish designed course plays to a par 71 across 7,266 yards.
TPC Scottsdale is 1,500ft above sea level so the elevation combined with the dryness of the Arizona desert means TPC Scottsdale has one of the longest average driving distances on Tour and plays far shorter than the listed yardage. Another note about this course is that the greens are Bermuda with overseeding of a strain of poa.
The other thing that is notable about this course is the amount of risk and reward that is available. A perfect example is that there have been 2 albatrosses on this course, including the first-ever ace on a Par 4 on the 17th; that hole also famously cost Sahith Theegala his chances at his first-ever victory. There is a whole article written about 17.
While the tournament always seems to have a really good field, this was a signature event last year so I expected this to be a bit of a softer bunch than last year and that has held. You are also seeing some defections after a rough few rounds at Pebble and the travel nightmare that is getting to Phoenix and then back to Cali for Riv next week.
Prior results:
2023 - 3rd-favorite Scottie Scheffler (14-1) won back-to-back Phoenix Opens shooting -19 to beat Nick Taylor (300-1) by 2 strokes
2022 - Scottie Scheffler (25-1) won his first professional golf tournament when he beat 3rd favorite Patrick Cantlay (16-1) in a playoff after both shot -16
2021 - Brooks Koepka (50-1) won his 2nd Phoenix Open when he shot -19 to beat 2nd favorite Xander Schauffele (10-1) and KH Lee (300-1) by 1 stroke
2020 - 3rd favorite Webb Simpson (14-1) beat Tony Finau (30-1) in a playoff after both shot -17
As always, Ron Klos has the list of winners and their odds going back to 2010.
Scottie will look to join Arnold Palmer as the only two people to have ever won this tournament in 3 consecutive years. Gene Littler, Mark Calcavecchia, and Phil Mickelson are the other golfers who have won this tournament 3 times. The last PGA Tour player to win a tournament in 3 consecutive years was Steve Sticker at the John Deere Classic 2009-2011.
In the 2023 edition of the WM Phoenix Open, Jason Day took home first-round leader honors after he shot a 65, on his way to a solo 5th place finish. After the first round last year, Scottie sat 3 strokes back after an opening 68.
The 72-hole record is held by both Phil Mickelson and Mark Calcavecchia who each shot -28 (256 strokes) in 2013 and 2001 respectively. Funny enough, both of those wins were their 3rd win.
This tournament took place during my “break” last year, so no official stats, but I did do an unofficial card on Discord and it included Scottie Scheffler winning so let’s do that again and have it count this time!!
The bets:
It is hard to see Scottie at 5-1 and think you want to bet that. Yes, he has won here twice in a row and he is the best golfer in the world, BUT his putter looked outright bad on Saturday. I said last week that Speith would likely be the biggest public pick and boy was he (along with Homa). In that vein, I will tell you that I fully expect that Sahith and Justin Thomas are going to be the super-public picks this week. Both have great course history and JT played really well last week. Look, it is hard not to root for either guy. Is that a reason to pass on them by itself? No. I could understand betting on them, but given their odds, especially JT’s, they are both passes for me.
Other guys I looked at this week were Sam Burns (the odds are way too short), Si Woo Kim (I do not like how he fell off last week, but he was a tough omission), Homa (he was a big no-show last week), Hossler (I really wanted to include him outright, but I had enough action), and Emiliano Grillo (he continues to impress me and his approach game could be deadly this week).
Given the above and the fact that we have the Qatar Masters (link to picks) this week I am going with ~6.9u of risk:
Outright:
0.45u Min Woo Lee 35-1
0.45u Benny An 35-1
0.31u Hideki Matsuyama 50-1
0.28u Adam Hadwin 55-1
0.26u Corey Conners 60-1
0.18u Mark Hubbard 90-1
Top 10 (0.25u each):
Benny An +275
Min Woo Lee +350
Rickie Fowler +500
Mark Hubbard +625
Top 20
0.75u Min Woo Lee +150
0.5u Adam Hadwin +185
0.5u Corey Conners +185
0.25u Beau Hossler +200
0.25u Rickie Fowler +210
0.25u Mark Hubbard +250
0.25u Billy Horschel +330
Matchups
0.635u Lucas Glover over Ryan Fox -127
0.6u Grayson Murray over Victor Perez -120
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds.
Daily Fantasy
I am going to discontinue this section for a few reasons:
First and foremost, I am not great at DFS and I want the stuff I provide to be as good/profitable as possible so trimming some fat
While I love gambling, DFS is not something I really enjoy
From the messages I get from folks, you all are already taking my plays each week and coming up with your own lineups (which are great!!) so this is a bit extraneous.
Good luck with all your action!
This was the first 54 hole tournament on the PGA Tour since the 2016 Zurich Classic in New Orleans
The PGA tour starts its main calendar with a West Coast swing (2 in Hawaii, 4 in Cali, 1 in Arizona), then it heads to Mexico for the Mexico Open before it heads to the Florida swing.