Recap - 3M Open
We aimed small last week and good thing we did because that was pretty much a shit show for my picks. Most of the dudes that I thought would be competing for the title (looks at Sungjae and Hadwin) didn’t even bother making the cut.
Somehow -1.7u was actually an improvement on last year, but woof. Really not a good showing. We did get Grillo home for Top 10 and our Top 20’s weren’t bad, but to have 6 shots at an outright winner and not have a single one really in contention is pretty piss poor by me.
Note: As you have seen the reporting has gotten quite long so I am collapsing Make Cut, Miss Cut, and Grouping bets together under “Other” in the above and going forward. I think this makes sense given how infrequently we make these bets. I debated collapsing T40 into that grouping as well, but given that onshore options are quickly coming to many states (including mine), I expect that this will be used more frequently going forward.
Wyndham Championship
The PGA Tour heads to Greensboro, NC1 for the Wyndham Championship. The Donald Ross-designed Sedgefield Country Club will play to a par 70 across just over 7,100 yards. This historic tournament has been played since 1938 and returned to being hosted at this course in 20082. Last year’s winner was -20 so continue to look for the score to be in the -17 to -21 range.
Being that this is the final tournament prior to the FedEx Cup playoffs, this tournament does not have many of the top 25, but what this DOES mean is that this will be the final opportunity for guys to get into the Top 70. While it is great to get into the FedEx Playoffs the more important thing for the guys out on the course is that if they do not make the top 70 we actually do not know exactly what it means given all the uncertainty with the next year’s format, but we believe we know that guys that do not make the top 50 will not be guaranteed to be in the elevated events for next year so this week can mean a difference in millions of dollars for the guys playing.
The 2022 edition saw Tom Kim (35-1) overcome a quadruple bogey on his first hole to capture his PGA Tour win and punch a ticket to the playoffs when he shot -20 to beat pre-tournament favorite Sungjae Im (14-1) and John Huh (200-1) by 5 strokes. The 2021 edition saw Kevin Kisner (-15) capture his 4th and most recent PGA Tour title, this time at 50-1 odds, when he beat Si Woo Kim (40-1), Kevin Na (40-1), Adam Scott (50-1), Branden Grace (60-1), and Roger Sloan (125-1) in a playoff, and 2020 saw Jim Herman (-21) capture his 3rd and most recent PGA tour win, at an astounding 600-1 odds, when he beat Billy Horschel (30-1) by 1 stroke.
The event’s 72-hole to-par record is -23 which was shot by Jesper Parenik in 1999 (played at Forest Oaks) while the aggregate 72-hole record is held by Henrik Stenson (2017) and JT Poston (2019) when they each shot -22 over 258 strokes. The course record is 59, which was shot by Brandt Snedeker during this tournament in 2018.
Unfortunately, we will not have Tom Kim is looking to become just the 2nd man to win this event back-to-back as he got hurt during The Open. Sam Snead holds the tournament record with 8 (!!) wins.
Last year at this tournament we had a very mediocre week with a 0.2u loss which accounted for -1.9% ROI. I am going to be going for 8.1u of risk for this card.
Outright3:
0.5u on Si Woo Kim 25-1
0.25u on Aaron Rai 45-1
0.25u on JJ Spaun 50-1
0.25u on Brendon Todd 65-1
0.25u on Andrew Putnam 80-1
0.25u on Nicholas Lindheim 100-1
T10 (all 0.25u)
Si Woo Kim +185
Brendan Todd +450
Billy Horschel +600
T20:
0.7875u on Si Woo Kim -105
0.7875u on Sungjae -105
0.5u on JJ Spaun +175
0.25u on Brendan Todd +200
0.25u on Nicholas Lindheim +200
0.25u on Billy Horschell +260
0.25u on Doug Ghim +275
Matchups
0.75u on Andrew Putnam over Nate Lashley -1504
0.67u on Hideki Matsuyama over Sam Burns -134
0.67u on Sungjae Im over Sam Burns -134
0.635u on Billy Horschel over Taylor Pendrith -127
0.32u on Chris Kirk over Taylor Moore -128
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds.
Daily Fantasy
For those unfamiliar with Daily Fantasy, this is a game you can play (I use Draft Kings) where they give you a budget and use allocate that budget to golfers and use their scoring criteria to try and win money. The dollar values you see below are the “salaries” for each golfer I select. You can mirror what I do, do your own thing, or do some combo and as always I am just showing what I am doing, and is good for me.
Last week went poorly so taking a pass this week!
Good luck with all your action!
Rant time - I have had the distinct opportunity to go to Greensboro on more than one occasion and pro tip, if you end up with a delayed flight keep an eye on the bar in the airport as they will still close up shop at like 7 pm and then you will be stuck with no booze.
Sedgefield has hosted this tournament on and off since its inception and it returned to this club after the course was restored in 2007.
This week I am going to focus my parlay action on Poston, Horschel, and Sungjae.
The numbers say that this should be a 1.5u play but given how poorly head-to-heads have gone recently, that we already have Putnam exposure and that this is one of those tournaments where really anything can happen I am not going to extend it that far