Shriners Children's Open - Recap
That was about as frustrating as a tournament as you will find for me. We lost 3.2u and that is not terrible, but the path to getting there was truly frustrating. We could not have been in a better position after Thursday including the FRL and a guy tied for 2nd and a couple more near the top. Friday was okay, but lots of missed opportunities though we stayed in contention. Saturday guys had all the opportunities in the world but could not get it done. Sunday out guys come out firing but melt late.
Now one thing I want to touch on is that I am always talking about coming to the Gamblers Paradis Discord and here is another example of why it is so important to come there:
Every now and then I take small shots at some first-round leader bets and post them in the discord. This time it was the following:
By not coming to the Discord you are missing out on a ton of really great content as well as the ability to chat and hang out with a bunch of really great folks.
3 Important Notes for this week:
In the reporting above, I realized the Scottish Open for the last 2 years was listed under the PGA Tour so I have updated the categorization to move those results to the DP World Tour bucket.
The tournament this week tees off late Wednesday night US East Coast time so make sure you get your action in!
There is no PGA Tour tournament next week so a recap for this tournament will be included when we resume at the World Wide Technologies, where we hit Russell Henley 50-1 last year!
Zozo Championship
The PGA Tour heads from Vegas to Japan to start a bit of an international swing with the Zozo Championship! The players traveling to the Greater Tokyo area will be visiting the Narashino Country Club1. This course plays to a par 70 over a distance of ~7,050 yards. This is a limited field of only 78 players with no cut so that will reduce what my card looks like this week.
This is only the 5th edition of this tournament, the 1st, 3rd, and 4th editions were played on this course while the 2020 edition was played in the US because of COVID.
The 2022 Zozo saw Keegan Bradley (30-1) start his resurgent year shot -15 to beat Rickie Fowler (80-1) and Andrew Putnam (80-1) by 1 stroke. The 2021 edition saw 3rd favorite Hideki Matsuyama (10-1 odds) win at home when he shot -15 to blow away the field as Brendan Steele (80-1) and Cameron Tringale (35-1) tied for 2nd a whole 5 strokes back. In 2020, when this tournament was played in the US, Patrick Cantlay won, this time as a 30-1 shot, when he topped bested favorite John Rahm (10-1) and joined 2nd favorite Justin Thomas (12-1) by 1 stroke. The inaugural Zozo was won by Tiger Woods (40-1) when he shot -19 to top 3rd favorite Hideki Matsuyama (14-1) by 3 strokes.
Last year, we had a 1.6 unit loss (-24.5% ROI) mostly driven by losses in the outright, T10, and T20 markets, though match-ups were positive!
Given the super small field and the fact we have the DP World Tour’s Andalucia Masters (link to picks), I am only going with 4.4u of risk:
Outright2:
1.1u Sungjae Im +1600
0.4u Beau Hossler +4500
0.35 JJ Spaun +5000
0.22u Joel Dahmen +8000
0.2u Ryo Hisatane +9000
T10 (0.25u on each):
Sungjae Im +190
Beau Hossler +350
Tom Hoge +400
T20
0.5u Nicolai Hojgaard +135
0.5u Beau Hossler +150
0.25u Tom Hoge +160
0.25u Ryo Hisatune +180
0.25u Joel Dahmen +220
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds. I bet them as I write this so they are live within the 30 min or so of publication.
Daily Fantasy
Limited field means a pass.
Good luck with all your action!
One of the unique characteristics Japanese golf courses have is that every hole has 2 greens and Narashino Country Club is no different!
My model shows some slight value on Xander but I can’t bet him at 7-1