Super Bowl LVI Picks
It has been an amazing NFL season and we only have 1 game left to get this wrapped up. I would love to end the season up for 40 units of profit so let’s close it strong!
Let’s start with some fun Super Bowl trends / stats that may not matter (I have heard great feedback on these):
This is only the 2nd time ever that two QB’s drafted #1 overall will face each other in the SB. The other was SB LV with Cam Newton vs Payton Manning
After 54 Super Bowls without having the team hosting the game playing in it, we now have it in back-to-back years, the prior one was won by the host team so we will see if this trend continues
This is the first Super Bowl in 19 years to not have Brady, Manning, Big Ben or the 49ers in it.
No player has ever won the Heisman, National Championship and Super Bowl in their career…..Joe Burrow is trying to do that within 3 years
Joe Burrow is looking to be the 3rd starting QB’s to have won a National Championship and a Super Bowl. He would also be the 3rd “Joe” to do it after Joe Namath and Joe Montana
Super Bowl referee Ron Torbert has served as an NFL referee since 2014. He has worked 10 Cincinnati games and 8 Los Angeles games in his career. The Bengals are 7-3 all-time with Torbert and the Rams 6-2 (Thank you to Rick Gosselin for this).
As Mina Kimes pointed out, The Rams D is great, except vs short passes between the numbers, where they allow 2nd highest QBR in football1!
Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams
Weather Report - It’s southern California. For those who have not spent significant time there the barely even have clouds! That said, SoFi has a roof should they want to close it.
Line Movement -
Open2: LAR -4 and 49.5
Feb 4: LAR -4.5 and 48.5
Feb 7: LAR -4 and 48.5
Feb 10 (publication): LAR -4 and 48.5
My two cents: I am surprised this hasn’t moved more. I expected this to go to -6 and when it quickly went to -4.5 I thought it was going to go, but it stabilized and moved back.
Titanic Model Output
My model’s rankings
Overall: Cin #11 / LAR #5
Offense: Cin #11 / LAR #6
Defense: Cin #19 / LAR #11
Other: Cin #9 / LAR #3
My model thinks this line should be Rams -4.1
My model says to pass as the difference in line is only 0.1 and well within the margin of error
My 2 cents -
Bengals - The Bengals have been playing pretty well so during the playoffs, but some things concern me. They are giving up 5.9 yards per carry and that was before they lost their big DT Larry Ogunjobi. I also think their game plan might be similar to what they did against the Chiefs, especially in the second half which was to try and stop the run with a light box and then dare the other team to pass against 7 or 8 people in coverage. They probably look at the Rams 2.9 yards per carry and the 9 yards per an attempt the Rams have had in the playoffs and deem this to be a good strategy. I would be remiss not to talk about the Bengal biggest weapon in this game……their Kicker. He is tremendous.
Rams - We all know the Bengals OL is bad and the Rams D Line should live in the Bengals back field and they have the one corner that can maybe go 1-on-1 with Jamar Chase. On the other side of the ball, I am not sure how the Bengals D is going to be able to hold up against everything the Rams can throw at them and I think the Rams actually get back to “goff” ball which is success in the run game with Akers and then play action off of that. I know I covered the Rams inability to run above but I (maybe wrongly) believe they can do it here.
Verdict - Hopefully you saw when I sent it out on January 31, I personally took the Rams -4 (-110) for 2.2u as I frankly think they are the better team and this is a bad matchup for the Bengals. I also have read / heard enough about how McVay has changed since their last Super Bowl. Per all the reporting, after they lost to the Pats, he took it as a personal failure as his offense specifically was entirely out coached. I think he has been planning for this day since that one. Give me the Rams.
Parlays, Teasers, and Others:
This will be relatively light:
Pending - 1.15u NFC SB Money Line -115
2.4u on the 1st Q under of 9.5 -120
Based on the great analysis by Mitch Moss3, we can see that the under of 9.5 has hit in 43 of 54 super bowls
1.3u 7pt teaser -120 LAR +3 / under 55.5
Player / Fun Props
What would a Super Bowl picks column be without some degenerate action on props?!? I am going to commit about 5u to this
1u +120 OBJ4 to score a TD
0.91 -182 Kupp over 80yard receiving
0.57u -114 Mixon under 60.5 rushing yards
0.55u -110 Tyler Boyd over 40.5 yards receiving (see Mina Kimes stat above)
First TD (0.25u each)
Mixon +750
Henderson +1500
Higgins +900
0.25u MVP Aaron Donald +1000
0.25 Any Time TD LAR D/ST +550
Any Time TD Chris Evans +1200 (Thanks Cousin Sal)
Fun Props :
0.25u Tails -105
0.25u Blue Gatorade +325
0.25u MVP Thanks First - Family +750
I am not betting it but if you believe the Simpsons can tell the future you should go with Bengals 34 - Rams 31
Mini-rant - Mina Kimes is an amazing football commentator who is bright, articulate and super knowledgeable about the game the fact she didn’t play football as (GASP) a female is completely unrelated to her ability to provide thoughtful and meaningful analysis on the sport we all love so if you are someone who wants to shit on her abilities you can go somewhere else with that crap.
I know some places opened LAR -3.5, but I use Bovada and BetOnline to pull my lines and they both opened at -4
I was wrong. When he was signed I thought he was cooked and if you have followed my DFS lineups towards the end of the season you will have seen that I have been all over OBJ. I think he will get in the endzone