This week we have the final major of the year and I know this newsletter is really long and that is even with me putting a bunch of stuff in footnotes to try to limit how long it would be.
I just want to take a moment to thank everyone who subscribes (both those who read for free and those who are paying / tipping). I started this space just over 9 months ago and I honestly didn’t know if this would be successful and the ever growing number of subscribers makes me think I am doing something right so thank you for trusting in me!
I unfortunately won’t be able to do horse racing this Friday, but will have Part 1 of my “Gambling Lessons Learned” series so be on the lookout for that right around 11:30am ET.
Scottish Open - Recap
Well our 8 week profit streak comes to an end with a 0.9u loss resulting in a -11.7% ROI. I do not like to lose, but I think losing is instructive as long as you take the right lessons from it. I look at Chris Kirk and clearly that was a bad job by me and my calculations in valuing what he was going to do. Those were bad bets.
Then I look at Jordan Smith and Tyrell Hatton. Both of them bogeyed their 72nd holes to fall out of the top 20. If either of them were able to make par then we would have had a winning week. If they both had done it then we would have been up 2u and had a 25% ROI.
This is not me making an excuse for losing, but as I like saying “Winning doesn’t mean you made a good bet and losing doesn’t mean you made a bad one” and sometimes the different between having a profit during a week is one stroke.
EDIT NOTE: The original version had a table that mistakenly was counting my two missed cut picks this week as losses (let’s hope not) so the table above was updated about 10min after initial publication.
The Open Championship
I am a sports pervert. I LOVE sports. I actively watch so many sports that my father in-law says he loves coming to my house because he is always learning a new sport (Who else is rooting on Team USA in the T20 World Cup qualifier?!?). I say all this because there are some cathedrals to sports and this course is one of them. I am talking about places like Lambeau Field, Fenway Park1, Wrigley Field2, Churchill Downs, Lords, and Madison Square Garden. That is not a complete list, but I hope you get the point.
Well The Old Course at St. Andrew’s is on that list. It is known as the “home of golf” as this is the very land where golf was first played back in the 15th century. Not only is this the 150th playing of The Open Championship (aka “The British Open” or “The Open”), but this will be the 30th time that it will be hosted at this historic venue.
ESPN had a great short article on this venue that begins “No other golf course has as many famous landmarks as St. Andrews -- its 112 bunkers and endless hills and hollows have been cursed for centuries, and many have their own names and legend”
This links style course will play to a par 72 and will be roughly 7,300 yards. It seems from reports that the course has dried out considerably which means we could see a pretty lows score win the tournament, BUTTTTT you predict the weather in that part of the world at your world at your own peril and if the winds pick up or those greens become rock hard it could be a nice challenge.
Let’s get to this week’s dance card (about 18.1u of risk3):
Outright:
0.5u on Shane Lowry +2200
0.5u on Tiger Wood +35004
0.25u on Ryan Fox +8500
0.25u on Seamus Power +10000
0.25u on Aaron Wise +15000
T10 (0.25u on each):
Joaquin Niemann +400
Seamus Power +650
Aaron Wise +900
Jordan Smith +1000
T20
1u on Shane Lowry +115
1u on Seamus Power +185
0.25u on Ryan Fox +250
0.25u on Sungjae Im +280
0.25u on Thomas Pieters +375
0.25u on Aaron Wise +400
0.25u on Keith Mitchell +425
T40
0.7u on Tiger Woods5 -140
0.625u on Ryan Fox -125
0.5u on Aaron Wise +110
Make the Cut
3u on Tiger Woods -1506
Miss the cut
1.25u on Phil Mickelson -250
0.5u on Bryson DeChambeau +110
Match ups
1.75 on Zach Johnson over Phil Mickelson -175
1.63u on Keith Mitchell over Kevin Kisner -163
1.18u on Richard Bland over Jamie Donaldson -118
0.695 on Sam Horsfield over Bernd Wiesberger -139
0.2875u on Luke List over Chris Kirk -115
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds. I bet them as I write this so they are live within the 30 min or so of publication.
So during golf tournaments I am actively chatting over at the Winners Row Discord server. There is both a free and a VIP portion to it. I am not involved in the VIP side, but you can find me there chatting about how I think the tournament is going, giving updates on our action and answering questions. If you want to come hang out come to:
Come chat with us during the tournament!!!
Daily Fantasy
Okay, it is Open Championship week…..Let’s go (I am going with about $100 of risk):
Fitzpatrick 9,700
Oostuizen 8,800
Hatton 8,700
Niemann 8,000
Power 7,400
Fox 7,100
Remaining Budget $300
Good luck in all your action!
I am a born and bread Yankees fan and I DISPISE the Red Sox, but you are looking at a wall with dents put into it by Ruth, Williams, etc. You can’t beat it.
It absolutely KILLS me that old Yankee Stadium is no longer on this list RIP
As I have mentioned in the past, I go a bit deeper and harder for Majors as I tend to be able to find more value as these are more liquid markets that tend to have more options (for example most weeks there are only about 40 matchups to choose from and this week there are over 70). If this is too much for you I would trim the miss the cut bets and T40 ones.
Keeping the theme from before, this is a bad bet. I made it months ago and I am mentally writing this off as I frankly do not think this this good value even at the current 66-1 let alone 35-1. Look, I LOVE Tiger and I so badly want him to win and if he has anything left in the tank for another major victory it is going to be a Masters or an Open Championship, and while I hope I am wrong, I just do not see him winning this tournament so I would not suggest tailing this until you are okay throwing money away on the off chance he finds some magic. I think we will eventually hear from Tiger that he is only going to play 5 to 8 tournaments a year, if even that focusing on things like the Masters, The Open, Bay Hill, The Memorial, his own tournament.
I am going to limit this here but I love Tiger so this is more of an emotional bet for me.
This was given out early via twitter and on the Winners Row discord around 6pm ET on 7/11. My thinking here is that he has been gearing up for this since the PGA Championship and we have seen that his body seems to be able to hold up pretty well for 36 holes, it is when he tries to go for 54 or 72 holes is really when he starts to fall off.