Week 15 Recap
What a WILD NFL weekend?!?! Colts blow a 33-0 lead, Dallas blows 27-10 lead, then the Buccaneers blow a 17-0 lead, and that wasn’t even the dumbest thing of the day…..that goes to the Patriots!
Unfortunately, the theme of the year of shitty week after shitty week continues for me.
We lost 3.5 units this week and the model accounted for 2.3u of it and my add-ons were 1.2u. Honestly it is going to sound asinine but week after week recently I have felt decent about the picks and even as the games are happening live, I feel good and then the ends of these games just kick me RIGHT in the junk.
Thankfully the Futures are doing us a favor:
The following futures settled1:
Christian McCaffrey under 1450.5 rushing and receiving - Loss
Chiefs to win AFC West - Win
Vikings to win NFC North - Win
We are really close on some (e.g., 49ers u10, Eagles to win NFC East, Russell Wilson to throw under 4050.5 passing yards so we should see more and more of these each week.
Thursday Night Football
Game 1: Jaguars @ Jets (Thursday 8:15 pm)
Weather Report - cold, rain, wind
Stat that might matter -
Jags are 2-5 ATS on the road
The net yards per play per the Jags home vs road is a huge difference
Titanic Model Output - 2u on the NY Jets (-110)
My 2 cents - I know a lot of teams will be focused on Lawrence throwing to come back against the Cowboys, but I think what folks are missing is the fact their rushing attack went for over 190 yards and that kept them in short yardage situations which completely neutered the Dallas pass rush. They will have a much tougher time against this Jets D, but they problem if you want to bet on the Jets is that their QB is going to be Zach Wilson again. I know Michael Lombardi pointed at Salah’s poor coaching, but Wilson is a liability to cost you any game, not matter how good your D is. That all said EVERYONE is blowing the Jags after they have won and looked good the last few games and leaving the Jets for dead. That is the perfect time to jump on the JETS and it seems my model thinks the numbers support it so as my buddy Fireman Ed would say…..J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!
My Picks
Jets ML -110
0.5u on Jaguars TT under 20.5 (-150)
0.25u on Trevor Lawrence to throw an INT (-139)
1u on 6.5pt teaser +141 Ravens -1 / Bills -2.5 / NY Giants +10.5
1u on 6pt teaser -120 Ravens -1.5 / San Fran -1
Reminder that I only book losses before things settle, I will not book a win until it fully settles.