Week 16 Recap
Hey!!! A winning week!!!! I am certainly not going to apologize for a profit when it has been so hard to come by for me this year, but it is hard to not see where we were Saturday night and not be a little bit disappointed, but as usually happens, holidays are SUPER public days1.
The model itself helped us pick up 2u of profit and my additional picks accounted for the rest of profit. Also, nice to see teasers continue to perform and it I still can’t seem to hit a parlay to save my life.
My overall performance took a sizable hit this week with the following futures settled2:
Aaron Donald over 11.5 sacks (he is likely out for the remainder of the season) - Loss
Lamar Jackon for MVP - Loss
Colts have been eliminated from the playoffs so:
Colts to win the AFC South - Loss
Colts to win the AFC- Loss
49ers to win under 10 games - Loss
We are really close on some (e.g., Titans u9, Eagles to win NFC East/NFC 1 seed, Russell Wilson to throw under 4050.5 passing yards) so we should see more and more of these each week settle.
I am hopeful we see a bit of a bounce back this week as we should have a couple winners settle and will have more detailed coverage in this week’s newsletters (starting below).
Thursday Night Football
Game 1: Cowboys @ Titans (Thursday 8:15 pm)
Futures Update -
Dallas - With 2 games to go, Zeke needs to average 36 or more rushing yards per game for the remainder of the season he will go over 900.5 rushing yards; Need Dalton Schultz to score 3 times (which we would have won had Dak not gotten hurt); Need Diggs to pick 2 balls.
Tennessee - The Titans have 7 wins with 2 games to play so we are going to at least push our Titans u9 wins ticket and that is a win should they lose either of their last 2 games.3
Weather Report - should be about 40 degrees at kickoff with temperatures getting lwoer during the game. There should be a bit of rain, but wind should only be in the 10-15 mph range.
Stat that might matter -
This game is meaningless for the Titans as their playoff future comes down to next week vs the Jags
Dallas has averaged 36 points per game since Dak came back
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Dallas -10 (-110)
My 2 cents - This should be an interesting match up for what these two teams do well vs defenses that do not do things well. First you have a Tennessee team that runs the ball as well as anyone against a Cowboys D that really struggles to stop the run without LVE and Hankins. On the flip side you have a Dak Prescott led offense against a Titans D that can’t stop me running routes (27th pass D by DVOA) and catching the ball (no, that is not a good thing). I know Jerry was on the Fan telling folks he expects Pollard to play, but I am hearing from my sources that it is unlikely he is going to play or won’t play much so that will help our Zeke ticket. I am also hearing that the expectation is that the Titans will treat this as a preseason game and bench some guys.
My Picks
Give me Dallas laying the points
0.5u on Dak Prescott over 240.5 passing yards (-135)
1.4u parlay -140 on Cowboys -475 / NY Giants -240
0.5u parlay +114 on Cowboys -475 / NY Jets -130
0.5u 7pt teaser +127 on Cowboys -3 / Panthers +10 / Vikings +10.5
Check out The Sharp Plays, he has discussed the stats on this multiple times
Reminder that I can book losses before things settle, but I will almost never book a win until it fully settles.
It is worth remembering that the Titans started this season 7-2 and have lost 6 straight to turn this from a loser into a push or winner. Look, I do not like telling folks what to do with their money and each person has their own risk appetite, but this is a perfect example of an ongoing discussion I have been having with a fantastic person on the Gamblers Paradise discord and why I do not like to cash out of bets. Yes, it will lead to losing tickets, but in the long run, not cashing out (unless something fundamentally changes with your analysis) is the way to have higher long-term profits.