We enter week 10 with exactly half of this year's regular season games have been played (136 of 272) so this is a perfect time to check in on our Team Futures.
Team Futures Check-ins
Team win totals:
1u on Carolina Panthers under 6.5 +110 - Feeling pretty good on this one, need 3 more losses in their remaining 8 games
1u on New Orleans Saints over 8.5 -140 - This team has been so up and down but I am not optimistic
1u on Philadelphia Eagles over 9.5 -155 - Should clear this easily as we need 2 more wins
0.5u on Denver Broncos under 10 -130 - Feeling pretty good on this one as only need 2 more losses to guarantee at least a push
0.5u on Minnesota Vikings over 9.5 -115 - Folks can keep calling them frauds but I am feeling good
0.5u on San Fran 49ers under 10 -115 - This one will be close and I think we might end up pushing this.
0.5u on NY Jets under 5.5 +130 - Credit to Saleh and the mean green; loss.
0.5u on Tennessee Titans under 9 -115 - I was wrong on the Colts and the fade here. While they are doing it with smoke and mirrors I think this is in trouble.
0.25u on Atlanta Falcons least amount of wins +450 - Arthur Smith made me look like an asshole. Well done by him.
0.25u on Buffalo Bills most amount of wins +450 - In the running but looks like the Eagles will take it especially given Josh Allen’s elbow issues.
Division Futures:
AFC South - 1.35u on Indianapolis Colts -135 - I hate myself and Matt Ryan; well done by my guy Dinero who was on the Titans from the get-go. He was right, I was wrong.
AFC West - 1u on Kansas City Chiefs +180 - Of the teams in this division, I feel the best about the Chiefs
AFC North - 1u on Baltimore Ravens +140 - They are starting to get healthy so hopefully they can go on a run and they have a rather easy run in
NFC East - 1u on Philadelphia Eagles +150 - They will be favored in every game they have left
NFC North - 0.5u on Minnesota Vikings +260 - They might have this wrapped up by Thanksgiving, but they have a stretch of Buffalo, Dallas, NE, and NYJ here.
NFC South - 0.25u on New Orleans Saints +300 - I was right that the Bucs would take a bit step back, but I thought Winston would have been better
NFC #1 Seed - 0.25u on Philadelphia Eagles +1600 - Feeling good about this one, but a long way to go and will need Vikings to stumble these next 4 weeks
Conference Winners:
AFC winner - Colts are dead in the water, but happy to have tickets on the other two clear best teams in the conference
0.5u on Buffalo Bills +350 (now +160)
0.5u on KC Chiefs +600 (now +280)
0.25u on Indianapolis Colts +1200 (now +15000)
NFC winner - I could not feel better about this than I do right now. I said I thought this was wide open as I didn’t buy the Packers, Rams, or Buccaneers continuing their runs and I feel pretty vindicated at this point
0.25u on San Fran 49ers +9001 (now +450)
0.25u on Dallas Cowboys +1000 (now +450)
0.25u on Philadelphia Eagles +1100 (now +175)
0.25u on Minnesota Vikings +1800 (now +625)
Super Bowl Winners:
Similar to what I said above, I feel pretty good about where I stand. I feel pretty good that I have the NFC winner in here and while I wish I had the Chiefs, I feel pretty good that I have two of the top AFC teams
0.5u on Buffalo Bills +600 (now +325)
0.25u on Dallas Cowboys +20002 (now +1400)
0.25u on San Fran 49ers +20003 (now +1000)
0.25u on Baltimore Ravens +2000 (now +1300)
0.25u on Philadelphia Eagles +2200 (now +525)
0.25u on Minnesota Vikings +3300 (now +1400)
There is a LOT of football left, but hard to be too unhappy with the above.
Week 9 Recap
Given the length of the above, I will keep this relatively short this week. We had another winning week so I am more than happy to start getting us back on the right track. That said, it felt a bit like it did in Week 2 or Week 3 when the 49ers killed us in a Sunday night game, but this time it was the Saints and Monday night. Had the Saints won, or at least covered, we would have had a really big week, but all in all, I am pleased with having a profit!
In week 9 last season, we had the 2nd worst week of the year dropping 9.6u. That left our season performance last year at +6.6u so while we are still a fair bit off from that we are making positive progress and the next few weeks were rough last year.
For those who were with me in the prior seasons, you will likely remember this chart. For those who are relatively new, what this shows is a line graph that tracks week-to-week performance (blue line) and overall P/L (orange line). Now that we have some data I will have this as a staple each week!
Thursday Night Football
Welp, so much for those good Thursday Night Football games…….
Game 1: Falcons @ Panthers (Thursday 8:15 pm)
Weather Report - It will be mid 60’s and rainy and could be windy as the storm blows into the Charlotte area
Stat that might matter -
Carolina has the worst 3rd down offense in the NFL at 26.7%
Atlants has the 4th worst 3rd down defense at 47.5%
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Atlanta -2.5 (-125) - yes, I bought the hook
My 2 cents - If I have to hear “Well these teams played 2 weeks ago and the Panthers should have won that game but they missed a PAT” one more freaking time I am going to scream. It is like everyone forgets they only had a chance at that TD because the Panthers completed a miracle 68-yard pass with basically no time left. If they don’t complete that pass Falcons win and cover! Ohhhhh also, how did the Panthers look last week trying to stop a running game? The Panthers got stomped by the Bengals and they have to be physically beaten up.
Give me the Falcons.
0.25u on Tyler Allgeier to score a TD (+185)
3u on Seattle Seahawks +3 (-115) - This JUST moved to 3 so I grabbing it right now and will have the right up on Friday
Added Week 3
Added Week 7
Added Week 3