Players Futures check-in
Offensive Players (Risk 0.5u for each):
Aaron Rodgers under 4100.5 Passing Yards -120 - He and his team both suck and he is on pace for less than 4.1k.
Jameis Winston over 3700.5 passing yards -105 - It is not great that they are now starting Dalton over a healthy Winston and Dalton looked quite good last week
Russell Wilson under 4050.5 passing yards -115 - He and his team both suck and he is on pace for less than 4k.
Matt Ryan over 24.5 Passing TD’s -125 - I didn’t realize how compromised his arm and that OL would be. Given he’s benched I am calling this a loss.
Ezekiel Elliot over 900.5 yards rushing -105 - This one is shaping up to be tight and his injury could derail it, but I feel like we will cash this as I think the break will help him.
Christian McCaffrey under 1450.5 rushing and receiving +115 - With how San Fran is looking to use CMC we are going to be in trouble unless he misses time
Dalton Schultz over 5.5 receiving TDs -115 - His and Dak’s injuries have this ticket on life support.
Marquise Brown under 925.5 receiving yards - 115 - I absolutely hate to win tickets because of injury, but it seems like it might have saved us on this one. I was clearly wrong with my analysis, but we got lucky here.
Defensive Players (Risk 0.5u for each):
Aaron Donald over 11.5 sacks -105 - He is not on track to get here, but I never count him out
Brian Burns over 9 sacks -115 - He should clear this number relatively easily.
Micah Parsons over 11.5 sacks -115 - Before the season I wrote “Call me a Cowboys’ homer all you want but he is a freak of nature.” Well, that remains true. He should clear this by some distance as he is arguably the best player in the NFL.
Myles Garrett under 13.5 sacks -115 - This one is NOT looking good for me.
Trevon Diggs over 4.5 INTs -125 - Given the QBs left on this schedule, I would be surprised if he doesn’t get there.
Player Awards (Risk 0.25u for each):
Micah Parson Defensive Player of the Year +900 - He is the prohibitive favorite now.
Jameis Winston Comeback Player of the Year +425 - I think this is dead in the water
Skyy Moore Offensive Rookie of the Year +1000 - This also seems dead in the water
Lamar Jackson MVP +2000 - He needs to start playing a bit better but his odds have gotten shorter since we did this ticket.
As we sit here right now I am projecting a small profit but there is a TON that could change between now and the end of the year.
Programming Note: Next week I will have a check-in on team futures.
Week 8 Recap
Well, we had a profit! It wasn’t a huge one, but given how Weeks 6 and 7 went I am more than pleased to see a positive number, and a ~13% ROI is certainly good enough for me.
As I mentioned above, I am calling the Matt Ryan bet a loss, and going forward in the recaps I will highlight if/when tickets are settled and will not book wins until they are fully cashed, but I might book losses early.
Another nice aspect of last week was that the model was positive (1.4u of profit) as were my personal additions (1.2u of profit). Let’s hope this is the start of a turnaround.
Thursday Night Football
Game 1: Eagles @ Texans (Thursday 8:15 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Jalen Hurts has not completed a pass while trailing in the 2nd half
Eagles D held Pittsburgh to 1 for 12 on third down
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Texans +14 (-115)1
My 2 cents - I think I have to start with the fact I am a Cowboys fan and seeing AJ Brown in an Eagles uniform is equally nauseating and terrifying. He makes plays in the NFL that are just shocking and even more so when you realize he is doing against a bunch of 99.999999% athletes. He is an absolute monster (in the best way). Last week I bet the Texans and boy was that a mistake. As bad as their defense looked trying to stop Derrick Henry, their offense looked worse. At one point they had games 73 yards on 41 plays. That is atrocious. The reason I am bringing this up is that the Eagles’ D is for real. I expect that they will stymie the Texan’s anemic offense, but my model thinks this is a pass and I agree.
Verdict -
I know all of #GamblingTwitter is going to be on the Eagles so I expect the books will need a Texans cover and if my model is aligned with the Books who am I to disagree?
I also wish I had the stones to go 0.5u on Philly 1H -7.5 (-110) and then expect the Eagles to give up the back door cover late but I am going to pass on that for now.
1.15u 6pt teaser -115 on Seahawks +8 / Colts +11.5
0.25u on Dallas Goedert ATD +1752
Note this play is barely playable at this number. If this drops to 13.5 then it is not playable. I also would not buy it up to 14, but if you have 14 and want to buy to 14.5 you could.
I will also be playing his first TD prop of +1200, but not officially as things have to be 0.25u to be official and this would be like 0.1u play for me.