Week 7 Recap
This week was once again not good. I will cover when to and when not to make adjustments in the Friday weekly newsletter, but before we dig into this week’s performance I have gotten a bunch of questions about “We did so well last year, how come we aren’t doing as well?”. Two answers:
Most of you are looking at our FINAL results and remember a smoother ride than we had. Here are the results, by week, for the 2021-2022 season (highlighted for where we are now for ease)1:
So yes, we are far behind last year’s place, but what you will notice is that by week 3 we were up 24.4u but after week 10 we were down money. So when you think of last year do not think it was all roses and rainbow unicorn farts.
That all said, I am just not doing well this year. -18 units is AWFUL, but it happens. You can naturally draw down 30 units in a season by sheer normal variance.
Can I guarantee we will have a profit by the end of the year? No, I cannot. Will I do everything in my power to try and get us there? Yes, and one of the reasons I am hopeful is that when I talk to my contacts in the gambling industry I am not alone in struggling. Many professionals have had a rough year and even the sportsbooks got spanked this past weekend. So no, this is not an excuse, but I am personally confident in my abilities and my process and all we can do is attack this week!
Last week sucked across the board and across bet types. Not much else to say about it.
Programming Note: the Thursday of Week 9 (11/3) - I will have a check-in on player futures and the following week (11/10) I will have a check-in on team futures.
Here are this week’s picks!!
Thursday Night Football
Finally!! A reasonably good Thursday Night Football match-up or at least one that should be decent! Okay, I know the Bucs’ offense hasn’t looked great and just got butt pumped by the Panthers and the Ravens keep managing to blow big leads, but when you compare this to the trash we have been watching on Thursday nights this wayyyyyyy better.
Game 1: Ravens @ Buccaneers (Thursday 8:15 pm)
Stat that might matter -
With Lamar at QB, the Ravens are 37-21-2 ATS in the 1H; lost the last 2 weeks by the hook
Per ActionNetwork, the Ravens are 0-7 on the 4th quarter spread this season.
Per ActionNetwork, the under is now 16-5 (76%) in the last 21 games on Thursday Night Football.
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Ravens -1.5 (-105)
My 2 cents - The Bucs got absolutely owned again, this time by the Panthers. This Brady season just keeps getting weirder2, but I think there is a fundamental issue with their offense as Brady doesn’t have slot receivers, tight end, and 3rd down back he can rely on. Their defense now has a short week to try to prepare for what is likely the hardest offense to prepare for. The Ravens did their level best to blow another lead and once again we got hooked on the 1H spread. Will I learn my lesson? NOPE!
Verdict -
1u on Ravens -1.5
0.6 on Ravens 1H -120
0.25u on Gus Edwards over 44.5 rushing yards -120
0.575u 6pt teaser -115 on Texans +8 / Washington +9
I hope you will come to hang out with us on the Gamblers Paradise Discord!!!
If you compare this to the report that was in the season recap for last year you will note there are tiny differences as I moved all the Futures tickets to their own line at the bottom.
Retires, unretires, disappears from training camp, doesn’t practice on Wednesdays, went to the Kraft wedding, and that doesn’t even get into all the personal turmoil.